How much state pension could rise in 2026 with inflation set to hit 4%

The state pension rises every April, with the triple lock mechanism determining the amount

New information on how much the state pension could rise by in April has become clear after the Bank of England forecast inflation could hit 4 per cent in September.

The state pension rises each spring by the highest of earnings growth, inflation, or 2.5 per cent under the triple lock mechanism.

The inflation figure used by the Government is September’s consumer prices index (CPI) measurement.

The Bank’s forecast suggests inflation will peak then at 4 per cent.

But the state pension could still rise by far more than this, as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Government’s Budget Watchdog, forecasts that average earnings growth in the year to May and July – the relevant figure for the triple lock – will be 4.6 per cent.

This would trump the 4 per cent CPI figure and give pensioners an inflation-busting pension rise.

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, said: “Pensioners have something to cheer in the latest set of forecasts from the Bank of England, which predict inflation will peak at 4 per cent in September.

“That’s a favourably timed spike for the calculation of next year’s state pension, which takes the September CPI reading as one of the inputs of the triple lock.

“It’s possible that wage growth may trump inflation, and pensioners get an even bigger bump in their income. But if the Bank of England is right about inflation, then pensioners can look forward to a rise of at least 4 per cent in their state pension next year.”

What could the state pension rise to?

Below shows what the new and basic state pensions could rise to under various scenarios – though the figures only apply to those who get the full amounts.

These are £176.45 per week for the basic state and £230.25 per week for the new state pension.

Women born before 6 April 1953 and men born before 6 April 1951 get the basic state pension, while those born after get the new state pension.

Inflation – If inflation were to sit at 4 per cent in September, and this was the highest of the three factors, the basic state pension would rise to £183.50 and the full state pension to £239.45 per week.

Average earnings – If average earnings were to sit at 4.6 per cent this summer, and this was the highest of the three factors, the basic state pension would rise to £184.55 and the full state pension to £240.85.

2.5 per cent – This part of the lock will almost certainly not apply this year, given inflation and average earnings are far above 2.5 per cent, but theoretically, if it were used, the basic state pension would rise to £180.85 and the full state pension to £236.00