Labour, Plaid and Reform all see changes in support as race for the Senedd tightens – major new poll shows
18:08, 24 Mar 2026Updated 22:30, 24 Mar 2026
First Minister Eluned Morgan, Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and Reform leader Dan Thomas
A new poll from YouGov ahead of the Wales election on May 7 this year shows Plaid Cymru is on track to be the biggest party in the Senedd and could get 43 of the 96 available seats. The poll, released tonight (Tuesday, March 24), shows First Minister Eluned Morgan is projected to lose her seat.
Reform UK is projected to take 30 seats, up from the two it holds now, with 27% of those asked saying they would vote for the party.
The Green Party is projected to get 12% of the vote, which translates into ten seats. The Conservatives, totally wiped out in the general election in 2024 in Wales, are on track to win only one seat. Darren Millar, the group leader, would be the only remaining Tory in Wales according to this projection.
It is equally bad news for the Lib Dems. This polling suggests they would fail to get their sole MS, Jane Dodds elected as just 5% of those asked said they would vote for them.
The YouGov poll conducted for ITV Wales and Cardiff University found that the projected support for each party is as follows:Plaid Cymru: 33%Reform UK: 27%Labour: 13%Greens: 12%Conservatives: 7%Lib Dems: 5%Analysis from Cardiff University suggests that would translate into the following number of seats for each partyPlaid Cymru: 43 seatsReform: 30 seatsWelsh Labour: 13 seatsThe Green Party: 10 seatsThe Conservative Party: One seatLib Dems: No seats
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “This poll points to a narrowing in the race for largest party between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK since the last ITV Cymru poll, but adds further evidence that the contest to form the next government is firmly between these two parties.
“Plaid Cymru remain in the strongest position — not only are they projected to be the largest party, but if short of a majority they have more options for coalition partners. Reform faces far greater constraints, yet there should be no mistake: winning a third of seats would represent a remarkable result.
“The poll also suggests that the race for third place is now firmly between Labour and the Greens. Labour’s position has improved marginally since January, supported by improving underlying evaluations of UK government performance and a modest recovery in ratings for Keir Starmer from their historic January low.
“The Greens will be encouraged that they have maintained a strong position in Wales, building on their success in England. Notably, their rise does not appear to have come at Plaid Cymru’s expense, suggesting the two parties are drawing support from largely separate pools of voters.
“The results also point clearly to a near-supermajority for progressive parties in the Senedd.
“For the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, this poll illustrates how the new electoral system can punish even small changes in vote share with disproportionate losses in seats.
“For the Conservatives, a modest further shift of voters towards Reform could result in near-electoral wipeout — and, somewhat ironically, potentially reduce Reform’s own capacity to form a government.
“For the Liberal Democrats, even without significant losses among their existing Welsh voters, a marginally stronger Labour showing combined with a solid Green performance effectively raises the threshold of votes required to win a seat in any constituency across Wales.”
Despite a drop in vote share to 33% compared to the last equivalent vote, Plaid Cymru is still on course to be the largest party with a projection suggesting it could win 43 seats, leaving Rhun ap Iorwerth six short of forming an overall majority in the Senedd.
An increase for Labour puts them third on 13% resulting in 12 seats, meaning Eluned Morgan’s party would not elect anyone in four constituencies including Ceredigion Penfro where the Welsh Labour leader has chosen to stand.
The Senedd election on May 7 is the first being fought on a new electoral system, and new constituency boundaries. It is also the first to elect 96, not 60 Senedd members. You can read all about the changes here.
It is the latest poll which projects a huge change in Welsh politics at the Senedd election takes place on May 7, 2026.
The last time Labour had more than 40% of the vote in equivalent polls was in May 2023, since then, there has been a steady decline in projected support, with numbers dropping to 10% in January 2026, the last time there was an equivalent poll by YouGov and ITV Cymru Wales.
And this graph tracks how YouGov Senedd intention polls have changed since 2014:
Plaid Cymru has been performing at its best ever levels in a devolved election for a number of months and is likely to be the biggest party. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
And Reform UK, which hasn’t stood in a national election so far in Wales, is projected to take its first elected seats. It has two Senedd members currently, both defected from the Conservatives.
The move away from Labour isn’t just being seen at a Senedd election, but a Westminster one too.
Not all parties have yet published their candidate lists or manifestos ahead of the election in May.
A Welsh Labour source said: “We’re getting out on the doorstep and what we’re hearing isn’t what’s reflected in these polls. We’ve been up front about the work we need to do and the need to regain people’s faith, but our positive message is getting out there – £4bn for new hospitals, tackling the cost of living and supporting families across Wales.
“We have a realistic, deliverable plan, which is more than other parties can say.”