Traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz has almost completely stopped after Iran’s threatened to “set fire” to ships, with about 200 tankers effectively stranded.
Meanwhile, insurance premiums, particularly on vessels considered American, British, or Israeli, have risen significantly because of the perceived higher risk of attack.
Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows the cost of hiring a supertanker to move oil from the Middle East to China reached an all-time high on Monday of more than $400,000 (£298,300) per day, almost double the cost last week.
Sanne Manders, president of logistics technology platform Flexport, says rising fuel costs means carriers are likely to start raising rates globally, not just in the Middle East, as transport becomes more expensive.
The vast majority of the world’s traded goods are transported by sea. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), shipping costs are an “important driver of inflation”.
But while rises can affect prices of imports at the dock within a few months, the impact on prices at the cash register “builds up more gradually, hitting its peak after 12 months”, it said in analysis from 2022.
The IMF said this week it was “too early” to assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the region and globally, as this will depend on its extent and duration.