The Athletic has live coverage of Arsenal vs. Bayer Leverkusen and Manchester City vs. Real Madrid from Champions League action.
It was a chastening first week in the Champions League round of 16 for most of the six Premier League teams involved.
Relegation-threatened Tottenham Hotspur were thrashed 5-2 by Atletico Madrid at their Metropolitano stadium — with goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky subbed off by interim coach Igor Tudor after just 17 minutes with Atleti 3-0 up.
Across the Spanish capital, Manchester City were beaten 3-0 by a Federico Valverde-inspired Real Madrid. Chelsea were thumped 5-2 by Paris Saint-Germain at the Parc des Princes. Liverpool were beaten 1-0 at Galatasaray, while even league leaders Arsenal had to rely on a late Kai Havertz penalty against his former club Bayer Leverkusen to salvage a 1-1 draw.
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Perhaps the only side with real positives to take from their performance were Newcastle United, who were 1-0 up against Spanish champions Barcelona at St James’ Park until Dani Olmo was felled for a 96th-minute penalty that was converted by Lamine Yamal.
Much has been made of the meaning behind those results — are Premier League sides just exhausted, or do they not have a leg to stand on given the riches of the English top flight? Amid all that, however, there are still second legs to be played.
Here, The Athletic analyses the Premier League teams’ chances of progressing to the quarter-finals.
Chelsea (5-2 down to Paris Saint-Germain)Why they can still go through:
Chelsea showed in the first leg they can create lots of chances and score goals. They also beat the same opposition 3-0 in the revamped Club World Cup final in New Jersey in July, a scoreline that would be enough to take this tie into extra time. At that point, it would be all to play for.
Chelsea were thrashed in Paris (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Why they won’t:Â
They are just not good enough defensively — and it is hard to see holders PSG being shut out.
Chelsea have kept only one clean sheet in their past 13 games and the visitors will pose a big threat themselves. Chelsea’s goalkeeping options do not inspire much confidence either right now, as Filip Jorgensen showed in the first leg in the French capital.
Simon Johnson
Manchester City (3-0 down to Real Madrid)Why they can still go through:Â
Largely because football is unpredictable — but City are not as bad as last week suggests, while Madrid are not as good. An early goal could work wonders, but it would be an incredible effort for Pep Guardiola’s side to score freely and keep Madrid out at the Etihad.
Why they won’t:Â
Well… one key and obvious detail is that, if Madrid score, City need to respond with even more goals. Guardiola’s team miss so many chances, or mess up the last pass so often, that this seems unlikely.
Sam Lee
Arsenal (1-1 with Bayer Leverkusen)Why they can still go through:Â
That late Havertz equaliser at the BayArena puts Arsenal in a strong position ahead of the second leg at the Emirates.
Mikel Arteta’s team have a formidable home record in Europe — they have lost just one Champions League game at home during the Spaniard’s time in charge — and confidence is high after the 2-0 win against Everton on Saturday.
Kai Havertz’s late penalty meant Arsenal avoided defeat at Bayer Leverkusen (Federico Gambarini/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Why they won’t:
Leverkusen showed during the first leg that they are a disciplined team with considerable tactical acumen. Arsenal can struggle to break down organised defences, so things could get nervy.
The Bundesliga side also pose a considerable threat from set pieces — an aspect of the game Arsenal know can be a difference-maker.
James McNicholas
Newcastle United (1-1 with Barcelona)Why they can still go through:
Newcastle have proven they can really unsettle Barcelona, having faced them twice on Tyneside this season. The pace of Anthony Gordon, Anthony Elanga and Harvey Barnes makes them ideally suited to exploiting Hansi Flick’s notoriously high line.
While Eddie Howe’s team have experienced a rollercoaster season, they have been able to raise their performances on the big occasions against some of the best sides — including against Chelsea on Saturday.
Harvey Barnes celebrates his opener against Barcelona at St James’ Park (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Why they won’t:Â
Barca’s imperious home form. The Catalans have won 17 of 18 Champions League and La Liga matches at the Camp Nou this season, losing just once, scoring 59 goals and conceding just 13 times.
Newcastle have only won seven away games in all competitions this season and the only teams they were able to beat on the road over the past two European campaigns have been Belgium’s Union Saint-Gilloise and Azerbaijani side Qarabag.
Chris Waugh
Tottenham Hotspur (5-2 down to Atletico Madrid)Why they can still go through:
Spurs have history for recovering from three goals down in a Champions League knockout game — remember that night in Amsterdam? — while Atleti nearly blew a 4-0 first-leg lead over Barcelona in their recent Copa del Rey semi-final.
If Spurs can cut out the defensive mistakes, the first leg demonstrated they can hurt Atleti in the final third. Plus, they finally have some confidence and a degree of momentum under Tudor following a scrappy 1-1 draw at Liverpool.
Tottenham Hotspur interim coach Igor Tudor was pleased with his side’s point against Liverpool (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
Why they won’t:
Despite nearly collapsing against Barca, Atleti are experienced at disrupting opponents and protecting a lead, and should be well-equipped to frustrate a potential comeback.
Spurs remain low on quality, heavily depleted by injuries and look far more able to stop opponents than take the game to them. The bottom line, though, is that Tudor’s side are prioritising staying in the Premier League and should have one eye on Sunday’s relegation six-pointer against Nottingham Forest.
Dan Kilpatrick
Liverpool (1-0 down to Galatasaray)Why they can still go through:Â
It’s Liverpool, at Anfield, in a Champions League knockout tie under the lights.
Despite the struggles of this season, there is still plenty of individual quality in the squad. Galatasaray have lost four of their five away games in this year’s competition, including to Juventus in the last round. While the Turkish side progressed after extra time, they were losing 3-0 at full time, despite playing with an extra man for most of the second half.
Why they won’t:
Have you seen Arne Slot’s side this season? As the match against Tottenham showed, it is impossible to trust them to do anything.
They have not scored against Galatasaray in either game so far. As for that Anfield factor, Liverpool have won only one of their past eight Champions League knockout ties at home.
Andy Jones