Donald Trump press briefing
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
A BBC report found signs of illegal “insider trading” based on President Donald Trump’s news-making pronouncements, but a financial expert said there’s a low possibility that anyone “will be prosecuted.”
The BBC looked at claims that traders have been betting millions of dollars just before Trump makes major announcements to reporters or via Truth Social.
According to the report, “The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president’s most significant market-moving statements.”
“It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public,” the report said.
The BBC report gave “five of the most significant examples” of lucrative trades made after Trump comments like, “The war is very complete, pretty much,” and “Complete and total resolution to hostilities.”
The report added that “some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market,” relating to Trump’s comments on the Iran war.
Oil traders reacted to news that the conflict could end quickly “by selling oil, with the price plunging by around 25%,” the report said.
“However, market data shows a huge surge of bets were placed on the price of oil falling” a full 47 minutes before a reporter posted the president’s comments to X.
“The traders who placed those bets will have made millions of dollars from the movement in oil prices,” the report said.
Trading based on insider information has been illegal since the Securities Act was passed in 1933, and was extended to cover government officials in 2012.
Lifestyle guru Martha Stewart famously served five months in federal prison in 2004 in connection with a trade based on an illegal insider tip.
“Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public,” the report said. “Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president’s interventions. ”
Regardless, a professor with the French Graduate School of Economic and Commercial Sciences, told the BBC, “You can have massive trades on a financial instrument that clearly show that someone was privy to what Donald Trump was about to declare, yet there is a strong chance that no-one will be prosecuted.”
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