S4C pundit Gwyn Jones believes Wales will just have enough against Japan in a game they simply must win
Steve Tandy desperately needs a win against Japan(Image: Huw Evans Picture Agency Ltd)
Wales against Japan is a match of huge importance. In only his second game in charge Steve Tandy desperately needs to win.
Everyone accepts the task of turning Welsh rugby around will take years not weeks but that process will feel a lot more positive if Wales can get a win on Saturday.
Retaining their 12th place in the world rankings is one reason why a victory is critical but for me there is a more pressing need for Tandy to register a win. After this match Wales will play, in order, New Zealand, South Africa, England and France. To my mind, the four best teams in the world.
Having conceded 50 points to Argentina, there is every possibility that something similar, if not worse, awaits Wales in the next few matches.
These four teams are on a different level and so we know pain is coming. The final match against the Springboks may be brutal where Wales will be without 12 of the squad selected for this match.
Italy and Scotland represent possible opportunities for a win in the Six Nations but on current form that seems rather hopeful.
So if Wales don’t win against Japan you wonder where Tandy’s first win will come from and then that becomes the narrative in every press conference.
We’ve been there before, we do not want to go back to that.
The amount of goodwill behind the Welsh side and the coaching team is palpable. The public have bought into the long term process of re-building that is underway.
But to maintain that positivity over what will be many difficult months, you need something to hold onto. A win against Japan would help keep the faith.
It is also pretty clear that the coaches selected the teams for the first two matches knowing that this was the main target for the autumn.
Nicky Smith starting with Carre on the bench is the way I would utilize those players too.
Nicky Smith (Image: Photo by Marco Iacobucci/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Obviously, losing Jack Morgan was a hammer blow. He was in imperious form. But I am surprised that Wales have not opted to pick a genuine openside in his place.
I may be biased but I think the number seven is a key position on the pitch.
Plus, at a time when you may be scratching around for international class players in some positions Wales have quality opensides available to them.
Tommy Reffel is a proven flanker who has been a linchpin in a Leicester PREM side that won the title.
You do not keep your place in the Tigers back row year after year unless you know what you are doing.
I am also a big admirer of Harri Deaves. He is aggressive, energetic and he makes an impact on the game. I think he may well be suited to Test match rugby.
My point is that opensides are born and not made.
Their role is ill-defined, they have the freedom to roam around the pitch patiently waiting for their opportunity to strike.
It’s instinctive, not learned. You can work on the technique of doing the perfect jackal all day long but it’s that innate ability to spot the opportunity and react that sets them apart.
Furthermore, Wales are great at producing these players, the line of succession is unbroken from Martyn Williams, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric to Jack Morgan. British Lions all.
Alex Mann(Image: PA Wire)
Alex Mann is a fine player who has much to offer. But he does not have the nose of a seven, sniffing out the scraps that can be turned into gold.
I also thought that for the type of rugby Wales are looking to play, an openside would be crucial.
And with Japan looking to push the boundaries of high tempo rugby, having a number seven on pitch might be able to slow them down from time to time.
World Rugby law change has opened door to a travesty
The aerial battle is another important element that Wales will be focused on ahead of this match.
It was a battle Wales lost against the Pumas and an ever increasing aspect of the game.
The law of unintended consequences is beginning to emerge after World Rugby outlawed players from blocking and protecting the catcher under the high ball.
I understood the reasons why they did it, but it has resulted in an unfair contest for the ball in the air.
There is an overwhelming advantage to the player that is able to run and jump for the ball versus the player that has to stand his ground and do a vertical jump.
Therefore, everyone is doing it and it is only going to increase. There are now more of these aerial battles than there are scrums and lineouts combined.
Tries are scored from them and soon the ability of a back three player to win these battles will be more important than their ability to score tries.
That would be a travesty.
I don’t think you can go back to how it was either, but my suggestion for consideration is that you extend the ability to call a mark to everywhere on the pitch.
If you catch it, you could take a quick tap and not be touched for 10 metres.
That might make teams re-consider pumping up the next high kick because they can’t think of anything better to do.
Back to Japan. I think Wales will win, not by much and not without some drama.
Japan are a delight to watch and coping with their breathtaking speed will be very hard.
But I think Wales will have the edge. The attacking shape looked good, the discipline needs to hold and the kicks need to go over.
But more than anything, for Steve Tandy’s project to have momentum going forward Wales simply must win.
Gwyn Jones is part of S4C’s live Welsh language coverage of Wales vs Japan on Saturday. Tune in from 5pm
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