Facebook<\/p>\n
Tweet<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n Email Link<\/p>\n \n Warning signs have been flashing for months that the labor market has been losing steam<\/a>. Friday\u2019s closely watched jobs report is unlikely to offer any redemption.\n <\/p>\n \n So far this week, fresh employment metrics have shown that first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to an 11-week high; private-sector businesses sharply reined in their hiring last month; and August was the worst month since the Great Recession (excepting the pandemic era).\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThe labor market is showing signs of cracking,\u201d Heather Long, Navy Federal Credit Union senior economist, wrote Thursday. \u201cIt\u2019s not a red siren alarm yet, but the signs keep growing that businesses are starting to cut workers.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n The August jobs report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, is expected to show another month of tepid job gains but an unemployment rate that holds steady at 4.2%. Economists have forecast that the economy added 80,000 jobs last month, which would be a slight increase from the slower-than-expected 73,000 net gain in July.\n <\/p>\n \n The July jobs report<\/a>, and the downward revisions that came along with it, hit like a ton of bricks and triggered some extracurricular drama<\/a> in the process.\n <\/p>\n \n The month\u2019s 73,000 estimated jobs added were well below the 115,000 net gain expected and half the size of June\u2019s preliminary tally. As for May and June\u2019s gains, those were drastically slashed by a combined quarter of a million jobs.\n <\/p>\n \n Following those revisions, the three-month average was just 35,000 jobs added. Outside of the massive job losses during the onset of the pandemic, that\u2019s the slowest pace of job creation seen in nearly 15 years, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.\n <\/p>\n \n When all was said and done, President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer<\/a>, claiming, without evidence, that she manipulated the numbers for \u201cpolitical purposes.\u201d (Revisions are a \u201cfeature, not a bug\u201d of economic data, and there are explanations for what happened in May and June \u2014 more on that below).\n <\/p>\n \n Trump\u2019s nominee for the BLS commissioner, Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni, stirred plenty of controversy<\/a> and drummed up fears of political influence<\/a> on critical economic data. He has yet to appear before the Senate for a confirmation hearing.\n <\/p>\n \n In the meantime, the task of overseeing the collection of employment data has fallen to Acting Commissioner William Wiatrowski, who has served in leadership roles at the BLS for more than two decades.\n <\/p>\n \n Friday\u2019s jobs report is expected to provide some additional and much-needed clarity on the health of the nation\u2019s labor market, the bedrock for the US consumer and the economy.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cYou\u2019re definitely seeing a slowing in the labor market, a pretty marked slowing,\u201d Dan North, Allianz Trade\u2019s senior economist for North America, told CNN in an interview.\n <\/p>\n \n Through July, the US economy has added about 85,300 jobs per month. For the comparable periods in 2024, 2023 and 2022, that tally was roughly 153,300, 240,400, and 466,850, respectively.\n <\/p>\n \n Slower job growth has long been expected. The nation\u2019s labor market was coming down from pandemic-era hiring highs and supposed to be settling into a new normal.\n <\/p>\n \n However, it remains to be seen whether the current low-hire, low-fire environment that has left workers and jobseekers with few opportunities is a concerning stalling-out or something more structural entirely.\n <\/p>\n
\n <\/a><\/p>\n