The world could be overwhelmed by cancer cases by 2050, experts have warned.
The combination of a stagnating number of cancer care workers globally and an ageing population could mean hospitals would struggle to cope with the impending cancer crisis, experts have said.
Patients could also face much longer waits to be diagnosed and treated as a result, according to a report launched at the world’s largest cancer conference.
The research, published in The Lancet Oncology and presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s annual meeting, said governments around the world needed to increase the number of specialist cancer doctors and nurses.
“The world faces a projected global shortfall of 100 million cancer care workers by 2050,” the commission wrote.
“The largest gaps will be seen in nursing (about 65 million) and diagnostic staff (about 16 million), threatening to overwhelm health systems as the global cancer burden continues to rise.”
The projected workforce crisis comes amid a predicted 21 per cent increase in cancer cases. Experts said the rate is set to increase from 165 per 100,000 people to 200 per 100,000 people by 2050.
The research added: “Cancer is considered a silent pandemic, with 35.3 million cases and 18.5 million deaths projected to occur annually worldwide by 2050.” That is the equivalent of almost 100,000 people being diagnosed every day.
‘This is a wake-up call’
Speaking in Chicago at the launch of the report, Prof Mark Lawler, a professor of digital health at Queen’s University Belfast and a co-author of the research, said: “These findings are sobering. Make no mistake; this is a wake-up call, no matter where you are in the world.
“What we’ve uncovered is shocking – how can we reconcile a 15 million increase in cancer cases diagnosed with a 100 million decrease in cancer staffing? The data, unfortunately, do not lie.
“We can’t wait until 2050 to see if our projections are correct – we must act now.”
Matt Sample, the senior health policy manager at Cancer Research UK, said health services were “already struggling to keep up with demand” and that more investment is needed for additional medical staff.
More specialist staff needed
He said: “If the UK is serious about achieving world-leading cancer outcomes, a step change in how we plan and invest in our cancer services is needed. That means growing and supporting the workforce, expanding diagnostic capacity, and building a system that can meet future demands.
“The UK Government’s upcoming 10 Year Workforce Plan needs to provide investment for additional specialist staff, otherwise people affected by cancer will continue to be let down.”
In a comment piece, published in Lancet Oncology by the same commission, researchers said a widening shortage of radiologists in the UK could exacerbate the problem at home.
“The Royal College of Radiologists’ 2024 workforce census identifies a 15 per cent shortfall in consultant clinical oncologists across the UK, projected to reach 19 per cent by 2028,” the authors wrote.
“In some centres, the wait between a decision to treat and the start of radiotherapy can stretch to 3 months, a concerning figure given evidence that even a 1-month delay in commencing cancer treatment is associated with a roughly 10 per cent increase in mortality risk in some cancers.”
Dr Peter Kingham, the co-author of the report and director of Memorial Sloan Kettering’s global cancer research and training programme, said a focus on cancer prevention was also important, such as promoting healthier diets and countering sedentary lifestyles.
“Cancer is fundamentally a disease of ageing,” he added. “As global life expectancy rises and conditions such as HIV are managed as chronic rather than terminal illnesses, more people worldwide are living long enough to face a cancer risk.
“This demographic shift is not a failure – it reflects remarkable progress in global health, but it demands an equally ambitious response in cancer care.”