Ahead of England’s crucial Six Nations Test against Italy, here is how we think Steve Borthwick’s side will line up at Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
Borthwick’s side head into this round four meeting in desperate need of a win, following two back-to-back defeats against Ireland and Scotland.
The defeats themselves will hurt the head coach, especially given that they have all but ended England’s title hopes, but it’s also the manner in which they came that will leave him scratching his head.
Across both games, England conceded a whopping 73 points alongside 53 missed tackles, while also conceding four yellow cards to boot. Around that, their attack failed to fire, with Borthwick’s side notching 41 points across the two Tests despite dominating both possession and territory on both occasions.
Borthwick has since admitted he could make a number of changes in an effort to get back to winning ways against Italy, but the Azzurri will also be out to claim their first-ever win over England.
One change will certainly come at scrum-half, though, with Alex Mitchell set to miss the rest of the Championship through a hamstring injury.
Shifting focus
The backline could see plenty of personnel changes, with Borthwick likely to change the attacking style against Italy.
It seems a certainty that Freddie Steward will be axed after he was hooked on 39 minutes last weekend, which opens a spot at full-back. That in itself opens the door for a ball-playing option in back-field, which then invites a debate between Marcus Smith and George Furbank.
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In the here and now, it seems Smith is in pole position to start, with the Quins ace impressing off the bench against Ireland and also having more minutes under his belt than the Northampton Saints man, but Furbank could feature on the bench.
Tommy Freeman could also be reverted back to 13 in an effort to give more punch to their midfield, seeing Tom Roebuck come back onto the wing as a result. Seb Atkinson could also be primed to come straight back into the starting side, with his out-and-out aggression in the carry again something England will be after this weekend, but yet adds the playmaking skills this system calls for at inside centre.
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There could also be a new half-back pairing in the form of Fin Smith and Jack van Poortvliet. Smith, who will reform his Smith-squared combination with namesake Marcus, made a notable impression on the England attack against Ireland, getting playing at tempo and in slightly different pockets of space as well that saw them grab back two tries despite the heavy defeat. Van Poortvliet is also understood to be Borthwick’s next man up at nine, forcing Ben Spencer to come back into the 23 on the bench as a result.
Big guns
The pack will also likely see some major changes this weekend, as Borthwick turns to his enforcers to stem the flow. The back-row seems to be taking the spotlight on that front, with them being bested in the breakdown on both occasions against Ireland and Scotland.
Simply put, England will likely resort to their big ball-carriers against Italy, rather than their ultra-quick breakdown monsters. Ben Earl will therefore likely start at eight, with Tom Curry adding some extra ballast on the flanks.
The lineout has also been under pressure in the past two outings, which could see Borthwick change how he uses his number six and move Ollie Chessum out to the back-row with Alex Coles coming in at lock. Maro Itoje should also keep his spot in the side.
Jamie George also seems likely to come into the side at hooker, following Luke Cowan-Dickie’s early exit against Ireland, in a move that will also sure-up the struggling lineout. Joe Heyes and Ellis Genge should continue as the props, with England’s scrum firing on all cylinders.
The bench will likely be where the changes are most clear, though. Despite its success in the autumn, the ‘Pom Squad’ has not had the desired effect in any of the three Six Nations outings thus far and could again force Borthwick to turn to his enforcers.
Chandler Cunningham-South could therefore be set to profit from this shift in focus towards ball-carriers while Guy Pepper should also get a look-in, with the duo both excelling in those tight channels where England have failed to get go-forward this Championship.
Elsewhere, Theo Dan could also be set for a recall on the bench, adding another ball-carrier to the pack as a result, while Henry Pollock could also return to the replacements list to add his customary boost of energy in the latter stages.
Bevan Rodd and Trevor Davison should also retain their spots on the bench this weekend, as they have done throughout the Championship.
England predicted team in full
Starting XV: 15 Marcus Smith, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Seb Atkinson, 11 Henry Arundell, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Jack van Poortvliet, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Ollie Chessum, 5 Alex Coles, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Jamie George, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Chandler Cunningham-South, 20 Henry Pollock, 21 Guy Pepper, 22 Ben Spencer, 23 George Furbank
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