The influential think tank that ran Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership campaign is canvassing party members on candidates to replace him.
In the clearest sign yet that the Labour Party is preparing for a change of prime minister, Labour Together, the campaign group once run by Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, this weekend asked activists for their views on contenders for the leadership.
A survey sent to local Labour parties, seen by The Times, prompted members to name the politicians who stood “the best chance of leading Labour to electoral victory at the next general election” compared with Starmer and to rank those they would be likely to vote for in a leadership election.
Eight senior Labour politicians were named alongside Starmer. The five cabinet ministers in the survey are Wes Streeting, the health secretary; Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary; Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary; Ed Miliband, the energy secretary; and Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the prime minister.
Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, is named in the survey
THOMAS KRYCH/ZUMA/ALAMY
Labour Together also listed Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister; Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester; and Lucy Powell, who was elected deputy leader of the Labour Party in October.
Respondents to the online questionnaire, who were offered entry into a £500 cash draw for their responses, were invited to place each politician on a “left-right scale” of “very left wing” to “very right wing”. The survey ended with a series of hypothetical head-to-head leadership choices.
Options given when The Times saw the survey on a number of digital devices included Phillipson versus Burnham; Phillipson versus Streeting; Burnham versus Starmer; Jones versus Starmer; Rayner versus Streeting; and Rayner versus Mahmood. Another question gave respondents the choice of only two leadership candidates and asked members to rank who was likelier to win a general election.
Internal polling of members’ views of senior Labour figures is not unusual. It is understood that Labour Together will convey the results of the survey to the party leadership and conduct further polling and focus-group research on the views of the membership on a range of issues in the coming months.
Wes Streeting was recently accused of briefing against the prime minister
WIKTOR SZYMANOWICZ/FUTURE PUBLISHING/GETTY IMAGES
However, their decision to ask whether Starmer is more or less able to win a general election than others in Labour, and possible leadership elections that do not include the prime minister, will only stoke already rampant speculation that the party is readying itself to replace him.
Downing Street briefed The Times and other outlets last month that Starmer would fight any challenge to his leadership, a move that prompted days of hostility between Streeting, who was accused of plotting a coup against the prime minister, and No 10.
Labour Together, which under McSweeney’s leadership spent hundreds of thousands of pounds on internal polling that helped the prime minister win the 2020 leadership election to replace Jeremy Corbyn, has such close links to Downing Street that it has been called the only “Starmerite” think tank.
Under Corbyn’s leadership, McSweeney used the group and its donations to fund research, which he eventually used to defeat the left in 2020. Since then Labour Together has focused its work on polling and policy that is broadly supportive of the government’s agenda. Until 2024 it was run by Josh Simons, now a Labour MP and Cabinet Office minister.
Morgan McSweeney, the prime minister’s chief of staff
LEON NEAL/GETTY IMAGES
There is no suggestion that McSweeney or any of the potential candidates named knew about the survey, which closes on December 15. Labour Together has made no public reference to its existence.
In an email to party activists this weekend, a senior staff member at the think tank wrote of “stellar pick-up so far” and offered £100 to any local party with more than ten members responding, plus entry for that party to a £1,000 prize draw.
As well as their leadership favourites, respondents were asked whether they preferred “Labour politicians who have principles but are prepared to compromise to get the best outcome possible” or “Labour politicians who stand by their principles no matter what”.
Other questions included the government’s performance on a range of policy areas, including Gaza, housing, defence, climate change, education, the economy and immigration, all of which are likely to be subject to fierce debate in a leadership election.
Members were asked their reasons for joining the Labour Party and when they had done so; past general and leadership election votes; how active they were in its local campaigning; their level of education; and postcode.
The broad-ranging survey is likely to give Labour Together a near-comprehensive insight into the views and composition of the membership, which is notoriously difficult to poll conventionally. The information would be invaluable to any politician planning to stand to replace Starmer, but there is no suggestion it was solicited on behalf of any one candidate by Labour Together.
None of the likely candidates named in the questionnaire have explicitly confirmed they have leadership ambitions, though all are spoken of as contenders in Labour circles. Only Miliband has ruled himself out, saying last month that his first stint as leader was a “very successful inoculation” against wanting to run again.
Ed Miliband says he has no ambition to lead the party again
TEMILADE ADELAJA/REUTERS
Discussion over the likely dividing lines in the next contest has continued to intensify in recent days. In an interview with The Observer, Starmer confirmed he wished to see Rayner, who is considered the “kingmaker” for the succession, back in the cabinet. The Mail on Sunday reported that Starmer had offered Rayner the job of education secretary in an attempt to dissuade her from challenging his leadership, which was denied by No 10.
Meanwhile, it emerged that the Unite trade union is considering calling an emergency conference to vote on whether it should remain affiliated to Labour. Severing ties would mean the union could no longer nominate a candidate in any leadership election and its members would lose their right to vote alongside Labour members. It was revealed this week that Unite was the party’s biggest donor in the third quarter of this year, despite its hostility towards Starmer.
Labour Together was contacted for comment.