Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Pablo Carreno Busta in the Millennium Estoril Open at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
1pt e.w. Nuno Borges in the Millennium Estoril Open at 10/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Jan-Lennard Struff in the Generali Open at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
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Millennium Estoril OpenEstoril, Portugal (outdoor clay)
Three of the four semi-finalists from last week’s tournament in Bastad head to Estoril where conditions should be fairly similar with both events down at sea level.
They include eventual champion Andrey Rublev and runner-up Luciano Darderi, who are the market leaders again this week.
With only four matches each played in Sweden and more first-round byes in operation for the top four seeds this week, it could well be that the pair are able to go deep once again.
However, the prices aren’t particularly attractive and, as is my wont, I prefer to seek alternatives to the favourites at much bigger odds.
I’ll start in the top half – that of Rublev.
Damir Dzumhur made the final in Umag at the weekend and so is another who will be aiming to stay in the groove and challenge for a title once again.
The Bosnian is out at 40/1 which is probably too big and I wouldn’t put anyone off that.
However, instead I’m going to side with PABLO CARRENO BUSTA.
The Spaniard won here back in 2017, a year after finishing runner-up. He’s also made two other semi-finals in Estoril so it’s clear he’s enjoyed playing here in the past.
We may need the 35-year-old to roll back the years somewhat but there have been some good sings from the PCB game of late.
He’s won 19 of his last 26 matches at all levels, a run which began when he claimed the Murcia Challenger title on clay.
On the main tour, he beat Jiri Lehecka at the French Open en route to the last 16 before losing in a final set to Rafael Jodar.
That result was repeated on the Wimbledon grass and when he returned to the clay in Umag last week, Carreno Busta pushed seed Camilo Ugo Carabelli to 7-5 in the decider.
In Estoril, PCB will open against an alternate in Vilius Gaubas before facing either local wild card Frederico Ferreira Silva or France’s Luca van Assche, neither of whom will be of huge concern.
Rublev could follow but if the Russian is feeling it a bit, that’s a winnable match – PCB has fully tested the world number 16 in all of their previous meetings, taking all three to a deciding set.
In short, I feel there’s enough to like about the veteran to warrant support at 18/1.
In the bottom half, NUNO BORGES will arguably have the highest levels of motivation this week at what is his home event.
It’s fair to say that maybe not everyone will be busting a gut at a 250-level event at this time of year but Borges will be determined to shine in front of the Portuguese fans.
His 2024 appearance saw him beat Lorenzo Musetti en route to the quarter-finals and he looks in a decent section of the draw for the 2026 renewal.
Importantly, Borges also looks in his best form of the season so far.
At the French Open, he defeated seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Miomir Kecmanovic before losing a tight contest with the aforementioned Rublev.
He’s since backed that up with some decent grascscourt performances, reaching the semis in Mallorca (beating Darderi) and then taking eventual champion Jannik Sinner to two tie-breaks at Wimbledon.
Last week, on his return to the claycourts, Borges was a quarter-finalist in Bastad, comfortably beating Moise Kouame and Grigor Dimitrov before Darderi took his revenge with a 7-6 6-4 win, although you had to wonder whether if would have been different had Borges taken one of his three set points in the opener.
Back the home player at 10/1.
Generali OpenKitzbuhel, Austria (outdoor clay)
Alexander Bublik is back to defend his title in Kitzbuhel – he’s also the top seed and bookies’ favourite.
He’s sure to have his backers at 7/2 with his serve an even bigger weapon up at altitude of more than 700m in the Austrian Alps.
However, the same would have been said in Gstaad last week where he lost his opening match to Quentin Halys.
I’m happy to look elsewhere.
Perhaps Gstaad finalist Raphael Collignon could be the one to dethrone Bublik. I also considered Daniel Altmaier at a big price, given he’s produced some decent results in recent weeks.
However, I prefer to look to the opposite half of the draw.
I could easily have put up last week’s selections again – Yannick Hanfmann’s ability at altitude was highlighted in that preview, as was Arthur Rinderknech’s strong record at this event (he’s a two-time semi-finalist).
However, both men are in a tricky-looking third quarter and I’m always a little reluctant to go back to the same people who let me down the week before.
Instead, let’s give JAN-LENNARD STRUFF a try at a tasty price.
The German returns to action for the first time since his unexpected run to the Wimbledon quarter-finals.
In SW19, the German defeated Brandon Nakashima, Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz before giving eventual winner Sinner a decent test, losing in three tight sets.
His first serve produced some good numbers at that tournament – it won more than 80% of points in all bar one of his matches – and if he’s able to stay in that groove, he should get some help from the thinner air which allows the balls to fizz through that bit faster.
Struff made the quarter-finals here 12 months ago – his second appearance in the Kitzbuhel last eight – so he has shown he can handle the unusual conditions.
Admittedly, a first-round clash Alexander Shevchenko won’t be easy – the Kazakh is already bedded in at altitude having made the last four in Gstaad last week.
However, Struff won their only previous meeting and, if he does survive that one, then there looks a decent chance of a deep run with Valentin Vacherot the other seed in the section – he won just one match in Gstaad.
It’s not the most confident selection of the season but I do think Struff is overpriced at 28/1.
Posted at 20:20 BST on 19/07/26
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