\n Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week
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\n Fri, Sep 12 2025, 3:43 PM
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Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week<\/p>\n
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory and yields are heading out right where they started.\u00a0 In fact, yields are also right in line with the opening levels from Monday.\u00a0 This broadly suggests the market got where it was going after the jobs report and is now waiting for the next big shoe to drop. The other way to view this entire week is as an opportunity to book profits and cover shorts on the recent “steepening” trade (which favored buying 2s over 10s). Indeed, 2yr yields mostly sold off this week relative to 10s and today was the only real exception. Either way, there was no concrete cause and effect in the news or econ calendar, so chalk it up to “position squaring ahead of next week’s Fed day.”<\/p>\n
Consumer Sentiment<\/p>\n
55.4 vs 58.0 f’cast, 58.2 prev<\/p>\n
1yr inflation expectations<\/p>\n
5yr inflation expectations<\/p>\n
10:41 AM<\/p>\n
moderately weaker overnight and holding mostly sideways so far. MBS roughly unchanged and 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.063<\/p>\n
02:18 PM<\/p>\n
Holding sideways all day.\u00a0 MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 3.9bps at 4.065<\/p>\n
03:41 PM<\/p>\n
Heading out with 10s up 3.3bps at 4.059 and MBS still up 1 tick (.03).<\/p>\n