{"id":158058,"date":"2025-09-24T19:12:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T19:12:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/158058\/"},"modified":"2025-09-24T19:12:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T19:12:11","slug":"sugar-continues-to-see-weakness-on-outlook-for-abundant-global-supplies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/158058\/","title":{"rendered":"Sugar Continues to see Weakness on Outlook for Abundant Global Supplies"},"content":{"rendered":"

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25<\/a>) today is down -0.07 (-0.45%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25<\/a>) is down -4.20 (-0.91%).<\/p>\n

Sugar prices gave up an early advance today and turned lower on the prospects of abundant global supplies. \u00a0On Tuesday, \u00a0NY sugar posted a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar posted a 4-year low as they extended their 7-month downtrend. \u00a0StoneX on Tuesday projected a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the upcoming 2025\/26 season, switching from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024\/25 season.<\/p>\n

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Higher sugar output in Brazil is negative for prices. \u00a0Last Wednesday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the second half of August rose by +18% y\/y to 3.872 MT. \u00a0Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills in the second half of August increased to 54.20% from 48.78% the same time last year. \u00a0However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through August fell -1.9% y\/y to 26.758 MMT.<\/p>\n

Another bearish factor for sugar was last Tuesday’s assertion from sugar trader Sucden that India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025\/26, which is not enough to ease the country’s sugar surplus and may prompt India’s sugar mills to export as much as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of 2 MMT. \u00a0India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.<\/p>\n

On August 29, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast a global sugar deficit for the 2025\/26 season, the sixth consecutive year of sugar deficits. \u00a0The ISO projects a global 2025\/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024\/25. \u00a0The ISO also projects 2025\/26 global sugar production will rise by +3.3% y\/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025\/26 global sugar consumption will increase +0.3% y\/y to 180.8 MMT.<\/p>\n

Expectations for abundant sugar supplies are bearish for prices. \u00a0On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025\/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. \u00a0On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y\/y to a record 189.318 MMT, with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y\/y.<\/p>\n

The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. \u00a0India’s Meteorological Department reported on Monday that the cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 22 was 893.8 mm, or 7% above normal. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The outlook for higher sugar production in India is bearish for prices. \u00a0On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +19% y\/y to 34.9 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. \u00a0That would follow a -17.5% y\/y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024\/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). \u00a0<\/p>\n

The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. \u00a0On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024\/25 sugar production rose +14% y\/y to 10.00 MMT. \u00a0Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.<\/p>\n

On August 19, Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025\/26 production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a previous estimate of 45.9 MMT. \u00a0In July, Conab reported that 2024\/25 Brazil sugar production fell by -3.4% y\/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat.<\/p>\n

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y\/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025\/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y\/y to a record 177.921 MMT. \u00a0The USDA also forecasted that 2025\/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y\/y to 41.188 MMT. \u00a0The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025\/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y\/y to a record 44.7 MMT \u00a0FAS predicted that India’s 2025\/26 sugar production would rise +25% y\/y to 35.3 MMT due to favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. \u00a0FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025\/26 sugar production will climb +2% y\/y to 10.3 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On the date of publication,<\/p>\n

Rich Asplund<\/a><\/p>\n

did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.<\/p>\n

For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy<\/p>\n

here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) today is down -0.07 (-0.45%), and December London ICE white sugar #5…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":158059,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[84,467,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-158058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-markets","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158058","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=158058"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158058\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/158059"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=158058"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=158058"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=158058"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}