Carlos Alcaraz became the overwhelming favorite to win the title at the ATP 500 in Doha when Jannik Sinner was eliminated by Jakub Mensik on Thursday. The world No. 1 will face Andrey Rublev before Mensik’s match against Arthur Fils. We here at LWOT give our predictions and analysis in this article, but which players do you think will reach the final?

ATP Doha Semifinal Predictions
Jakub Mensik vs Arthur Fils

Head-to-head: Mensik 1-1 Fils

Mensik’s prospects of a deep run in Doha seemed slim when he needed three sets to defeat Jan Choinski after an underwhelming performance. He then played better against Zhang Zhizhen before his superb showing to overcome Sinner. Fils also narrowly won his opening match against Kamil Majchrzak. That was followed by straight set victories against Quentin Halys and Jiri Lehecka.

The Czech’s serve will be crucial here. If that shot reaches the level seen against Sinner in the first and third sets, Fils, a much inferior returner, is very unlikely to win. With Mensik also possessing a slightly better backhand, Fils’s explosive forehand firing becomes even more pivotal. While the Frenchman’s talent means he has a chance against anyone, Mensik is backed to effectively build on the momentum generated from beating Sinner.
Prediction: Mensik in 2

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev

Head-to-head: Alcaraz 4-1 Rublev

Alcaraz’s three-set triumph over Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals was a high-quality battle. That was preceded by wins over Arthur Rinderknech and Valentin Royer. Rublev did not drop a set in his victories against Jesper De Jong, Fabian Marozsan, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Rublev’s game is not identical to Khachanov’s, but the powerful groundstrokes Alcaraz faced from both wings should be decent preparation for this challenge. Although the head-to-head is quite one-sided and the Spaniard has won their last three meetings, Rublev pushed him in all those matches. Alcaraz’s more complete and versatile game was what proved decisive despite the competitive scorelines. The ten-time Grand Slam quarterfinalist’s game has not evolved much since, which makes Alcaraz the more likely winner.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images