It’s all very Shakespearean. A tale of ambitions long harboured and oft thwarted – sometimes even self-sabotaged. The tale of a flawed but ultimately loveable everyman hero and a journey that may yet end in triumph or peril and seemingly few options in between. His fate hangs in the balance.
But enough about James from Traitors.
I jest, but the addictive TV series – some much needed light relief in what has been a very bleak January – has many a backstabbing and murder with people who will cheerfully say one thing to your face, another behind your back and a third thing altogether to the TV cameras. It’s no wonder everyone in SW1 is obsessed with the show. Nor is it surprising that overtones of the bard hang heavy in the air. Toil and trouble indeed.
After the chaos of Davos, I thought the main character of the week might be Falstaff – with Starmer getting as close as he can (which isn’t that close) to declaring “I know thee not old man.”
READ MORE: What hurdles would Andy Burnham face to stand for Parliament?
But after Andrew Gwynne’s resignation yesterday, the only show in town is the modern day Macbeth – with Manchester’s Heaton Park standing in for the ‘blasted heath’ and the man widely believed to have ambitions to rise through the kingly ranks is Andy Burnham.
My brilliant colleague Daniel Green yesterday outlined the hurdles that still stand in Andy’s way were he to take the leap and seek to be selected to be the Labour candidate in Gorton and Denton (and I think he will – this is Macbeth we’re talking about not the dithering Hamlet).
The main hurdle is the NEC who may attempt to block Burnham’s path. They might yet choose to block the ambitions of Burnham one last time by arguing that a by-election for Greater Manchester mayor would be just too much of an electoral risk and financial burden for the party to bear.
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But losing a by-election in Gorton and Denton, where Labour currently have a majority of over 13,000 would also be a serious blow to Starmer’s leadership. And a loss to Reform would be a significant fillip to that party’s momentum – which has appeared to be slowing of late. It’s worth noting that Burnham won 61% of the vote in Tameside – the district where Gorton and Denton sits. His personal popularity might help Labour over the line – ironically assisting Starmer’s leadership.
I can understand why the NEC might not want to have to put the party through a metro mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester. On paper, the reasons given make sense.
But when I have tested these lines with party members from a range of factions, they all scoff mightily at the thought that this would be the ‘real reason’. After the last minute deselections and attempted deselections just prior to the election, party members simply do not trust that internal factionalism wouldn’t be the key factor at play – and those I spoke to did not take kindly to that thought.
Party members are fractious enough as it is. And Labour needs its foot soldiers in better fettle as they head out on the doorsteps to fight a very difficult set of elections. Party unity isn’t just about the PLP – morale is important at every level and if members – who favour Burnham above nearly all other politicians – feel they are being denied due to factional machinations then mutinous mutterings might translate into a deeper malaise just as the party need the members to be energised.
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And it isn’t just Wales, Scotland and some of England having elections this year. An underrated factor in this game of 3D chess is that the CLP section of the NEC are up for election this year. So it won’t just be the voters in Gorton and Denton – or even Greater Manchester they will be thinking about as they make this decision – but how it might affect their standing with their own electorate.
It all makes for high drama. All we need now is for the NEC sub committee in charge to turn up in green cloaks. Or for Claudia Winkleman to take over and chair the proceedings. As the Traitors on TV make way for political intrigue we may well find ourselves just as gripped by the twists and turns by the latest Labour version of the roundtable.
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