{"id":134045,"date":"2025-09-13T07:19:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T07:19:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/134045\/"},"modified":"2025-09-13T07:19:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T07:19:07","slug":"can-keir-survive-inside-the-plot-to-bring-down-the-prime-minister-keir-starmer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/134045\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Keir survive? Inside the plot to bring down the prime minister | Keir Starmer"},"content":{"rendered":"

There has been a joke going around Labour<\/a> MPs over the past week about three envelopes in Soviet Russia. \u201cWhenever you run into trouble, open them in order,\u201d the instructions go. Envelope one says: \u201cBlame your predecessor.\u201d So he does \u2013 and it works. The party officials are satisfied. A year later, problems arise again. He opens envelope two. It says: \u201cRestructure the organisation.\u201d<\/p>\n

He does a big reshuffle, changes some titles, and again buys himself some time. Finally, another crisis comes. He opens envelope three. It says: \u201cPrepare three envelopes.\u201d<\/p>\n

The problem for Keir Starmer<\/a> is that the MPs sharing the joke believe he has already opened his first two. It is becoming increasingly hard to find anybody in the Labour party who will argue that things are going anything other than disastrously for the government.<\/p>\n

They fear that attempts to deal with the multiple difficulties faced by the prime minister over the past year \u2013 many of them self-inflicted errors such as the winter fuel duty<\/a> decision, the freebies row and the handling of welfare cuts \u2013 have instead unleashed more chaos.<\/p>\n

The most recent example of this is the sacking of Peter Mandelson<\/a>. When ministers warned that his scandal-ridden history indicated he was more of a risk than an asset \u2013 even when the security services allegedly shared concerns \u2013 Starmer went ahead and appointed him.<\/p>\n

Peter Mandelson, who Starmer defended at PMQs. Photograph: Dan Kitwood\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Then, even though Mandelson had warned publicly that more \u201cembarrassing\u201d emails from him to convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein were about to be published, Starmer defended him at prime minister\u2019s questions.<\/p>\n

With his political judgment repeatedly questioned, Labour people turn to his \u201cvision\u201d for Britain. The problem is they can\u2019t identify what the prime minister really believes in. Allies say he doesn\u2019t like the \u201cV word\u201d and has made no secret of being a distinctly non-ideological politician.<\/p>\n

Instead, he believes the government should demonstrate change by making a material difference to people\u2019s lives, through schools, the NHS, the immigration system and the economy, even if that is in relatively slow, incremental steps.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s hopeless,\u201d one minister said. \u201cToo many people feel the country is in decline and the only route back is big, radical solutions. We\u2019re doing lots of good stuff but it barely gets noticed. It just doesn\u2019t hit the mark.\u201d<\/p>\n

The question being asked in the tea rooms and bars and corridors of Westminster is whether Starmer is up to the task of finding the solutions the country needs. And, increasingly, the conclusion reached among MPs is: \u201cNo.\u201d<\/p>\n

There are, of course, those in government and close to Starmer who urge calm. One veteran party figure said: \u201cI don\u2019t know what they\u2019re all panicking about. Keir is sitting on a massive majority and it\u2019s more than three years until the next election. They\u2019ve got time to turn things around.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the doubt has set in. Not just that Starmer has shown a lack of political judgment, ideological vision, or \u2013 especially when compared with the charisma of Nigel Farage \u2013 personality. But that he never had it in the first place.<\/p>\n

No governing party as far back as the 1980s has seen its polling fall so far<\/a> in its first year in power. And with the rise of Reform UK, Labour MPs worry that time is running out.<\/p>\n

The question of \u2018how\u2019<\/p>\n

It is not unusual or surprising for MPs to grumble about their party leaders \u2013 nor to discuss how they might theoretically get rid of them and replace them with somebody else.<\/p>\n

But this time it appears to be more than just idle gossip. The Guardian has spoken to MPs, ministers \u2013 including at cabinet level \u2013 and party officials who claim that below-the-radar operations to oust the prime minister are already in place.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe conversation has moved on from \u2018if\u2019. Now it\u2019s about \u2018who\u2019 and \u2018how\u2019,\u201d one MP involved in plotting said. The summer recess, when the government vacated the public arena and allowed Reform UK to shape the narrative, crystallised the need for a change.<\/p>\n

\u201cBefore then, there were quite a lot of people saying we\u2019ve got to make it work. We came back after the summer, the mood had significantly hardened,\u201d one MP said.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople in their constituencies have been getting terrible feedback. Farage has been everywhere. The mood was: this has been a fucking disaster. We\u2019ve been given nothing to do. The government just cleared the pitch.\u201d<\/p>\n

Morgan McSweeney: a lightning rod for MPs\u2019 anger. Photograph: Tayfun Salc\u0131\/Zuma Press Wire\/Rex\/Shutterstock<\/p>\n

Others have been reflecting on the timing, with the general view that next May\u2019s local elections \u2013 with Wales and dozens of councils in the north of England at risk of falling to Reform, and Scotland staying in the hands of the SNP \u2013 are a moment of particular peril for Starmer.<\/p>\n

But some don\u2019t believe Starmer can survive even that long. After Downing Street\u2019s leaden-footed response to the Mandelson row, furious MPs turned their ire on Morgan McSweeney, the No 10 chief of staff. But for most he is just a lightning rod for all their anger and disappointment.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m not even sure Starmer can survive until May,\u201d one Blair-era cabinet minister said. \u201cThe mood is dire. The message from pretty much across the board was that one more major issue like Rayner\/Peter and the dam would burst. But this is the Labour party so we shall see.\u201d<\/p>\n

Labour is not known for regicide. Unlike the Conservatives, there is no 1922 Committee to write to, nor a device that prompts a confidence vote. The Labour party, ironically, acts more like a gentleman\u2019s club. If a vote of confidence is called and carried, a leader might be expected to do the honourable thing and resign. But Jeremy Corbyn did not resign when 80% of his MPs did not back him.<\/p>\n

Over the summer recess, some ambitious MPs from the new intake met up away from Westminster to discuss the dire state of the polls. Many of them have long careers close to or within Labour, and know well the particular difficulties of the party\u2019s leadership system when it comes to the prospect of removing an unpopular leader.<\/p>\n

Under the party rules, unless there is a vacancy, potential challengers need the support of at least 20% of MPs \u2013 meaning there is a threshold of 80 to trigger a contest. Starmer would automatically be on the ballot if he wished.<\/p>\n

Alternatively, if Starmer\u2019s personal approval rating doesn\u2019t improve, his praetorian guard \u2013 potentially including McSweeney \u2013 could advise him it was time to stand down for the sake of the country, although they would also be putting themselves out of a job.<\/p>\n

The question of \u2018who\u2019<\/p>\n

Even for those MPs who feel they have answered the \u201chow\u201d part of the equation, there remains a great deal of uncertainty about the \u201cwho\u201d. \u201cIf we learnt one thing from the Tories, it should be that you must have a plan before you act. I don\u2019t think there is a perfect candidate in the current cabinet,\u201d said one MP.<\/p>\n

With Angela Rayner forced to stand down from government and a future comeback looking uncertain, the bookies\u2019 favourite is, at least for now, firmly out of the picture. As the figure to whom the party would almost certainly have turned, her departure offers Starmer a lifeline.<\/p>\n

Other names on the soft left of the party that get thrown into the mix include Ed Miliband, who MPs say has not ruled out a comeback, and Louise Haigh, the sacked transport secretary known to be a formidable organiser.<\/p>\n

On the right of the party, some MPs remain loyal to Wes Streeting as a future leader. \u201cHe has 10 times the charisma,\u201d one said. \u201cBut I don\u2019t know what his path is without some kind of deal with the left to prevent a contest. He could have done with Angela, maybe. But I don\u2019t know what that really looks like now.\u201d<\/p>\n

Allies claim that private polling of the membership is more encouraging for Streeting than might be expected. He is understood to have always been McSweeney\u2019s preferred choice as a successor, and the two men are close. But he also almost lost his seat<\/a> at the general election, over Gaza.<\/p>\n

Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, who is running for the deputy leadership, and Shabana Mahmood, the impressive new home secretary, also have ambitions that could yet be thwarted by a left-leaning membership. Neither has a leadership operation in place, although Phillipson will presumably build one for the deputy race and some MPs are already acting as outriders for Mahmood.<\/p>\n

The one name, however, that has attracted more and more warmth over recent months is that of Andy Burnham<\/a>, the mayor of Greater Manchester. MPs have shared data showing he is the only Labour politician with a net positive rating from the public. A third of the UK sees him favourably which is the political equivalent of a rave review.<\/p>\n

Burnham also reaches across the party. The Guardian has spoken to individuals in both the centrist Labour Growth Group of MPs and in the Socialist Campaign Group who have all come to the conclusion that he is the only option.<\/p>\n

He has backed Mainstream, a new network set up to change Labour\u2019s direction, and which will inevitably be seen as a vehicle that could be quickly transformed into a leadership operation if needed. When asked by the Guardian last week, Burnham did not rule out the possibility of running in a future leadership contest with the network\u2019s support.<\/p>\n

Burnham is not an MP and therefore is not eligible to run but this is not an insurmountable problem. Senior Labour party figures revealed that an existing Manchester MP who is in ill health is ready to stand down, causing a byelection \u2013 the party leadership is likely to do everything it can to block it.<\/p>\n

Andy Burnham: \u2018ready to come back\u2019. Photograph: Peter Byrne\/PA Media<\/p>\n

One Burnham ally said: \u201cAndy is ready to come back but it needs to be asap. He needs to be in place before the May elections in order to be ready. He also needs to be upfront about why he wants to come back and challenge the leadership to defy the party\u2019s wishes.\u201d<\/p>\n

But even among those who think Starmer has to go there is still uncertainty about the wisdom of such a move. \u201cThere\u2019s a calculation that needs to be made,\u201d one cabinet minister said. \u201cWe might get a boost if we put in place a different leader and they quickly get a grip. But there\u2019s a danger that we\u2019re basically saying to the country that we\u2019re the same as the Tories.\u201d<\/p>\n

Could \u2018doing better\u2019 save Starmer?<\/p>\n

So what can Starmer do about it? His allies say he is deeply frustrated that, having spent the summer thinking about how to improve government delivery and reshape the narrative, his efforts have been so spectacularly undermined by all the \u201cnoise and nonsense\u201d of recent days.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrankly, it has been derailed by a deputy prime minister who wasn\u2019t able to get her tax affairs in order or her story straight, and the serial lies and deceit of Peter Mandelson,\u201d a source close to Starmer said.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo one is oblivious to the scale of the challenge or the need to be better, least of all Keir. We know it\u2019s a difficult time and MPs are worried about their own majorities. We\u2019re more aware than anyone that things are very febrile.\u201d<\/p>\n

They insisted that Starmer, as a decent, sensible, pragmatic leader was \u201cuniquely well placed\u201d to take on Nigel Farage\u2019s rightwing populists and their exploitation of grievance and narrative of failure.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need an antidote to Farage and Trump, not our own version of it. The antidote is delivering change and making lives better. He knows he needs to do that. And he knows we need to do better,\u201d one said.<\/p>\n

But even before the May local elections there are dangerous flashpoints for the prime minister. While rising public concern over small boat crossings and the potential for tax rises in the budget were always going to be difficult challenges, with the existing mood of the party, either could now bring him down.<\/p>\n

And yet even among the small handful of people who are actively plotting Starmer\u2019s downfall, there is a fear that even a shiny new leader would be overcome by the deep systemic challenges facing the country, and help usher in the age of Farage.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis government is adrift \u2013 bobbing like a tiny cork on waves it does not have the courage to battle,\u201d said one government insider. \u201cBut even Thatcher and Blair would be struggling right now. The mix of global issues, economic disaster zone, public services crisis and immigration is a truly horrendous cocktail.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There has been a joke going around Labour MPs over the past week about three envelopes in Soviet…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":134046,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[49,50,51,47,52,48],"class_list":["post-134045","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=134045"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134045\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/134046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=134045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=134045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=134045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}