The stupidest game in politics is predicting a new cabinet, because it is literally one person’s call – Burnham’s tomorrow – and weirdly he hasn’t shared his almost-decisions with me.

Also, even if – when he is PM tomorrow – Burnham thinks he knows precisely who he wants in which job, he’ll be aware that the picks of his predecessors had an annoying habit of saying “no thank you”. Best laid plans, and all that.

In this instance, several Labour MPs who 100% will be in the cabinet have told me – and I believe them – that even now, just hours before the cabinet will be announced, they have no clue what Burnham will offer them.

And to be clear, I am not talking about obscure friends of the northern king. I am talking about household names.

But with all those caveats, my working assumption is the current home secretary Shabana Mahmood will be the new chancellor.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to become the new chancellor. Credit: PA

If such weren’t the case, given all the prior briefing, we’d know through nods and winks – because Burnham is presumably savvy enough not to want to destabilise the markets after all his colleagues’ conditioning for Mahmood in recent days.

If it is Mahmood, it is a racing certainty that the eminent economists Jim O’Neill and/or Andy Haldane will have big advisory roles.

This could be some kind of economic growth council spanning Downing Street and the Treasury – to compensate for Mahmood’s lack of Treasury experience and economic expertise.

As for foreign secretary, those close to Burnham think it will be Ed Miliband, and that Yvette Cooper – current incumbent – would return to being home secretary.

It would be bizarre if Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, didn’t become deputy prime minister, and if Louise Haigh – so important to his elevation from Manchester mayor to PM – didn’t become his chief enforcer as chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

Finally, there is still loads of chatter that Ed Miliband’s brother David Miliband will return to government from his self-imposed New York exile in some or other senior capacity.

But if he’s not reprising his erstwhile role as foreign secretary, God knows what he will do.

Cards on table. This could all be nonsense. But perhaps it is useful nonsense, because it is an insight into what senior members of Burnham’s soon-to-be-government think is likely.

And if they are wrong, that says something important about the tightness (lack of leakiness) of his circle of trust.

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