Global smartphone shipments are expected to fall 2.1% in 2026 due to a sharp rise in memory prices, according to a revised forecast from Counterpoint Research. The research firm downgraded its earlier projection by 2.6 percentage points, with Chinese brands like Honor, Oppo, and Vivo facing the steepest shipment cuts.
The low-end smartphone segment is likely to suffer the most. Counterpoint reports that BoM (bill of materials) costs for devices under $200 have jumped by 20% to 30% since early 2025. Mid-range and premium segments have also seen increases of 10% to 15%. The firm expects memory prices to rise another 40% through Q2 2026, which could push BoM costs even higher by 8% to over 15%.
Average selling prices (ASPs) are also being revised upward. Counterpoint now forecasts a 6.9% YoY ASP increase in 2026, compared to its earlier estimate of 3.6% from September 2025.
OEMs are adjusting their strategies to manage rising costs. Some have started cutting back on low-end SKUs and reducing specifications on select models. Senior analysts confirmed that companies are scaling back features like camera hardware, display quality, and RAM capacity to preserve margins. Several brands have resumed using older components or redirected users toward higher-priced Pro variants.
Recent smartphone launches, including the OnePlus 15 and iQOO 15 in India, debuted at significantly higher prices than their predecessors. Reports also suggest Samsung may raise prices for its upcoming Galaxy S26 and current A series.
The memory crisis has already impacted other categories. Xiaomi and Honor have raised tablet prices in China. Analysts expect more brands to follow as DRAM supply remains tight due to growing AI data center demand. Counterpoint warns that brands lacking scale or vertical integration will struggle to balance profitability and shipment volumes in 2026.
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