{"id":125621,"date":"2025-09-09T17:11:12","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T17:11:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/125621\/"},"modified":"2025-09-09T17:11:12","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T17:11:12","slug":"after-a-century-of-progress-our-lifespans-are-hitting-a-wall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/125621\/","title":{"rendered":"After a Century of Progress, Our Lifespans Are Hitting a Wall"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\"Old<\/a>Scientists warn that life expectancy is no longer increasing at the breakneck pace of the early 20th century. Their forecasts suggest future generations may live longer, but not long enough to reach the century mark on average. Credit: Shutterstock<\/p>\n

Researchers used six different methods for their calculations and arrived at the same conclusion.<\/p>\n

The future trajectory of life expectancy remains a subject of considerable debate among scientists. At the start of the 20th century, life expectancy increased at a remarkable pace: individuals born in 1900 lived an average of 62 years, while those born in 1938 reached about 80.<\/p>\n

In a study recently published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Jos\u00e9 Andrade (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)), Carlo Giovanni Camarda (Institut national d\u2019\u00e9tudes d\u00e9mographiques (INED)), and H\u00e9ctor Pifarr\u00e9 i Arolas (University of Wisconsin-Madison) examined whether people born between 1939 and 2000 would experience comparable gains in life expectancy. Their analysis focused on 23 high-income countries with low mortality rates.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf today\u2019s generations were to follow the same trend as the one observed during the first half of the 20th century, someone born in 1980, for example, could expect to live to 100,\u201d explains Jos\u00e9 Andrade, lead author of the study and a researcher at MPIDR. \u201cWe investigated whether the pace of life expectancy gains is slowing down for current alive cohorts.\u201d To explore this, the researchers projected the life expectancy of these groups using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). They applied six distinct mortality forecasting methods\u2014statistical tools that use historical and current mortality patterns to predict future lifespans\u2014to estimate how life expectancy may evolve.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo ensure robust results, we did not just use one method, but several: some well-established ones, including the United Nations World Population Prospects, and others representing the cutting edge of mortality forecasting,\u201d said Andrade.<\/p>\n

The researchers applied two main strategies to develop the cohort mortality profiles:<\/p>\n

Period-based methods included approaches such as Lee-Carter, Smooth Constrained Mortality, Compositional Data Analysis, and the United Nations World Population Prospects (2024).
\nCohort-based methods included the Linear Lee-Carter model and the Cohort Segmented Transformation of Age-at-death Distributions.<\/p>\n

Little room for improvement<\/p>\n

\u201cAll forecasting methods show that life expectancy for those born between 1939 and 2000 is rising more slowly than in the past. Depending on the method used, the rate is slowing by between 37 and 52 percent,\u201d explains the researcher. \u201cWe forecast that those born in 1980 will not live to be 100 on average, and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this milestone. This decline is largely due to the fact that past surges in longevity were driven by remarkable improvements in survival at very young ages.\u201d<\/p>\n

During the early 20th century, infant mortality decreased sharply because of advances in medicine and improvements in living conditions, which fueled the dramatic rise in life expectancy. Today, however, mortality in these young age groups is already so low that further gains are minimal. The team\u2019s projections suggest that reductions in mortality among older populations will not progress quickly enough to offset the slower pace of improvement.<\/p>\n

\"Forecasted<\/a>Observed and forecasted cohort life expectancy: The observed and forecasted values are separated by the black vertical dashed line in 1938. The red line shows the best practice, the blue line the median, the grey line the country-specific values, and the pink line the linear extrapolation of the best practice from 1900 to 1938. Credit: MPIDR<\/p>\n

From 1900 to 1938, life expectancy rose by about five and a half months with each new generation. For those born between 1939 and 2000, the increase slowed to roughly two and a half to three and a half months per generation, depending on the forecasting method.<\/p>\n

Andrade, Camarda, and Pifarr\u00e9 i Arolas regard this result as highly robust. They argue that even if the survival among adults and older individuals were to improve at twice the rate predicted in the forecasts, the resulting gains in life expectancy would still fall short of those achieved in the first half of the 20th century.<\/p>\n

Forecasts are predictions, not certainties<\/p>\n

Mortality forecasts can never be certain as the future may unfold in unexpected ways. Events such as pandemics, new medical treatments, or societal changes can significantly affect actual life expectancy. Consequently, life expectancy may not align with anticipated trends. Therefore, forecasts should always be considered as educated estimates. It is important to note that these forecasts apply to populations, not individuals.<\/p>\n

Why is life expectancy research so important?<\/p>\n

Changes in life expectancy affect social cohesion and personal life planning. Governments must adapt healthcare systems, pension planning, and social policies. At the same time, life expectancy influences personal decisions about saving, retirement, and long-term planning. If life expectancy increases more slowly, both governments and individuals may need to recalibrate their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n

Reference: \u201cCohort mortality forecasts indicate signs of deceleration in life expectancy gains\u201d by Jos\u00e9 Andrade, Carlo Giovanni Camarda and H\u00e9ctor Pifarr\u00e9 i Arolas, 25 August 2025, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
DOI: 10.1073\/pnas.2519179122<\/a><\/p>\n

Never miss a breakthrough: Join the SciTechDaily newsletter.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Scientists warn that life expectancy is no longer increasing at the breakneck pace of the early 20th century.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":125622,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[1934,59,102,14970,6958,59557,6957,650,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-125621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-health","tag-aging","tag-gb","tag-health","tag-life-expectancy","tag-longevity","tag-max-planck-institute","tag-mortality","tag-public-health","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=125621"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125621\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/125622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=125621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=125621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=125621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}