Politicians and employers in Guernsey are sounding alarm bells ahead of what they describe as an impending “employment crisis”.

Emails leaked to ITV News reveal fears circulating among local politicians of “a train crash coming” in the next few weeks, when many of the island’s temporary workers will be forced to leave.

It comes as a lot of ‘short-term permits’ (STEP) – the licences which allow people to move to work and live in Guernsey for three years – which were granted under a series of population management changes in April 2023, will soon expire.

The emails further detail a backlog with processing new STEP applications at the Population Management Department.

With many of the island’s hospitality and social care staff employed on these permits, employers are concerned they will be left unable to replace the staff they lose ahead of the busy summer season.

Guernsey made major changes to its population management in April 2023.

The island used to have three housing permits available:

A three-year short-term permit;

A five-year medium-term permit;

An eight-year long-term permit.

In 2023, to rein in immigration and update the island’s rules in the wake of Brexit, the medium-term permits were scrapped.

Garin Dart, Chair of the Confederation of Guernsey Industry and Manager at Le Pommier Hotel, says the situation is worrying for employees and employers alike.

“I think a lot of hoteliers are sad that a lot of staff are being asked to leave when they’ve been on the island and contributing for so long”, he explains, adding that the current backlog at Population Management means it can take up to 12 months to get new STEP licences through.

“If you’re waiting for an answer – obviously on both sides, employers and employees – there’s anxiety there over whether you’ve got your licence, and how long for.”

Will Haegeland, General Manager at the Pandora and Marton Hotels, says his business is encountering similar difficulties.

“I have staff who are coming to the end of their three years, which I then have to start looking at ‘how am I going to replace them?'”, he explains.

“If we could employ local people, we would – but every time we recruit, we don’t get any local applications. So we have to go abroad and that obviously takes big costs, and a more lengthy process to get people until they can actually start working.”

Some politicians are now floating the idea of extending those STEP licences due to expire next month to four years, giving the Population Management department time to clear the backlog.

Deputy Chris Blin says it is an interim solution he is “very much behind”.

“The worry is now that businesses are struggling, and certain businesses have key staff they need to extend”, he explains.

“So currently I’ve been working alongside Population Management and the President of Home Affairs to ensure we do the best we can to find solutions to make this work, especially with the season right upon us.”

Garin and Will both say they would also be in favour of making this change.

“One thing I raised with Population Management was if you had that extra year, then that could be getting someone up to a managerial level with that extra training, where they could then be able to apply for a longer-term licence”, Garin explains.

Will agrees, adding, “As employers, we want to have positive HR policies that care about people. We want to develop our people, and we want to retain them. But here, we can’t.”

When asked about the possibility of an extension, Deputy Marc Leadbeater, President of the Committee for Home Affairs, said: “The last thing we would want is to put undue pressure on our valuable hospitality sector at the start of the summer season, but the short-term nature of a STEP is fundamental.

“Three years was previously identified as a red line, creating an inevitable churn in the workforce, but with the opportunity still open to continue to recruit replacement staff from overseas if needed.

“Out of policy applications provide much-needed flexibility in the regime, but it is important that this is only used in exceptional circumstances.

“At our meeting on Tuesday, we agreed to explore a temporary extension policy to the existing three-year STEP while a more comprehensive review of the cap is considered as part of the planned wider works on the population regime. We are also going to look at resourcing in the Population Management Office.

“While we are going into this work with a genuinely open mind, STEPs are, as the name suggests, short-term, and so we’d encourage businesses with staff coming to the end of a STEP to consider starting recruitment processes in good time.”

Reporting History sees journalists join News At Ten anchor Tom Bradby to revisit their remarkable on-the-day reports of the defining events of the modern age. Listen to the episodes below…