Britons could continue to suffer the “pain” of higher food prices due to the Iran war for another 18 months despite Donald Trump’s peace deal, The i Paper has been told.
Shopping bills could carry on rising until the end of 2027 because of all the extra costs faced by farmers and food manufacturers, economists have said.
Petrol and diesel prices may not come down substantially at the forecourt until 2027, the experts also warned British motorists. UK holidaymakers’ flight prices could be affected for many more months too.
Shorts
Scroll to previous short
Scroll to next short
NEWS
How soon Burnham could become PM – who will challenge him
Caption: Newly elected Makerfield MP Andy Burnham of Britain’s Labour Party reacts following his victory in the Makerfield by-election, triggered by the resignation of Labour MP John Simons, at the The Edge Wigan, in Wigan, Britain, June 19, 2026. REUTERS/Temilade Adelaja TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Photographer: Temilade Adelaja
Provider: REUTERS
Source: REUTERS
The nation could have a new prime minister within weeks after Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, setting up a possible leadership contest.
The i Paper examines how soon it could
take the Greater Manchester Mayor to
step into No 10.
Burnham’s next moves
Burnham is unlikely to make any immediate moves against Sir Keir Starmer before being sworn into Parliament on Monday.
Only then can he take part in full Parliamentary proceedings.
The preferred option for Team Burnham would be a swift coronation, with hopes that Starmer steps down and rival contender Wes Streeting drops his challenge.
OPINION
5 min read
OPINION
5 min read
Knocking on No 10
This weekend will be telling, with the Makerfield result expected to trigger calls for Starmer to set out a resignation timetable and for Streeting to stand aside so Burnham has a clear path to No 10. Burnham has made it clear that he is only after the biggest role there is – PM.
Sir Keir Starmer has promised to fight in any future leadership contest (Photo: Isabel Infantes/PA)
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is widely regarded as a frontrunner to replace Sir Keir Starmer (Photo: Temilade Adelaja/Reuters)
Streeting looks set to block a Burnham coronation, telling journalists he could trigger a leadership contest as early as
next week.
The most likely scenario for what happens next
Burnham could take Starmer’s job depending on the mood within the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP).
This weekend could also see a stalking horse candidate announced to set the ball rolling and test the strength of a leadership bid for others.
In May, Labour MP Catherine West appeared to use this tactic before U-turning.
Exclusive
2 min read
Leadership challenge rules
Under Labour Party rules, any MP who wants to challenge a sitting party leader must first be nominated by at least 20 per cent, or a fifth, of the PLP, which is currently 81 MPs.
They must also be backed by at least five
per cent of all local branches, or at least three party-affiliated groups, two of which must be unions.
Andy Burnham with supporters as Makerfield headed to the polls on Thursday (Photo: AFP)
Exclusive
3 min read
‘Battle of ideas’
If Starmer refuses to step down, Streeting has suggested that a formal challenge would be launched next week. At this stage, other leadership hopefuls could announce their bid to run.
As the current Labour leader, Starmer is automatically in any race and does not need to find 81 backers.
By the end of next week, it should be clear whether Burnham will glide unopposed
into the leadership within the coming
days, or face a fierce “battle of ideas” for
the keys to No 10.
Caption: LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM – JUNE 12: Larry the cat, the Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office, is seen outside 10 Downing Street in central London, United Kingdom on June 12, 2026. (Photo by Thomas Krych/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Photographer: Anadolu
Provider: Anadolu via Getty Images
Source: Anadolu
HEALTH
The dangerous cholesterol form we can finally treat
Caption: Illustration of a blood vessel with atherosclerosis and a blood clot (thrombus). Atherosclerosis is narrowing (stenosis) of an artery due to fatty deposits (yellow) on its inner walls. The deposits are made of atheroma, a substance comprising cholesterol, decaying cells, blood cells and fatty proteins. The damage to the walls can also cause the formation of a thrombus, which can disrupt blood flow. A thrombus can be fatal if it blocks blood flow to a vital organ, such as the brain
Photographer: THOM LEACH / SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRA
Provider: Getty Images/Science Photo Libra
Source: Science Photo Library RF
Copyright: Science Photo Library
Most of us know that having high cholesterol is bad for the heart. Some may be aware there are two different forms: good cholesterol and bad cholesterol.
But few know there is another version of
bad cholesterol.
Second wave of potent medicines
High levels of this substance – called lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a) – affect up to a quarter of people and probably cause thousands of heart attacks and strokes a year. Until recently there was nothing that people could do to change it.
Scientists call for greater regulation after finding cholesterol and other at-home tests may not be fit for purpose (Photo: Jaap Arriens/Getty)
Plaques aren’t only caused by high ‘bad cholesterol’ (Photo: Rasi Bhadramani / Getty Images / iStockphoto)
The first medicines that reduce Lp(a) have already arrived. And round the corner are a second wave of more potent drugs, which could act as a different tool to prevent heart attacks.
What is cholesterol?
Cholesterol is a fatty substance in the blood that can lead to plaque building up on artery walls over time, which can restrict blood flow as well as form blood clots that trigger heart attacks and strokes.
In a small subset of these bad cholesterol particles, the protein covering has a sticky “tail”, which makes it even more dangerous. These are Lp(a).
Caption: Hyperlipidemia or arteriosclerosis. Blocked artery concept and human blood vessel as a disease with cholesterol fat buildup clogging. Clogged arteries, Cholesterol plaque in the artery. 3D Rendering
Photographer: Chinnachart Martmoh
Provider: Getty Images
Source: iStockphoto
Analysis
4 min read
Unaffected by diet
The sticky tail on Lp(a) makes
the cholesterol particles more likely to form plaque, trigger blood clots, and makes plaques more likely to rupture.
For a long time there was nothing that people with a high Lp(a) level could do to lower it – unlike ordinary bad cholesterol, Lp(a) levels are unaffected by diet, exercise or statins.
A high Lp(a) level doesn’t show
on a normal panel of tests because it makes up only a tiny fraction of the total bad cholesterol.
Family history
I check it in people who have had recurrent heart attacks at a young age, who don’t have a clear explanation. Often their cholesterol levels are normal, and they have an otherwise healthy life, but have a very strong family history. A high proportion have high Lp(a).
Professor Marc Dweck, cardiologist at the University of Edinburgh
Taking supplements to prevent bone breaks does not help, according to new research. This particularly affects older people who are likely to fall and have brittle bones (Photo: Paul J Richards/Getty)
A new group of drugs
A new group of drugs that lower ordinary bad cholesterol and somewhat reduce Lp(a) have recently become available.
PCSK9 inhibitors have not yet made a big impact because they cut Lp(a) by only 20 per cent. But the next group of more potent medicines are around the corner, with at least five drugs undergoing trials.
One called pelacarsen cuts Lp(a) by 80 per cent, and could be available in the UK within a year or two. Another drug still at an earlier stage of trials, called CTX320, is a form of gene therapy and so its effects should be long-lasting.
Analysis
3 min read
news
What to know after boy injured in zoo crocodile enclosure
Caption: ISTANBUL, TURKIYE – MAY 26: Newly hatched Nile crocodile cubs are seen at the ViaSea Aquarium inside Aslan Park in the Tuzla district of Istanbul, Turkiye, on May 26, 2026. Six Nile crocodile cubs, bred under protection at the aquarium??”which hosts various underwater species such as fish and turtles??”were introduced to visitors following their specialized care and monitoring process. (Photo by Muhammed Ali Yigit/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Photographer: Anadolu
Provider: Anadolu via Getty Images
Source: Anadolu
A toddler has been left in a critical
condition after ending up in a zoo’s
crocodile enclosure. Officers were called to Johnsons Zoo near Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire on Thursday.
A man, 30, was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder but has since been released on bail after being declared not fit for interview. The pair are not believed to have known each other.
‘Critical but stable’ condition
Tracey Johnson, the zoo owner’s wife, reportedly leapt into the crocodile pit to rescue the boy. He suffered serious wounds and was taken to Addenbrooke’s Hospital in a “critical but stable” condition, police said.
The child is believed to have suffered a broken arm and pelvis.
Caption: Police at Johnson’s of Old Hurst, in Huntingdonshire, where a man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy ended up in a crocodile enclosure at the zoo. Picture date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. Cambridgeshire Police said officers were called to Johnson’s of Old Hurst, in Huntingdonshire, at 1.24pm on Thursday to “reports of an incident involving a three-year-old boy, during which he ended up in the crocodile enclosure”. “The boy has been taken to Addenbrooke’s Hospital with serious injuries and is critical but stable,” a force spokesperson said. “A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder.” Photo credit should read: Joe Giddens/PA Wire
Photographer: Joe Giddens
Provider: Joe Giddens/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
NEWS
4 min read
A closer look at the detail
The suspect was reportedly on a day trip at the time of the incident.
The adult has learning difficulties and was accompanied by a carer at the time, according to The Sun.
A Magpas Air Ambulance spokesperson said a critical
care team attended the incident
at 1.42pm and “treated one patient
at the scene before taking them
to hospital”.
Explained
4 min read
Zoo enclosure closed ‘out of respect’
The crocodile enclosure has been closed “out of respect” to the family “until further notice”, according to the zoo.
Caption: ISTANBUL, TURKIYE – MAY 26: Newly hatched Nile crocodile cubs are seen at the ViaSea Aquarium inside Aslan Park in the Tuzla district of Istanbul, Turkiye, on May 26, 2026. Six Nile crocodile cubs, bred under protection at the aquarium??”which hosts various underwater species such as fish and turtles??”were introduced to visitors following their specialized care and monitoring process. (Photo by Muhammed Ali Yigit/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Photographer: Anadolu
Provider: Anadolu via Getty Images
Source: Anadolu
Caption: Police at Johnson’s of Old Hurst, in Huntingdonshire, where a man has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy ended up in a crocodile enclosure at the zoo. Picture date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. Cambridgeshire Police said officers were called to Johnson’s of Old Hurst, in Huntingdonshire, at 1.24pm on Thursday to “reports of an incident involving a three-year-old boy, during which he ended up in the crocodile enclosure”. “The boy has been taken to Addenbrooke’s Hospital with serious injuries and is critical but stable,” a force spokesperson said. “A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder.” Photo credit should read: Joe Giddens/PA Wire
Photographer: Joe Giddens
Provider: Joe Giddens/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
Ben Obese-Jecty, MP for Huntingdon in Cambridgeshire, said: “I am aware of the incident at Johnson’s of Old Hurst, and have been liaising with senior officers, who are treating this as a critical incident. My thoughts are with the young victim and his family.”
news
Lidl toasts ‘milestone’ moment with launch of first Middle Ale bar
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 1500 THURSDAY JUNE 18
Undated handout photo issued by Lidl of Lidl Northern Ireland’s pub, The Middle Ale, in Dundonald, Belfast. The 60-seater pub is next door to Lidl Dundonald store and will operate independently, with a separate entrance, as a public house with off-sales. Issue date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. The pub’s wine list has been chosen by Lidl’s Master of Wine Richard Bampfield, and the spirits and liqueurs includes Lidl’s own-brand Dundalgan whiskey and Wild Burrow Gin, as well as range of pre-mixed cocktails and soft drinks, including their own-brand Freeway cola. Photo credit should read: Lidl/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lidl
Provider: Lidl/PA Wire
Source: PA
Supermarket chain Lidl has opened the doors to its first pub. The Middle Ale bar and off-licence is adjacent to the existing Lidl store in Dundonald, near Belfast.
Here is everything you need to know about the new venture.
Why has Lidl opened a pub?
The venture represents Lidl’s novel way of ensuring compliance with Northern Ireland’s strict and complex licensing laws.
The distribution of liquor licences are tightly controlled in the region and can only be obtained by purchasing them from businesses that are closing or no longer intend to sell alcohol.
Lidl, which operates some 11,000 stores across Europe and North America, is diverting vessels from its in-house shipping company around Africa to avoid the threat off attacks in the Red Sea. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)
LIFESTYLE
5 min read
A closer look at the details
Applicants must also prove there is an “inadequacy” of provision in the area.
Having been unable to prove there was an inadequate number of off-licences in the Dundonald area, Lidl pivoted its strategy and applied for a pub licence instead, arguing there were not enough bars in the area.
After a protracted process, the chain succeeded in securing a licence to sell alcohol in a pub, with an attached off-sales section.
NEWS
2 min read
Middle aisle to Middle Ale
Today marks an important milestone as we open our first-ever public house and begin welcoming customers
to The Middle Ale. We’re thrilled to finally bring the Dundonald community access to our full range of high quality, premium beers, wines and spirits for the first time in more than two decades.
Gordon Cruikshanks, regional managing director for Lidl Northern Ireland
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 1500 THURSDAY JUNE 18
Undated handout photo issued by Lidl of
bar manager Samantha Hill and regional manager Gordon Cruikshanks, Regional Managing Director for Lidl Northern Ireland outside Lidl Northern Ireland’s pub, The Middle Ale, in Dundonald, Belfast. The 60-seater pub is next door to Lidl Dundonald store and will operate independently, with a separate entrance, as a public house with off-sales. Issue date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. The pub’s wine list has been chosen by Lidl’s Master of Wine Richard Bampfield, and the spirits and liqueurs includes Lidl’s own-brand Dundalgan whiskey and Wild Burrow Gin, as well as range of pre-mixed cocktails and soft drinks, including their own-brand Freeway cola. Photo credit should read: Lidl/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lidl
Provider: Lidl/PA Wire
Source: PA
Caption: The Archbishop of Canterbury Dame Sarah Mullally delivers a speech in the Leo Baeck College during a visit to the to Sternberg Centre to meet with the Jewish community in Finchley in a demonstration of solidarity following the recent antisemitic attacks in London. Picture date: Thursday May 14, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire
Photographer: Jonathan Brady
Provider: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire
Source: PA
news
Everything you need to know about forced adoption scandal
The Church of England has apologised to those affected by historical forced adoptions organised by the church after the Government confirmed it would be apologising yesterday.
What you need to know
The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dame Sarah Mullally, said she was sorry for the “pain, trauma and stigma” experienced by mothers and children in homes affiliated with the Church.
She said she had heard first-hand stories from survivors and that they should not be ashamed, because “the shame is ours”.
Young Mother playing with children while sitting on floor at home with wooden toys – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Big Read
7 min read
What happened?
An estimated 185,000 babies of unmarried mothers were adopted in England and Wales between 1949 and 1976.
The Church of England believes up to tens of thousands of these adoptions took place in Church-affiliated homes, where mothers were forced into manual labour as punishment.
‘I could tell Josh wanted to run away. Things finally came to a head when we went to register the birth’ (Photo: Natalia Lebedinskaia/Getty)
The apology does not mention compensation, but a wider redress scheme might mean survivors could be eligible for up to £660,000.
Watch more from The i Paper
England’s World Cup campaign has just begun, but should fans be allowed to decorate streets with St George’s flags? Councils across the West Country are warning people not to attach flags to lampposts, railings and other public property, saying it can create safety issues and may even be a criminal offence. We visited what’s been called England’s most patriotic street to hear what local people think. Read more on this story at the link above ⬆️ #WorldCup #FifaWorldCup #England #Englandflag
♬ original sound – The i Paper – The i Paper
Number of job vacancies hits
five-year low
The increase in unemployment, which has exceeded expectations, was driven by people out of work for up to 12 months, the ONS said (Photo: Philip Toscano/PA Wire)
There are fewer jobs available than there have been for five years, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), as firms blame wage growth and economic uncertainty for their reluctance to hire staff.
How bad is the job market?
Vacancies stood at…
707,000
in May this year, the lowest number since April 2021.
In the three months to May, vacancies fell by…
19,000
This is also the sharpest drop in five years.
The drop was most significant across retail, hospitality and professional services, as well as small employers across industries.
How did this happen?
With wage growth hovering at 3.4 per
cent, employers are reluctant to hire new staff, hire new staff, who will become an ongoing cost.
Rafe said that when a promising contact appeared through a large WhatsApp group for international students, he at first had felt a glimmer of hope (Photo: Getty)
Jeremy Hunt has been urged to help manufacturers expand (Photo: David Davies/PA)
The number of workers on payrolls fell by 53,000 during the same period, further suggesting companies are not looking to expand the workforce. The ONS said the key drivers are economic uncertainty and higher labour costs.
If Government is serious about tackling youth unemployment, it must
bring down the cost of employing young people
and ensure employment reforms support entry-level recruitment and progression.
helen dickinson, chief executive of the british retail consortium
Caption: Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium.
Photo: Jonathan Brady/ Reuters.
Oil prices eased below $80 a barrel after the US and Iran signed a “memorandum of understanding” to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
Despite the huge sense of relief, uncertainty remains because Washington and Tehran still have to negotiate a final deal in a “maximum” of 60 days.
‘Lot of pain’ ahead for food bills
UK farmers and growers have had to deal with a huge rise in fertiliser, red diesel and other energy costs since the conflict, launched in February, rocked global shipping.
It means it could continue to cost more to produce in the year ahead, with supermarket prices expected to get sharper from the autumn, experts told The i Paper.
“There is still a lot of pain to come in terms of the second-order impacts on food prices and the supply chain,” said Ashley Kelty, energy analyst at investment bank Panmure Liberum.
“I think the impact on food prices could continue for 18 months, until the end of next year,” he added.
Marco Forgione, head of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade, said higher insurance and shipping costs are likely to remain in place for the food supply chain for the foreseeable future.
The impact on fertiliser, red diesel and chemical prices for farmers preparing for next year’s planting and harvest may not become clear for several months, he added.
“Food prices lag because of planting and harvest cycles, so we are likely to see elevated food prices well into 2027,” said Forgione.
“It’s hard to say at this stage, but it could possibly go on into late 2027,” he added. “I do think food prices could well be higher next year than they are this year.”
Why annual shopping bills could go up £470
Phil Pluck, the Cold Chain Federation’s chief executive, thinks the Food and Drink Federation’s prediction of food inflation hitting at least 9 per cent by the end of 2026 is still relevant.
“There are so many extra costs that only begin to hit home in terms of rising food prices to the consumer from the autumn,” said Pluck. “Those will continue to be felt through the winter, into 2027.”
“I would hope we start to see some stabilisation in food prices next year. But it’s too early to say – any uncertainty in energy supply could mean further price rises. Food prices coming down next year is too much to hope for I’m afraid.”
Meats, chicken, baked goods, fruit and veg could all get more expensive in the months ahead, food bodies previously told The i Paper. Pub owners also warned that £9 pints could become normal in London and £7 elsewhere in the country.
A 9 per cent increase would add £470 to average annual shopping bills, according to NimbleFins insurance firm’s analysis of Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.
‘Elevated’ petrol prices until next year
Both petrol and diesel prices may start to come down for UK motorists at the forecourt within weeks – but they may not return to pre-conflict levels until the end of 2026.
The RAC said it expects the price of petrol to fall from its current average of 156p per litre to 148p within the next fortnight, and diesel to similarly fall from 177p to below 160p.
Petrol and diesel prices have soared due to the Iran war over the past four months and are expected to return to pre-war levels slowly (Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty)
However, Kelty, the energy analyst, warned of volatility in both oil supply and prices continuing for at least three to six months – even if Trump’s deal holds.
There will be problems getting the Middle East’s oil production capacity back to normal for several months. There will also be fierce competition among countries to rebuild their oil stockpiles, he said.
“Petrol and diesel prices should start to come down within a few months – but perhaps not by as much as people expect,” said Kelty. “The volatility could continue into next year.”
Adam Bell, a partner at energy consultancy Stonehaven, said the global “rush to rebuild” oil stockpiles will keep prices higher than before the conflict for the rest of this year.
“This means we should assume petrol and diesel prices remain elevated into Christmas,” said the former UK government adviser.
“This will impact food costs – meaning that people will still be feeling the effect of Trump’s war as they buy their turkeys for Christmas.”
The recent rise in air travel costs may not begin to stabilise until 2027, experts also warned. “There will continue to be pressure on jet fuel in the US and Asia, so there could be an impact on flights and air fares that could continue for several months,” said Kelty.
Higher energy bills until summer 2027
Ellen Fraser, an energy expert at the consultancy Baringa, said volatile gas prices, though not strictly related to the Iran conflict, made it hard to see Britons’ energy bills coming down before summer 2027.
“You would hope household energy bills can remain at least steady. But gas prices are likely to be elevated and volatile until next summer, so they’re unlikely to come down materially until then.”
Under the current April to June energy price cap, the average annual bill for typical gas and electricity bill is £1,641. It will jump up 13 per cent to £1,862 from July.
Energy experts at Cornwall Insight forecasts that it will increase by a further 2 per cent to £1,899 for the October to December period – but next year remains uncertain.
Dr Craig Lowrey of Cornwall Insight said the final details of any concentre Iran peace deal “will matter enormously” in trying to price energy costs in the months ahead.
“We would certainly expect gas prices to remain high until after the winter, as the gas storage picture indicates we will be going into winter with historically low levels.”
The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75 per cent, below the 4 per cent high predicted by economists at the outset of the Iran war.
But economists still expect inflation to rise in the months ahead. The recent surprise dip in UK inflation for April was only a “fleeting reprieve”, said Katie Horne, banks relationship manager at financial firm Flagstone.
The Government has been approached for comment.