The Triple Lock, which has long been seen as untouchable, could be at risk amid growing pressure.

06:50, 04 May 2026Updated 06:56, 04 May 2026

The Triple Lock, which has long been seen as untouchable, could be at risk amid growing pressure.

The Triple Lock, which has long been seen as untouchable, could be at risk amid growing pressure.

The Department for Work and Pensions could axe the most “terrible” rule for state pensioners – if it bows to growing pressure. The Triple Lock, which has long been seen as untouchable, could be at risk amid growing pressure.

There is intense pressure for the Labour Party government to act and scrap the metric. This year, the headline state pension rates will be hiked by 4.8 per cent under the ‘triple lock’.

This is the popular government guarantee, which means the state pension is increased every year by whichever is the highest of inflation , average earnings growth or 2.5 per cent.

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This year earnings growth won out in the crunch month of last year that determined the annual increase. But former Conservative Party Chancellor Sir Jeremy Hunt and Labour Party grandee Baroness Harman have both suggested the policy may no longer be sustainable.

Labour MP Graeme Downie said there is “an appetite in all parties” to revisit the policy, adding that if welfare is used to fund defence “there are no sacred cows”.

Sir Charles Bean, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, said: “It’s a terrible policy… that is unsustainable.”

Former NATO chief Lord Robertson warned: “We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”

A recent poll by Lord Ashcroft suggested that six in 10 voters support the policy. Sir Charles said voters “always like having money spent on them if there’s no price tag attached”.

But Reform UK Treasury spokesman, Robert Jenrick, has committed the party to retaining the ‘triple lock’ on pensions.

Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, the state pension rose by inflation on six occasions (once based on RPI and subsequently based on CPI), by 2.5 per cent on four occasions and by average earnings on three.

By 2023/24, the state pension was already 10.9 per cent higher than it would have been had it risen with CPI and 10.6 per cent higher than it would have been had it risen with average earnings.

The result is that the triple lock is adding around £15 billion a year to public expenditure over and above the level it would be had it never existed.