Ukraine and Russia have refocussed minds
For the most part, however, the story of the last decade has been of the UK looking for a new way in which to work with its European neighbours while being outside the EU. Russian aggression – most obviously in Ukraine, but also through its cyber-attacks, targeted sabotage, airspace incursions and of course its use of novichok in Salisbury in 2018 – combined with increasing doubts about the commitment of the US to European security, have reminded leaders on both sides of the Channel that there are more important matters at stake than the rules on sandwich fillings in Northern Ireland.
The Ukraine crisis has seen a closer, less fractious relationship between the EU and NATO, alongside the EU (thanks in part to the absence of a UK veto) taking on greater responsibilities for defence and security policy, including the financing of support for Ukraine through EU spending and initiatives aimed at strengthening the Union’s defence industrial base.
The Ukraine crisis has seen a closer, less fractious relationship between the EU and NATO.
But it takes time for political bruises to heal, and the failure in 2025 of negotiations for UK participation in the EU’s SAFE initiative on defence procurement showed that some in Brussels and Paris, not just Westminster, have hang-ups about Brexit. Nevertheless, the evolution of a de facto E3-plus or ‘Weimar-plus’ grouping including Britain, France, Germany, Poland, Italy and the EU points towards a future involving much closer collaboration among European powers.