IFS warns Tory manifesto may not ‘survive contact with reality’published at 10:24 BST
10:24 BST
Phil Sim
Scotland political correspondent
For a party with the word “conservative” in its name,
the Tory proposals are really quite radical.
By 2031-32 they envisage spending an extra £6bn a year on tax cuts
for people and businesses, extra school staff and NHS capacity.
That’s to be paid for with £6bn worth of cuts from things like
disability payments, the civil service and the cost of running government.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has pointed out that meeting
these savings targets will be challenging, and that while the plan may be
costed on paper, “whether it would survive contact with reality is far
from clear”.
They said “giveaways on the scale proposed by the Scottish
Conservatives cannot credibly be funded largely through back-office and
administrative savings”, saying there would likely also need to be
“substantial cutbacks” to public services too.
There’s also the point that the manifesto complains about a
looming £5bn gap between spending and available funding by the end of next
term, saying the nation’s finances are not sustainable.
But almost every penny of savings the party proposes making is
then committed to new spending, rather than filling this gap.
This is not austerity politics or small government by any means –
it’s a plan which would entail massive changes, which would be challenging to
deliver.