Our tennis man Andy Schooler previews Monday’s action at the US Open in New York.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt Adam Walton to beat Ugo Humbert at 9/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1pt first-set tie-break in Reilly Opelka v Carlos Alcaraz at 13/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Ugo Humbert v Adam Walton
Humbert looks a seed who could be vulnerable in round one.
For a player who has been ranked as high as 13th, the Frenchman has a woeful record at this tournament, winning just three of his 10 main-draw matches at Flushing Meadows.
You’d have thought the fairly slick courts would suit his game but this is a player who prefers indoor conditions and perhaps the heat and humidity of New York isn’t really for him.
If he has doubts coming in due to that win-loss record, they will only be amplified by recent form.
Humbert has gone just 9-13 since winning the title (indoors) in Marseille in February. Of the hardcourt warm-up events, he only played Cincinnati, beating lowly-ranked qualifier Coleman Wong before having his serve taken apart by Frances Tiafoe.
Walton will surely see this first meeting with Humbert as an opportunity.
He’s been in decent form, reaching his first tour-level semi-final in Los Cabos before defeating former world number one Daniil Medvedev in Cincinnati.
Walton has also tested Alex Zverev and Jiri Lehecka on this surface in the past few weeks and I’m certainly giving the Aussie a better chance than his odds suggest.
Reilly Opelka v Carlos Alcaraz
Opelka is the gift who keeps on giving when it comes to tie-breaks.
It’s not hard to see why. He possesses one of the biggest serves on the ATP Tour but is also one of the weakest returners. That’s reflected in his stats which show he’s won 91% of his service games this season on a hardcourt and just 9% on his opponent’s delivery.
Of course, here he faces one of the biggest tests in current-day tennis with Alcaraz among the top returners.
However, this will be the pair’s first meeting so for all his return skills, there’s every chance it takes a good few games for the Spaniard to get a read on the Opelka bombs.
I would not be surprised for it to take at least six games and if that’s the case, then a first-set tie-break could easily ensue.
Opelka has played eight matches during the current hardcourt swing and six of them have resulted in a breaker.
His level of opponent means we’re getting a bigger price than usual in this market and while it’s obvious that this is a bet which could go wrong quickly, I do feel there’s value in the price of 13/5.
Posted at 1945 BST on 24/08/25
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