Baird has downgraded Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD), the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker, to Neutral from Outperform and cut its price target by 60% to US$200 from US$500.
Senior research analyst Tristan Gerra warned that uncertainty surrounding potential United States export restrictions, indirect shipments to China and chief executive s future could constrain the shares.
The revised target compares with Nvidia’s closing price of US$168.89 on November 10.
Baird expects the stock to remain rangebound until investigations, regulatory decisions and potential adjustments to Asian distribution channels provide greater visibility.
The broker identified two principal regulatory risks, including a possible new ban on exports of Nvidia’s H200 processors to China.
Baird believes some shipments are reaching warehouses in Asia, where inventories may be awaiting Chinese customers, potentially exposing Nvidia to a US$5 billion write-down.
Further restrictions targeting Southeast Asian data centre operators could also close routes used to supply customers with potential Chinese demand exposure.
The broker highlighted potential Department of Justice action against Megaspeed and the prospect of other regional operators cutting orders pre-emptively.
Although demand for Nvidia’s advanced processors continues to exceed supply, Baird warned that changes to these distribution channels could create temporary revenue disruption.
Baird also delayed its 2027 data centre forecasts because of reduced visibility, citing supply constraints and initial signs of softer demand.
Capital expenditure growth among large cloud computing companies could slow to 40% or slightly less in 2027, compared with the stronger expansion previously anticipated.
The uncertainty has prompted Baird to reduce its longer-term estimates, including its 2028 earnings per share forecast from US$16 to US$15.
Gerra also believes the likelihood of a leadership transition is increasing into 2027, with an external appointment considered more likely than an internal promotion.
The analyst argued that Nvidia needs stronger internal safeguards to comply with United States export policies and restore confidence among external and internal stakeholders.
The leadership uncertainty comes as Nvidia’s board conducts an independent investigation following reports that Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort.
Baird said the shares could regain valuation support once regulatory and clear, while reaffirming that Nvidia retains a leading position in AI computing.