In early 2024, as the IPL was underway and the country edged closer to the General Elections, a new breed of gaming apps surged in popularity, urging Indians to stake money on their opinions. Leading this pack was Probo, a platform that let users trade opinions on real-world outcomes — everything from “Will Rohit Sharma score a century?” to “Will this candidate win this seat?”
The model was simple: Get users to trade on the binary outcomes of future events. It also included innocuous questions like “Will it rain in Delhi tomorrow?”. Users pay a fee and buy into an opinion i.e. either invest in a yes or a no. The payout depends on the outcome, but also on the number of people backing the outcome.
At its peak, Probo was reportedly clocking over 1 Mn daily active users and was spending aggressively to acquire more.
“Probo was running more influencer campaigns than most gaming startups last year. Their reach during IPL 2024 was insane. They cracked Tier II and Tier III India like no one else,” a rival fantasy sports marketing exec exclaimed.
But as quickly as it rose, Probo and the “opinion trading” category is now on the verge of a complete collapse.
Founded in 2019, Probo epitomised this new breed of apps. It found a sweet spot between fantasy gaming, financial speculation, and social engagement. The startup attracted significant VC interest and reportedly raised more than $28 Mn in funding to date with marquee names such as Peak XV Partners and Elevation Capital on board.
Even as Probo claimed to be a “skill-based prediction exchange”, it operated in a regulatory vacuum — such games are not explicitly illegal under extant state gambling laws, but there is no clear regulation either.
Indeed, the skill vs chance has gone on for many years within the online gaming industry, and Probo is the latest startup to get caught in legal crosshairs.
Inside The Opinion Trading Game
While Probo remains at the centre of scrutiny, it’s not the only player in the opinion trading ecosystem.
Platforms like TradeX, SportsBaazi, and MPL’s Opinio have also been experimenting with real-money prediction formats. TradeX recently announced a pivot to a free-to-play model, while SportsBaazi and MPL Opinio have pulled the plug on their offerings in Haryana amid intensifying legal headwinds.
However, Probo’s name is top of the list because of the ongoing probe by the Enforcement Directorate, the apex economic offences investigative agency.
Most recently, the ED raided the company’s offices and seized its investments in fixed deposits and shares amounting to INR 284.5 Cr as well as contents of three bank lockers.
This after the Haryana Police had already attached the company’s accounts while investigating a separate FIR registered in March 2025. Probo claimed that the account freeze blocked INR 100 Cr in funds and appealed to have it removed, but this plea was rejected.
Incidentally, this isn’t the company’s first brush with police investigations. Back in January, Rajasthan Police had directed YES Bank to block transactions tied to Probo, following a separate complaint over an alleged fraud.
It’s not known whether the ED will look at all these complaints collectively now that it is investigating the company. Those close to the investigation claim that Probo collected more than INR 750 Cr through trade bookings during IPL last year.
Even back in 2022, Mumbai Police registered an FIR against opinion trading platform Probo under the Maharashtra Prevention of Gambling Act and the Information Technology Act, alleging the company facilitated betting on events like YouTube view counts, sports, and current affairs.
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During the investigation in 2022, Probo’s founders, Sachin Subhash Gupta and Ashish Sushil Garg, were arrested and later released on bail. Mumbai Police’s chargesheet filed in June 2023 named both founders as accused, but
Meanwhile, PILs were filed in the Gujarat and Chhattisgarh high courts, arguing that opinion trading is a form of gambling and should be banned.
In May this year, Probo had approached the Supreme Court seeking to consolidate these cases before the Bombay High Court. Later in July, the Supreme Court transferred a batch of Public Interest Litigations (PILs) challenging opinion trading platforms from various High Courts to itself, bringing all such matters under its direct consideration.
Any judgement from the Supreme Court is likely to be considered a landmark judgement on the matter because gaming rules have been the subject of great debate.
Who Sets The Rules For Probo & Co?
In June 2025, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) issued a public advisory warning investors against engaging with opinion trading platforms. Since then no official word has come about the status of opinion trading apps.
Online gaming is not a union subject and as such state governments have been left to decide their own laws pertaining to real money gaming such as fantasy sports and opinion trading, gambling and even other casual games. And while there’s been a lot of focus on fantasy sports and real money gaming due to the GST rules, opinion trading did not get the same spotlight.
Opinion trading fell through the cracks, said Abhishek Malhotra, founding partner at TMT Law Practice, indicating that it possibly flew under the regulatory radar. “It was not explicitly banned under gambling laws, and definitely did not qualify as skill gaming. That grey zone is what they have been exploiting. Added to this problem is the fact that there was never any strong court judgment or precedent on this matter,” he added.
Inc42 has written extensively about the problem in state-specific gaming regulations, which make it very difficult for startups to operate without a high operational burden.
States like Maharashtra, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Haryana among others have disparate laws for online games, complicating matters for startups.
As Inc42 reported in detail, the Haryana state anti-gambling law had specifically called out opinion trading apps and startups have to more or less get approved by the state before being allowed to operate.
Opinion Trading: Game Of Skill Or Disguised Gambling?
At the heart of the legal battle is a fundamental question: Are opinion trading platforms offering a skill-based game, or are they merely a new-age wrapper for old-school gambling?
India’s legal framework draws a sharp line between games of skill (which are largely legal) and games of chance (which are typically outlawed under state gambling laws). Games like fantasy sports and poker have fought long legal battles to establish themselves as games of skill and have largely succeeded.
Opinion trading platforms, however, muddy that distinction.
Petitioners argue that these platforms are not driven by skill, but luck and thus should be treated as gambling. The companies, on the other hand, insist that forming a strong opinion based on data, trends, and logic is a skill.
The stakes are high. If the courts rule that these platforms amount to gambling, they could be banned or heavily regulated under state laws. If considered skill-based, they may join the ranks of fantasy sports and rummy, surviving, though not without scrutiny.
But it’s not so clear cut — state governments are likely to appeal any ruling and on-ground enforcement will be left to the state government. According to Malhotra, state-level legislative clarity could give enforcement agencies like the police and the ED a much stronger footing to pursue action, both criminal and financial, against such platforms.
Until then, platforms are left in limbo. After Haryana, legal experts expect other states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh to consider similar statutory responses in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the ripple effects are already visible on the ground. The likes of MPL, TradeX, SportsBaazi and even Probo have scaled back or pulled the plug, at least in affected jurisdictions.
TradeX recently announced that it will exit the real-money opinion trading space altogether, pivoting instead to a free-to-play, socially interactive model. Probo and SportsBaazi have suspended operations in Haryana, while Mobile Premier League (MPL) has discontinued its opinion-based product ‘Opinio’ in the state.
Is opinion trading dead? The answer is still no, but at the moment, many in the gaming ecosystem might vote yes.
[Edited by Nikhil Subramaniam]
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