The ATP BNP Paribas Open gets underway on Wednesday in Indian Wells, California, with the first round throwing up some intriguing clashes. Indian Wells has a reputation for rewarding heavy ball-strikers who can handle the desert conditions, but the wide-open courts and occasionally tricky winds make it interesting. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule. But who will advance?

ATP Indian Wells Day 1 Predictions 
Martin Damm vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Head-to-Head: First meeting

Damm has been one of the more exciting stories on the hard-court circuit this year. The 22-year-old American wild card made the semifinal in Montpellier earlier this season, beating Hubert Hurkacz along the way, and his lefty serve creates real problems on hard courts. The ranking gap between the two isn’t massive, but Ugo Carabelli has been almost exclusively a clay-court operator in 2026, going 7-2 on the dirt while struggling on hard. Coming to Indian Wells off the South American clay swing, he hasn’t had much time to find his feet on the faster surface. Damm’s serving platform and home crowd should be decisive here.
Prediction: Damm in 3

Mattia Bellucci vs Gabriel Diallo

Head-to-Head: Bellucci 2–0 Diallo

Bellucci holds an unbeaten record against Diallo in their two previous meetings, including one on hard court. The Italian left-hander also arrives with some momentum after upsetting Davidovich Fokina in Acapulco last week, a result that gave him his first real confidence booster of 2026. Diallo, meanwhile, has been one of the Tour’s coldest players this season, going 2-5 on hard courts, with losses piling up against tougher opposition. His serve is still a weapon, but the return game and consistency on second serve have been liabilities. With Bellucci holding the head-to-head advantage, playing better tennis coming in, and historically knowing how to handle Diallo’s game, he looks the more likely winner here.
Prediction: Bellucci in 3

James Duckworth vs Dalibor Svrcina

Head-to-Head: First meeting

Svrcina earned his spot here through qualifying, beating Vit Kopriva in the final round, so he won’t be short on rhythm. Duckworth is a seasoned hard-court grinder who keeps the ball in play and forces opponents into errors. That style tends to be tough for younger players still finding their feet at this level. Duckworth’s experience should see him through.
Prediction: Duckworth in 3

Matteo Berrettini vs Adrian Mannarino

Head-to-Head: Mannarino 2–0 Berrettini 

Mannarino has beaten Berrettini twice, and his flat, lefty game is a stylistically awkward matchup for the Italian–it takes away time and disrupts the big forehand. Berrettini has had a slow start to 2026, going 1-2 on South American clay and hasn’t played competitively on hard courts since late last year. Until he finds his hard-court footing again, it’s difficult to back him against a player who has his number.
Prediction: Mannarino in 2 

Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images