Kigali > Kigali 271km<\/p>\n
The big one is here, the men\u2019s road race in Kigali. Can Remco become the first man in history to do the ITT\/RR double? Can Poga\u010dar win consecutive road race titles and join the likes of Alaphilippe, Sagan and Bettini? Will we see a surprise winner?\u00a0<\/p>\n
Weather<\/p>\n
It looks like rain showers in the morning, which should dry up as the day goes on. The temperature will be 28 degrees, the rain should help those who don\u2019t like the hot\/humid conditions.<\/p>\n
Key Points<\/p>\n
The race begins with 9 laps of this circuit, before heading out to do the single ascent of Mont Kigali.<\/p>\n
5.7km at 6.4%, with a maximum of 15.9%. You can see it\u2019s a staircase climb, with three main climbing sections and two bits of flat. The crest comes with 105km still to race, making the importance of the climb somewhat unknown. After, it\u2019s back to the circuit, but via the Mur de Kigali.<\/p>\n
Around 500m at 10% and the cobbles are proper rough, this is like something you\u2019d see in Flanders. Think Paterberg but without the gutter.<\/p>\n
The circuit contains two climbs, this is C\u00f4te de Kigali Golf, 800m at 8.2%, with a maximum of 10.7%.<\/p>\n
The main event of the circuit is the cobbled climb, C\u00f4te de Kimihurura, 1.2km at 6%, with a maximum of 12.8%. This is the one you would have seen in the TT, it\u2019s properly steep at the bottom and the cobbles are fairly rough.<\/p>\n
This is the final 600m, which is the same finish you\u2019ve seen in all the races this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Tactics<\/p>\n
This is being billed as the Remco\/Pogi show, a couple of weeks ago it was simply the Pogi show, funny how things work out in this sport. All eyes will be on Belgium and Slovenia, how will they approach the race? The Slovenians are the only squad with nine riders, but despite having the numerical advantage, they look weak. The team will be hoping that Rogli\u010d and Mohori\u010d can survive deep into the race, they rest of them don\u2019t stand a chance. Belgium has eight riders, they have a stronger unit than the Slovenians, Hermans and Van Wilder will be expected to make a significant contribution in the finale.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Denmark, Italy, GB, France, Australia and Spain are the other squads with eight men, which should give them an advantage. I say should as the overall start list is weak compared to other years, some of these teams are padded out with lots of domestiques. I think the French look the strongest on paper, they\u2019ll hope the race plays out that way.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Last year, Poga\u010dar attacked with 101km to go, and despite a few hairy moments, he managed to hold on for the win. Given how he looked in the TT, I\u2019d be amazed if he tried something similar this year. Attacking from such a distance always carries risk, given his current shape, he has to wait until nearer the finish. The thing about waiting is that it also carries risk, there\u2019s a greater chance of a group getting up the road and those left in the peloton not having any domestiques left to help chase. So, just how will this race pan out?<\/p>\n
Slovenia are duty bound to control the break, I\u2019d expect Belgium to lay down a marker and also help with the chase. The first interesting moment should be Mont Kigali, will a counter move go at this point featuring some of the co-leaders\/plan Bs? Some riders have to use this climb to get ahead of the peloton, this is their only chance of surviving deep into the finale and going for a decent result. Then we have the battle in the peloton.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Most will look at Poga\u010dar and Evenepoel and think the only way of winning is to attack before the real finale kicks off, which will add some chaos into proceedings. If Slovenia and Belgium look to get riders into a move, it will be interesting to see who then chases in the peloton. I\u2019ve already mentioned that France look strong, they have multiple riders who can challenge for the podium, expect to see them looking to join every move.<\/p>\n
Back to Slovenia. The key for them has to be Rogli\u010d, but he only arrived in Rwanda on Friday, which is a debatable approach. If good, he\u2019s the one who can last with Poga\u010dar, but if he\u2019s not at the races, Poga\u010dar won\u2019t have help in the final 40km. When he runs out of support, this is when Poga\u010dar normally attacks, no matter how far out it is. Evenepoel is in a different position, he\u2019ll hope to have domestiques to help chase or to attack and put pressure on Poga\u010dar. Van Wilder showed in the TT he\u2019s in good form, Hermans has also been going well in recent races, I\u2019d expect these two to be very useful for Remco.<\/p>\n
Exactly where and when the race splits is impossible to predict before the race. Mont Kigali and Mur de Kigali can be used to detonate the peloton and massively slim down the group, despite the crest of the Mur coming with 100km to go. I\u2019m praying it kicks off here, I cannot stress how hard Mur de Kigali is, even though it\u2019s only 500m long.<\/p>\n
Championship races like this are a nightmare to predict, just look at last year. The lap circuit is challenging, it\u2019s a long race, we\u2019re late in the season, the race takes place at altitude, it\u2019s probably going to be humid, some riders come from the Vuelta and form is unknown, others approach with only a handful of races in the legs, I think you can see why it\u2019s hard to predict. In terms of difficulty, it\u2019s about as hard as you can get. Very long, a huge amount of climbing, tough cobbled climbs and the race takes place at altitude, the ingredients are all there for a brilliant race. I think it explodes on Mont Kigali and Mur de Kigali, allowing a strong group to get ahead of the peloton. When the favourites start to fire, a handful of them will make it across to the front and fight for the win. Those in the earlier move have a great chance of taking home a medal.<\/p>\n
Contenders<\/p>\n
Tadej Poga\u010dar\u00a0\u2013 I didn\u2019t think he\u2019d win Montr\u00e9al or the TT, the signs were clear that he wasn\u2019t at his best. His illness before Canada clearly had a big impact on him, but I think more important than that was his decision to not go to altitude after the Tour de France. To win this race, his level needs to rise significantly, his TT was as poor as I\u2019ve seen him in recent years. Of course, this is Poga\u010dar I\u2019m talking about, the best cyclist there\u2019s ever been, he is capable of turning things around and taking the win. From a racing point of view, I\u2019d like to see him isolated early, will he do his usual and go long? Because of who he is, he\u2019s still starting the race as the big favourite.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Remco Evenepoel\u00a0\u2013 what a sensational performance last Sunday, winning by 1:14 and catching Poga\u010dar was huge. Remco\u2019s preparation for this race has been perfect, he went to altitude and got some decent racing in the legs in the Tour of Britain. I wouldn\u2019t normally think a cobbled climb suits him more than Poga\u010dar, but he was better than him on C\u00f4te de Kimihurura last week. When Remco is in this shape, he\u2019s a very hard man to beat, even for the mighty Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n
Isaac Del Toro\u00a0\u2013 can he cope with a race this long and challenging? He\u2019s already got 64 race days in his legs, that\u2019s a lot for someone so young. He was decent enough in the TT, but not as good as I had hoped. His record this season is very impressive, 13 wins is a sensational return, but winning a race like this at 21 is too much in my opinion.<\/p>\n
Julian Alaphilippe\u00a0\u2013 won in Qu\u00e9bec but was sick after, which led to his withdrawal in Montr\u00e9al. He\u2019s said it took him quite a few days to recover, at one point earlier this week he still doubted whether he\u2019d recover in time, but he now says everything is good again. I\u2019m sorry to say that given his preparation, he won\u2019t be a feature in the finale.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Ben Healy\u00a0\u2013 if anyone can upset the big two, it\u2019s Ben Healy. Luxembourg was used to sharpen him up, day by day he looked stronger and stronger. You just know he\u2019s going to go long and try to put pressure on Evenepoel and Poga\u010dar. If they look at each other, Healy has what it takes to disappear up the road and take the rainbow jersey.<\/p>\n
Juan Ayuso\u00a0\u2013 imagine the scenes if he beats Poga\u010dar in a sprint! It\u2019s been announced that he\u2019s leaving UAE and is off to Lidl \u2013 Trek, it wasn\u2019t a big surprise as the Spaniard didn\u2019t really get on with some of his teammates. His performance in the Vuelta was a little bizarre, good enough to win two stages, but not good enough to do much for Almeida. Having saved some energy throughout the Vuelta, he could be one of the best in this race.<\/p>\n
Tom Pidcock\u00a0\u2013 this is the first time he\u2019s done a 3-week race and then tried to peak again straight after. This is not an easy thing to do, but then again, the Vuelta wasn\u2019t the hardest race in the world. This type of race is very good for the Englishman, he would normally be good here, but it\u2019s all to do with his post-Vuelta recovery.<\/p>\n
Quinn Simmons\u00a0\u2013 9th\u00a0last year was a big result; I think he can do even better this year. Quinn was brilliant in the Tour de France, frequently making breakaways and looked to take the next step in his career. Recently, he was 3rd\u00a0in Montr\u00e9al, a very good indicator of what he can do in Rwanda. I\u2019ll name him as my dark horse for the podium.<\/p>\n
Richard Carapaz\u00a0\u2013 when at his best, he\u2019s still one of the best in the world. The altitude will give him a slight advantage and he knows how to win big races.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Mattias Skjelmose\u00a0\u2013 despite a decent performance in Luxembourg, I get the feeling his level is a little under his best, mainly due to his interrupted season. I don\u2019t see him fighting for the podium.<\/p>\n
Giulio Ciccone\u00a0\u2013 started the Vuelta in great form but then faded and the rumour was he developed a saddle sore and picked up a fever. This race takes place just 2 weeks after the final stage in Madrid, I\u2019m doubtful about his chances.<\/p>\n
Jay Vine\u00a0\u2013 one day races and Jay Vine go together like chalk and cheese, most of the time, he doesn\u2019t even bother to race them. However, the form is clearly very good, but can he be trusted?<\/p>\n
Prediction Time<\/p>\n
Given what\u2019s happened over the last couple of weeks, I\u2019m going with\u00a0Remco Evenepoel.<\/p>\n
Betting Corner<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a crazy price for Poga\u010dar, you need your head read I\u2019ve you\u2019re considering putting money on him. Yes, he can win, but with what happened last week I\u2019d be looking at 1\/1. Some of you will be drawn to riders at long odds, but remember, surprises don\u2019t often happen in a race like this. I think Remco wins and I\u2019ll happily put my money where my mouth is.<\/p>\n
Previews in 2026<\/p>\n
For the last 2 years my previews have been behind a paywall, this is an example of what I produce. The cost right now is \u00a350 for the full season, which is over 300 previews. This is the early bird offer which is available until the end of this season, it goes to \u00a360 after that. As usual, the price decreases throughout the year, but getting in now is clearly the best option! Your support is really appreciated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kigali > Kigali 271km The big one is here, the men\u2019s road race in Kigali. Can Remco become…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":162792,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[4985,101,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-162791","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-cycling","8":"tag-cycling","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-uk","11":"tag-united-kingdom","12":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162791","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=162791"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162791\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/162792"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=162791"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=162791"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=162791"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}