The 2025 Vuelta a España gets underway this weekend, with a big Italian welcome expected in Turin on Saturday 23rd August. From northern Italy, the riders will weave their way around the northern half of Spain, with the feared Angliru and plenty of rampas inhumanas along the way.
The final Grand Tour of the year has attracted hopefuls from the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France, hoping for one last hurrah on the Grand Tour stage. These include former Tour de France winner Jonas Vingegaard, Spanish talent Juan Ayuso, Portuguese engine João Almeida and last year’s runner-up Ben O’Connor. As for the sprinters, Mads Pedersen and Jasper Philipsen lead a weak sprinting field, despite the opportunity to move into the red jersey on day one.
As the riders sip on their final espressos before lift-off this weekend, we’ve put our heads together at Cyclist HQ to cast our predictions ahead of the 2025 Vuelta. For this, we’ll forecast the winners of all four classifications as well as a bonus call just for the fun of it. Chances are, none of us will be correct.
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Pete Muir (editor)
Tim de Waele/Getty Images
Cyclist editor Pete is here to set the tone. Will the Vuelta be an inevitability for the Danes?
Red jersey: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Vingegaard may have been four and a half minutes behind Pogačar at the Tour, but he was more than six and a half minutes ahead of everyone else. In a world without Pog, the Dane would be the standout Grand Tour racer of his generation. His main challengers at the Vuelta are João Almeida and Juan Ayuso (both UAE Team Emirates XRG), but they will contrive to cancel each other while both claiming that they really, honestly don’t care who is team leader. Barring a crash, it’s Ving by a mile.
Green jersey: Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
Another Dane, another jersey. Pedersen romped the points category at the Giro, leading from day one and finishing 110 points clear of his rivals. And none of those rivals are riding the Vuelta. In fact, it’s hard to see who’ll challenge him on any of the (admittedly few) flat days, so Pedersen will have it sown up by the halfway stage. Barring a crash, it’s Peds by a mile.
Polka dot jersey: Jonas Vingegaard
With more than half the stages finishing uphill, it feels like the mountain points will get mopped up by the GC guys at the front of the race. As such, the polka dot jersey will be worn most of the race by João Almeida, although in truth he’ll just be keeping it warm for the guy in red – that man Vingegaard again.
White jersey: Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
He won’t win red, so he’ll just have to petulantly accept white.
Bonus prediction: Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) to win solo on Stage 12
The stage from Laredo to Los Corrales de Buelna rambles along for 115km until it gets to the climb of Collada de Brenes, after which it’s a 23km downhill dash to the finish line. And we all know how much the boy from Leeds likes those.
Will Strickson (web editor)
Tim de Waele/Getty Images
Will’s putting the España in Vuelta a España.
Red jersey: Juan Ayuso
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the Dane. After the Giro went completely wrong for Juan Ayuso, the beast has been unleashed. He’s either fighting for his place in the team’s hierarchy or fighting for a huge transfer, and importantly doesn’t have a Grand Tour in his legs. Spanish riders go better at the Vuelta, and with no threat from Enric Mas this time, Ayuso will finally fulfil his potential, put Vingegaard and Visma to the sword and relinquish any threat from João Almeida.
Green jersey: Mads Pedersen
Mads Pedersen is pretty much the only actual sprinter here so this one’s going to be light work. It’s going to be more fuel for the massively over-egged hype train. Come back to me when he wins a Monument or the Tour de France green jersey.
Polka-dot jersey: Pablo Castrillo (Movistar)
I’m probably being nostalgic for his 2024 breakthrough, but the Vuelta KOM normally goes to a breakaway rider, so I had to pick someone and Castrillo can clearly get the job done. He didn’t stand out at the Tour de France, but this is Movistar we’re talking about. He’ll take on the Enric Mas role of peaking for the Vuelta and take the points for a famous Spanish polka dot win.
White jersey: Juan Ayuso
With red wrapped up, this is in no doubt, but watch out for the real Léo Bisiaux breakthrough.
Bonus: Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) to podium
Wouldn’t this be a dream scenario? It’ll be Ayuso, Vingegaard, Bernal and fans will be frothing at the mouth over the Colombian’s return to form. He has been as close as ever to his old self this year, flashing early in the year and being really aggressive at the Giro. He had a few months off racing after that race, returning only for the Vuelta a Burgos last week and I think he’s ramping it up. Given what we saw in Italy, I think this Vuelta will suit him more, with its regular dose of unipuerto stages for him to attack without zapping his energy for later climbs. We are so back.
Ewan Wilson (staff writer)
Xavier Pereyron
A commenter on social media recently asked if I’d been fired for my Tour de France Femmes predictions. In fairness, I did say Pauline Ferrand-Prévot wouldn’t reach the top ten.
Red jersey: Jonas Vingegaard
If it weren’t for ‘a pact’ formed in the final week of the 2023 race, Jonas Vingegaard would have already won the Vuelta a España. Now with Sepp Kuss humoured with his Grand Tour crown, it’s time for the Dane to win the Vuelta once and for all. Without Tadej Pogačar on the startlist, it’s hard to imagine any rider being near Vingegaard’s level and given that half the parcours ends on an uphill finish, I don’t think it’s outlandish to say the Visma leader could build a lead of around five minutes.
Green jersey: Mads Pedersen
As Will pointed out, this sprinting field is hardly Grand Tour quality. Besides Pedersen, who cleaned up the Giro’s points classification earlier this year, the only other sprinters to have won on a three-weeker are Jasper Philipsen, who suffered a heavy crash last month, and Elia Viviani, who is well past his sell-by date. In a landmark Vuelta for the Danes, Pedersen will move into the maillot rojo on day one, before swapping it for green to bag at least three more stages. Although Philipsen is faster on paper, Pedersen’s versatility will be the key.
Polka dot jersey: Eddie Dunbar (Jayco-AlUla)
While the ten summit finishes point towards another Danish cakewalk, no podium finisher has won the polka dot jersey at the Vuelta since Denis Menchov in 2007. With history stacked against Vingegaard, the breakaway has a chance. Ireland’s Eddie Dunbar has ditched his GC aspirations over the past year in favour of stage wins and breakaways. Now transformed into a courageous escapee, I reckon the Munsterman will part ways with Jayco-AlUla on a high note, dressed in blue polka dots in Madrid.
White jersey: Guilio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
I hear your calls: ‘Have you gone mad? Where’s Juan Ayuso?’
A fair assumption, sure, but Juan Ayuso has suffered his fair share of wobbles in recent times. The questionable tactics of the Giro weigh on my mind, as does the potential UAE Team Emirates XRG psychodrama between himself and Almeida. In that case, Giulio Pellizzari comes into the equation. Strong in the final week of the Giro, the Italian will thrive on the barrage of summit finishes, with no Primož Roglič to babysit this time. His recent form at the Vuelta a Burgos shows that he’s in decent shape too, with a hunger to score big results outside of his native Italy.
Bonus prediction: Ben Tulett (Visma-Lease a Bike) finishes inside the top ten overall
Visma-Lease a Bike’s Ben Tulett has been in scintillating form this year. On domestique duties at the Critérium du Dauphiné, the Londoner just missed out on a top ten. A recent podium finish at the Tour de l’Ain – again while supporting team leader Cian Uijtdebroeks – showed more signs of upward progress. Tulett hasn’t ridden a Grand Tour since the 2022 Giro d’Italia, but even then, he outperformed expectations. Now with more years of experience under his belt, I can see him sneaking into the top ten at the Vuelta, even surpassing his better-known domestique Matteo Jorgenson.
Laurence Kilpatrick (staff writer)
Unipublic/Sprint Cycling Agency
Laurence rode up Mont Ventoux this week. With plenty of thinking time on the bald mountain, he’s channelling his inner Australian for the Vuelta.
Red: Ben O’Connor (Team Jayco AlUla)
While I can’t disagree with the logic of my colleagues, who have erred in favour of the reptilian fish merchant, I’ve got a sneaking feeling that something will go wrong for the Dane. Staring down the barrel of cycling’s open goal, he’s going to stumble somehow. In his stead, I’m backing anti-hero in the WorldTour’s best cape, Ben O’Connor. Sure, he’s had a quiet season overall. But that stonking win on the beastly Col de la Loze reiterates his pedigree. Plus, having ceded the red jersey after weeks of wearing it last season, he will be hungry. Eddie Dunbar should prove a nice foil in the highest mountains.
Points: Mads Pedersen
Even as a paid-up contrarian, you’d be mad to see past old Mads for the points jersey. As already mentioned, there aren’t many sprinters on the plane, so it’s yet another open goal for the Scandis. Let’s see if he conspires to mess it up.
Mountains: Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
Sure, he’s had a stinking season, but you can never rule out the holder. Since the scaly old Dane will probably triumph in both categories, it’s worth having a look at the alternatives. UAE have plenty of mountain firepower in the form of Almeida and Soler to back up Ayuso, so perhaps Vine will be given some leeway to write the sequel to last year’s victory. Having not finished a race since Stage 16 of the Giro, this prediction borders on the idiotic. Lest we forget my Danny Martinez Giro 2024 prediction – perhaps I’ll be the one laughing in the end.
White: Juan Ayuso
He’s white hot, not red hot.
Bonus prediction: Egan Bernal wins a stage
We never thought Ineos and underdogs would be happy bedfellows, but here we are. Decent showing at Burgos and surely he’ll be out of the GC running promptly enough for him to be given some leash. It’s well overdue and I, for one, will be rooting for the Colombian.
Robyn Davidson (editorial assistant)
Tim de Waele/Getty Images
The Bota Lume flame has been lit. Robyn believes in a Portuguese victory.
Red jersey: João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
No one has said it yet, so I will. João Almeida will win a Grand Tour one day and he has to go for the ones not circled on Tadej Pogačar’s calendar, so that rules out the Tour de France. But the issue is, he also has to usurp teammate Juan Ayuso in the process too. This season is as good as ever, with stage race victories under his belt in Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie and Tour de Suisse. They’ll have to hit Vingegaard where it hurts given he’s head and shoulders above the rest, but it’s a long three weeks to Madrid.
Green jersey: Mads Pedersen
No explanation needed.
Polka dot jersey: Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)
This is Felix Gall’s best season yet, highlighted by his remarkable 5th place at the Tour de France. He wants to test himself on GC too at the Vuelta and acknowledged his focus on recovery given the demands of racing two Grand Tours – so even if he finds himself riding into form for the GC fight and doesn’t quite make it, freedom to go points hunting in the mountains classification might just be on the cards.
White jersey: Giulio Pellizzari
Luck hasn’t seemed to be on Antonio Tiberi’s side in Grand Tours recently (perhaps the cat was a black cat), with an abandonment at the last Vuelta and a 17th place at the Giro. I’m not entirely convinced he’s shaken this off yet, so I’m looking towards Giulio Pellizzari. The 21-year-old experienced a breakthrough Giro in 2024 then finished 6th at his home race in 2025. When helping team leader Jai Hindley to a strong GC position, he could work his way into white too.
Bonus prediction: Who wins the Vibes Classification?
I was looking forward to seeing how Max Poole would go at the Vuelta given his third place in last year’s Vibes Classification, however the Brit is recovering from the Epstein-Barr virus. The Vuelta vibes winner in Pablo Castrillo is here for his new team Movistar – could he be on for an unprecedented defended Vibes Classification crown?
Martin James (production editor)
Baloise Belgium Tour
As production editor Martin had the advantage of getting to read everyone else’s predictions before having to write his own. Which allowed him to change at least one of his original predictions and replace it with something a bit more, well… original
Red jersey: Jonas Vingegaard
Yep, it’s another vote for the (checks Laurence’s exact wording again) ‘reptilian fish merchant’. Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar looked to be riding a different race to everyone else at the Tour, and the Dane has kept away from racing action since then, so should be fresh. Given the number of uphill finishes, the strength of Visma-Lease A Bike’s climbing roster should put him in a great place to take maximum advantage, and despite the anomaly of Sepp Kuss winning a couple of years ago, they’ll all be working for him this time, which likely won’t be the case for Juan Ayuso and João Almeida at UAE Team Emirates XRG.
Green jersey: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
The fast-finishing Belgian’s dreams of wearing green at the end of the Tour de France in Paris were scuppered when he crashed on Stage 3 (while wearing green, incidentally), so now he’s pivoted to the Vuelta. And just as well, as otherwise it looked like Mads Pedersen had the points jumper pretty much won just by arriving at the Turin start line. Read everyone else’s predictions and you might think he still does. I disagree, and reckon Philipsen could make up for his French failure with Spanish success.
Polka dot jersey: Jonas Vingegaard
The heart says someone like Pablo Castrillo might prevail, but no, just like at the Tour I think it will go to the top GC rider, especially with the number of mountains points up for grab at the stage finish line at the Vuelta.
White jersey: Juan Ayuso
I can see a close fight between teammates Ayuso and Almeida for a place on the podium, but since only Ayuso is eligible for the white jersey, I’m giving him the nod here.
Bonus prediction: Antonio Tiberi to win Stage 2 to take red jersey
I’ve been keeping an eye on Tiberi’s progress for a while now, and while he didn’t manage to push on at the Giro this year after winning the white jersey in 2024, the Vuelta starting in Italy gives him a second bite at success on home soil. And no stage looks better suited to his skills than Stage 2’s steady finishing climb of Limone Piemonte – not quite hard enough for the GC men to be burning big matches, especially so early in the race, but steep enough for a decent enough climber with thousands of tifosi baying from the roadside to have enough to score what would be a massively popular win.
