{"id":166206,"date":"2025-09-28T15:16:09","date_gmt":"2025-09-28T15:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/166206\/"},"modified":"2025-09-28T15:16:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-28T15:16:09","slug":"economists-favour-christopher-waller-to-head-fed-but-doubt-he-will-get-the-job","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/166206\/","title":{"rendered":"Economists favour Christopher Waller to head Fed but doubt he will get the job"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Unlock the Editor\u2019s Digest for free<\/p>\n<p class=\"article__content-sign-up-topic-description o3-type-body-base\">Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.<\/p>\n<p>Academic economists overwhelmingly want Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller to succeed Jay Powell as chair of the central bank next year \u2014 but few think he will get the job. <\/p>\n<p>In a Financial Times poll conducted by the Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago\u2019s Booth School of Business, 82 per cent of the economists surveyed chose Waller as their favourite to become head of the world\u2019s most important central bank. <\/p>\n<p>However, just a fifth of the academics polled think he will succeed Powell in 2026. <\/p>\n<p>Instead, Kevin Hassett is seen as the man most likely to head the Fed by the 44 respondents, with 39 per cent saying the chair of the White House\u2019s National Economic Council is the favourite. <\/p>\n<p>The split between who economists want to get the job and who they think will become the next chair reflects the fierce pressure the Fed has come under from US President Donald Trump. <\/p>\n<p>Trump has repeatedly said that he wants the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/federal-reserve\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Fed<\/a> to cut rates to 1 per cent \u2014 a move he claims would boost growth and lower the US government\u2019s borrowing costs. He has labelled Powell a \u201cmoron\u201d and a \u201cnumbskull\u201d for refusing to lower interest rates at such an aggressive pace. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#25337569\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"o-message__content-main\">Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/25337569\/thumbnail\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Fed this month cut rates for the first time since December, lowering the benchmark federal funds target range by a quarter point to 4-4.25 per cent. <\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s latest pick for the Fed board, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/16412ff7-bb96-40c8-b94a-5e422dc57a90\" data-trackable=\"link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Stephen Miran<\/a>, was the sole dissenter, backing a 50 basis point cut \u2014 and calling for an additional five quarter point cuts by the end of the year, more than double what any other senior Fed official wants. <\/p>\n<p>Waller did not back Miran\u2019s calls for a bigger half-point, despite being one of two dissenters supporting a quarter-point cut at the previous vote in July.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWaller looks like a central banker, rather than someone who is prostrating himself for the job of Fed chair,\u201d said Robert Barbera, of Johns Hopkins University. \u201cAnd that\u2019s precisely why he won\u2019t get it.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>None of the respondents to the poll want Miran to become the next chair \u2014 though a fifth view him as the likeliest candidate. <\/p>\n<p>Betting markets, meanwhile, think Waller is the favourite, with Hassett a close second. <\/p>\n<p>Trump has suggested former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, Hassett and Waller are his preferred picks. He views loyalty and a willingness to aggressively cut rates as essential requirements for whoever he chooses. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#25337791\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"o-message__content-main\">Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/25337791\/thumbnail\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pressure on the US central bank was raised several notches last month when Trump attempted to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud. <\/p>\n<p>Cook has denied the allegations and is contesting the US president\u2019s move in court, in what is set to become a landmark case in establishing how strong the separation between monetary policymaking and the executive branch is. <\/p>\n<p>US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is currently conducting a first round of interviews for the new Fed chair, with Marc Sumerlin \u2014 one of 11 candidates on the longlist \u2014 interviewed on Friday. <\/p>\n<p>The first round of the interview process is expected to conclude within the next two weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Bessent \u2014 a former favourite, until Trump signalled he wanted the former hedge fund manager to stay put at the Treasury \u2014 has signalled that he would like the next Fed chair to rethink the US central bank\u2019s governance and shrink its balance sheet, which has been bloated by quantitative easing operations. <\/p>\n<p>The respondents to the FT Chicago-Booth poll picked from a list of five candidates seen as favourites for the role of Fed chair \u2014 Waller, Hassett, Bessent, Warsh and Miran. <\/p>\n<p>The successful candidate could face the challenge of steering monetary policy amid a weakening US labour market and inflation driven up by Trump\u2019s tariffs on US imports. <\/p>\n<p>Most Fed officials think Trump\u2019s tariffs will induce one-off rises in the price of a small number of US goods and are prioritising a slowdown in job creation over the risk of a wave of US inflation. <\/p>\n<p>However, the academic economists polled believe that the prospect of a bout of stagflation, where unemployment and inflation both rise at the same time, is increasing. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#25338409\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"o-message__content-main\">Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/25338409\/thumbnail\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe dual mandate puts the Fed in a bind, but if recent history is any guide \u2014 the last couple of decades, at least \u2014 the FOMC tends to prioritise employment over inflation,\u201d said Nikolai Roussanov, of the Wharton School. <\/p>\n<p>Brad DeLong, of the University of California, Berkeley, warned of slowing growth as global supply chains reroute around the US because of tariffs.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSomething is likely to break badly\u201d in the economy, he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Unlock the Editor\u2019s Digest for free Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":166207,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-166206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=166206"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166206\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/166207"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=166206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=166206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=166206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}