Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday’s Gauff-Mertens women’s singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Gauff an 80% chance of beating Mertens at the WTA China Open tournament.
Additionally, Gauff has a 74% chance of winning the first set, while the over 20.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
Moneyline: Elise Mertens +365, Coco Gauff -450
First Set: Gauff -357, Mertens +275
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
Moneyline: Mertens @ +365 via DraftKings
First Set: Mertens @ -110 via DraftKings
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 20.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first serve details
The WTA China Open match between Coco Gauff and Elise Mertens is scheduled to begin on Tuesday at 11:00 PM ET.
Who: Coco Gauff vs. Elise Mertens
Date: Tuesday, October 6, 2026
Approx. Time: 11:00 PM ET/8:00PM PT
Tournament: WTA Beijing, China Women’s Singles 2026
Round: Round of 16
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Coco Gauff, with an 80% win probability, will likely beat Elise Mertens at the WTA China Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article’s predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers’ proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.