Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 5, 2026 in New York City.
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Crude oil prices
Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told The Financial Times that Gulf energy producers may need to call force majeure in the coming days, shutting down production in a move that could send oil to $150 a barrel. The conflict in the Middle East could “bring down the economies of the world,” he warned.
“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” the energy minister said. “Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”
The bands between the high-end and the low-end of oil prices “have widened out significantly,” according to Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management. Even if you haircut al-Kaabi’s projection by 20%, prices are still at levels that are “scary as hell,” he added.
“If I’m a trader … I’m not real pumped about owning a bunch of economically sensitive stocks through a weekend at war with Iran, with President Trump’s volatility and unpredictability,” Ellerbroek said. “I think the longer this goes on, the more it will seep into stock market behavior.”
Shares of Royal Caribbean, which has fallen 14% this week amid increasing fuel costs, fell again on Friday, dropping 5%. Caterpillar shares, which have also suffered this week, were down 2%.
Equities were also bogged down by the latest jobs data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, a sharp contrast from the downwardly revised January gain of 126,000 and far below the growth of 50,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones expected for the month. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.
“The headline number was very disappointing and will feed worries that the labor market – despite the strong January jobs report – is softening,” said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion. “With energy prices moving higher of late, we wouldn’t be surprised to hear some talk on Wall Street of stagflation – that toxic 70s mix of slowing growth and rising inflation.”
This week, the S&P 500 is on pace to shed more than 1%, while the 30-stock Dow has fallen 3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is tracking for a loss of 0.5%.