After a worst-case scenario start to the 2025 season, Liam Lawson is fighting to establish himself at VCARB. The Kiwi has spent the last few months trying to recover from the shock of being replaced at Red Bull after the Chinese GP.

Only a few months ago, Lawson’s chances of staying in Formula 1 beyond the end of this year were slim.

For obvious reasons, his position at Red Bull was damaged – in the eyes of some, irreparably – when he was replaced after round two.

Thankfully for Lawson, various things have changed in the last few weeks – which could boost his F1 chances.

Liam Lawson leads Max Verstappen during the F1 Grand Prix of Hungary. (Photo by Joe Portlock/Getty Images) // Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool
Lawson secures solid results, Laurent Mekies changes the equation

It is safe to say that Red Bull’s move to promote Liam Lawson for the 2025 F1 Season was always somewhat speculative.

This is not because Lawson did not produce some impressive drives for VCARB. Despite returning to the Faenza team mid-season, the Kiwi was within a respectable distance of Yuki Tsunoda.

If anything, he was objectively closer to Tsunoda than the Japanese driver’s two previous teammates – De Vries and Ricciardo.

Still, Christian Horner’s decision to promote Lawson seemed out of step with the reality at Red Bull.

For a team with a self-admittedly difficult car to manage, putting someone with less than a full season of experience alongside Verstappen seemed premature.

It was only a few weeks before Red Bull conceded their mistake, with Lawson in the unprecedented scenario of losing his seat after two Grand Prix.

In the weeks after his demotion, the 23-year-old was a few steps behind Isack Hadjar.

Considering the nature of his Red Bull departure, Lawson’s market value was only worsened when Hadjar consistently outperformed him – despite the obvious challenges of adaptation Lawson faced.

After the seventh round of the season in Imola, yet to score points in 2025, Lawson’s future looked bleak.

With Lindblad fighting at the front in Formula 2, the Kiwi seemed the most likely casualty if Red Bull moved to promote the 17-year-0ld into Formula 1.

Since Imola, however, the state of play has changed significantly.

Lawson is now performing at a much stronger level, having adapted to his VCARB.

His most recent P8 in Hungary, where he kept Verstappen at bay throughout his final stint, underlines his resurgence.

Lawson has four points finishes from the last seven races, whilst teammate Hadjar only has one.

In combination with Laurent Mekies becoming Red Bull team principal, the last few months have been a much-needed reset for the 23-year-old.

As reported by ESPN, Red Bull’s new internal dynamics could put the #30 driver in a stronger position.

Liam Lawson in Budapest, Hungary. (Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images) // Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool
Lindblad could spend another year in Formula 2

Of course, Hadjar is a few years younger than Lawson and also less experienced – albeit not by much.

Because of this, despite recent form, Hadjar’s market value is slightly higher. This is likely to continue in the short term, provided the VCARB drivers perform at a similar level.

Thankfully for Lawson, his Red Bull demotion (meaning Hadjar would be next in line for a promotion) has not altogether ruined his F1 future.

For much of the year, Red Bull junior Arvid Lindblad has been described as an F1-calibre talent. Indeed, this is still how the Milton Keynes outfit perceive him.

Despite this, Lindblad’s Formula 2 campaign has somewhat stalled.

Currently 7th in the standings (and behind fellow rookies Fornaroli and Dunne), the British driver is not necessarily on a fast-track to join F1 in 2026.

To be clear, Lindblad remains a very valuable asset within Red Bull.

Provided his upward trajectory continues, it seems only a matter of time until he joins the F1 grid.

With that said, his chances of being in F1 next year have diminished – with Lawson showing enough to justify another season.

Under the leadership of Laurent Mekies, Red Bull are more likely to show a more lenient approach with its drivers.

Their heavy-handed and ruthless approach, after all, has done little to solve their underlying problems.

Because of this, Lawson could yet earn another year in Formula 1 – provided he finishes the season strongly.

As the 2026 regulations inch closer, Red Bull would be happy to have some continuity among their driver ranks.

Main photo: Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images (via Red Bull content pool)