He has also previously said that “you do need to acknowledge the tens of billions of dollars of investment that occurs in order to have that gas extracted and without that investment that’s come from North America, that’s come from Japan… we wouldn’t be having a debate.”
But Australia would not be breaking any contracts by imposing a gas export tax, says John Quiggin, a professor of economics at the University of Queensland.
“There’s no way a gas exporter can sign a contract that promises that tax policy won’t change,” he says.
Quiggin further adds that all of Albanese’s “running around” won’t “make that much difference in the end because these things are determined by markets”.
He is also sceptical of the claim that investors would be scared away: “Where are they going to go?”
Quiggin notes that other countries aren’t playing by the rules like they used to – pointing to US President Donald Trump, who last year unilaterally imposed tariffs on countries around the world.
“That kind of argument really belongs to the past,” he says, noting the idea that foreign investors “have to be treated with kid gloves or they run away… no longer has much force”.
Hepburn further notes that such an argument – that foreign companies won’t invest in new gas projects – ignores Australia’s climate targets, which include reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. “The perspective there is that we can’t really be opening up new gas projects,” she says.
While the gas tax is unlikely to be introduced in the budget, the consensus among political observers is that it will eventually become inevitable given its popularity with voters across the political spectrum – from the Greens on the left to One Nation on the right.
Pocock and his supporters, meanwhile, have vowed to continue with their campaign. On Tuesday, he tweeted: “The pressure on government to act is growing and, at some point, the prime minister has to put Australia first.”