After an initial assessment that Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu could open to $71M over three days, a more optimistic box office report from Box Office Pro has stated that a 3-day opening could open between $90M and $100M. This notably does not seem to include the Memorial Day holiday, which will be the fourth day of the holiday weekend that the movie will be released under. The box office tracking website notes that the $90M-$100M range that they’ve formed is a bit on the conservative side, though they believe that the box office could skew a bit higher with a strong marketing push. That figure is higher than the three-day total of fellow Memorial Day Star Wars release Solo (which generated $84.4M in revenues over its first three days) but far beneath any of the Christmas-adjacent releases in the Disney era.

 

To put things into perspective, a lower opening does not necessarily indicate a box office bomb — The Mandalorian and Grogu could make less money at the box office than the far more expensive Solo: A Star Wars Story and still turn a profit. For a reported $166M budget, either a $71M or $90M-$100M opening would be considered good if the international gross matches it and it has legs at the box office. The Mandalorian and Grogu has an advantage of being one of the only family-friendly blockbusters of this portion of the summer, which might be great for its long-term prospects. Applying basic box office math to the franchise would suggest that the point where a movie like The Mandalorian and Grogu could turn a profit would be in the range of $332M-$415M, which even a pessimistic perspective of the film’s box office potential would think is achievable. Disney’s internal expectations seems to expect The Mandalorian and Grogu to perform more like how a spin-off movie to a television series usually does than a cinematic return to form — with Star Wars: Starfighter generating more of that kind of excitement inside the House of Mouse.

 

The Mandalorian and Grogu will be released in theaters on May 22, 2026. The film is directed by Jon Favreau, who also co-wrote the script with Dave Filoni. The film stars Pedro Pascal as Din Djarin, Sigourney Weaver as Colonel Ward, and Jeremy Allen White as Rotta the Hutt, and Grogu as himself, among others. Three-time Academy Award winner Ludwig Göransson composed the film’s score. Former Lucasfilm CEO Kathleen Kennedy and Ian Bryce will also produce alongside Filoni and Favreau. The movie reportedly clocks in at 2 hours and 12 minutes.

 


Grant has been a fan of Star Wars for as long as he can remember, having seen every movie on the big screen. When he’s not hard at work with his college studies, he keeps himself busy by reporting on all kinds of Star Wars news for SWNN and general movie news on the sister site, Movie News Net. He served as a frequent commentator on SWNN’s The Resistance Broadcast.