![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0_Reform-UK-Leader-Nigel-Farage-Holds-Press-Conference-In-Westminster.jpg\")
Nigel Farage woiuld become Prime Minister if an election was held today,, the new poll predicts(Image: Getty Images)<\/p>\nNew data provides grim reading for many local Labour and Tory MPsNigel Farage woiuld become Prime Minister if an election was held today,, the new poll predicts(Image: Getty Images)<\/p>\n
Reform UK would win a total of 15 seats in Greater Manchester if a general election were held today, according to a new \u2018mega poll\u2019 of UK voters.<\/p>\n
Seat-by-seat analysis by YouGov, based on a survey of 13,000 individuals, indicates that if an election were held now, the party led by Nigel Farage would win 311 seats in the Commons.<\/p>\n
This falls just shy of a majority, but leaves no room for any other party to take the reins of the country.<\/p>\n
Reform currently boasts only five MPs, and none in Greater Manchester. However the the poll forecasts a huge gain of 306 seats for the party which succeeded UKIP after the Brexit vote.<\/p>\n
Never miss a story with the MEN’s daily Catch Up newsletter – get it in your inbox by signing up here<\/a><\/p>\n The extensive poll suggests Labour<\/a> would only manage to win 144 out of 650 seats, a significant drop from the 411 they secured last year, many of which it is predicted would fall to Reform.<\/p>\n In Greater Manchester, this would mean the capture of 15 seats by them. These include Angela Rayner’s seat of Ashton-under-Lyne, and Stalybridge<\/a> and Hyde<\/a> and Wigan<\/a> held by cabinet members Jonathan Reynolds and Lisa Nandy respectively.<\/p>\n According to the data, Reform would also win a dozen others, including three seats in Bolton<\/a>, three in Wigan, two in Bury<\/a>, two in Rochdale<\/a>, two in Oldham<\/a> and one in Salford<\/a>.<\/p>\n Type your postcode into our interactive map to find out if your constituency is set to vote for Reform.<\/p>\n Labour would be left with just nine seats in the region and the Lib Dems<\/a> their two currently held seats in Stockport<\/a>. The Tories would win none, with their nearest seat being Tatton, the poll predicts.<\/p>\n Nationally, the data suggests the Tories would be virtually obliterated. The poll indicates that Kemi Badenoch’s party would only secure 45 seats. Meanwhile, the SNP would gain 37 and the Greens would obtain seven.<\/p>\n The predicted outcome would mark Labour’s poorest performance in the Commons since 1931. Even the 2019 general election debacle under Jeremy Corbyn saw Labour secure 202 seats.<\/p>\n Other high-profile Labour figures predicted to lose their seats include Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner.<\/p>\n The Conservatives<\/a> are projected to lose 60% of their frontbench, with Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Sir Mel Stride among those expected to be ousted, according to the poll.<\/p>\n However, pollsters note that Reform has yet to be tested nationally in government or opposition. With the party now holding seats for the first time, they will have a record to defend by the time of the next election.<\/p>\n It remains to be seen if this untested movement can hold up to voter expectations under sustained scrutiny.<\/p>\n The news comes just two days before Sir Keir Starmer faces the Labour annual conference in Liverpool.<\/p>\n The PM has faced a series of challenges and will need to present a clear vision to rejuvenate the party. He will have to contend with criticism from Andy Burnham<\/a> echoing in his ears.<\/p>\n The Mayor of Greater Manchester, Mr Burnham, has accused Sir Keir Starmer’s team of fostering a ‘climate of fear’, stating that a ‘wholesale change’ is necessary to rectify the situation.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0_World-Leaders-Attend-Global-Progress-Action-Summit-In-London.jpg\")
The data will be concerning reading for PM Sir Keir Starmer ahead of Labour Party conference(Image: Getty Images)<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0_14-08-2025_RJ_ALevels-26JPG.jpg\")
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has said Labour faces an ‘existential threat'(Image: Ryan Jenkinson | Manchester Evening News)<\/p>\n