AnalysisBy-election expected to take place next monthpublished at 15:36 BST

15:36 BST

Chris Mason
Political editor, reporting from the Nato summit

Hello from the Turkish capital Ankara. I am part of the reporter pack covering the prime minister’s trip to the Nato summit getting under way here.

Nigel Farage — as so often in the last couple of years — has managed to upstage Sir Keir Starmer again, albeit via what his critics see as a self-serving stunt.

Speaking to his allies this afternoon, his aim here is to clearly frame this as “the people versus the establishment”, as one friend put it.

“This is Nigel setting the agenda, he is sick to death of being judged by Sky, The Times and Daniel Greenberg,” they added, the latter a reference to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.

They intend, I am told, to move the writ for the by-election as soon as they can — while parliament is sitting and before its summer break, beginning in a few weeks.

That would likely mean a by-election at some point next month, just as a new government led by Andy Burnham is beginning its time in power, in all likelihood.

The question now is how Reform’s opponents react. Do they put up candidates or not? Reform is baiting Labour to do so, claiming it would be Burnham’s first big test.

But there is precedent in these situations for opponents not to bother — and to argue they are not going to endorse what they see as a publicity stunt by taking part.

It is worth remembering that this by election doesn’t end the investigation that the Standards Commissioner is conducting, which could itself eventually lead to what is known as a recall petition and, yes, a by-election.

But Reform are effectively trying to say we are getting ahead of you — and who would want repeated by elections? A subsequent by-election would only happen in that scenario if enough folk in Clacton wanted one.