Apologising for the cliche, Dr Jac Larner, a polling expert at Cardiff University who is from Caerphilly,<\/a> said the byelection may be the \u201ccanary in the coalmine\u201d for a fundamental change in the UK political landscape.<\/p>\n If polling, which has suggested that an ailing Labour party could be pushed into third<\/a> place in one of its traditional heartlands by a surge from the right in the shape of Reform UK and the left in Plaid Cymru, is correct, the shock waves will be felt not only in Cardiff but from London to Edinburgh and just about everywhere in between.<\/p>\n Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru\u2019s hopeful for the Senedd seat, feels it is an optimistic time for his party. Photograph: Francesca Jones\/The Guardian<\/p>\n \u201cLabour is facing an existential crisis in Wales that threatens to end over a century of political dominance,\u201d Larner said. \u201cTo understand the magnitude of this collapse, consider Labour\u2019s unparalleled Welsh heritage.<\/p>\n \u201cWales is the home of its first leader, Keir Hardie, and its spiritual leader, Aneurin Bevan, and by the next Senedd election [in 2026] it will have been 103 years since Labour was not the largest party in a major Welsh election \u2013 the longest such streak of any party anywhere in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n Larner said if Reform wins or does well in Caerphilly it adds weight to the thesis that Nigel Farage\u2019s party is fundamentally reshaping Britain\u2019s political landscape.<\/p>\n In addition, other parties could replicate Plaid\u2019s progress. \u201cThe SNP could capitalise on Labour struggles in Scotland, or the Liberal Democrats and Greens could gain in England,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The main route through the town of Caerphilly passes the biggest castle in Wales <\/a>and a bronze statue of the magician and comedian Tommy Cooper<\/a>. At the moment there are also three campaign offices on the main drag as Labour, Reform and Plaid all try to make their presence felt.<\/p>\n Nigel Farage and Ll\u0177r Powell, Reform\u2019s candidate for Caerphilly, this month. Photograph: Ben Birchall\/PA<\/p>\n When the Guardian visited, the contrast between the offices of the two leading contenders \u2013 Reform and Plaid \u2013 was marked.<\/p>\n Visitors to the Reform base are greeted by a staff member with the air of a bouncer rather than a receptionist. Its candidate, Ll\u0177r Powell<\/a>, was there but did not have time to chat.<\/p>\n The staff member handed out campaign leaflets that tell a familiar tale. One calls on voters to \u201cStop Labour and Plaid Cymru\u2019s mass immigration agenda\u201d.<\/p>\n Migration is not a devolved issue, but Reform wants the Welsh government\u2019s \u201cnation of sanctuary\u201d plan<\/a>, a framework for helping refugees find homes and jobs, scrapped.<\/p>\n The Plaid office could not have been more welcoming, with its candidate, Lindsay Whittle<\/a>, a local councillor for half a century, popping out for a chat. He said it was the most upbeat campaign for the nationalists here since the Caerphilly byelection of 1968 when Plaid cut Labour\u2019s majority from more than 21,000 to less than 2,000.<\/p>\n Whittle reminisced about the Joan Baez and Bob Dylan protest songs of that era, the Prague spring and pro-Alexander Dub\u010dek graffiti scribbled on the fabric of the castle. \u201cExciting times!\u201d<\/p>\n Rhun ap Iorwerth,<\/a> the Plaid leader, brought it back to the present. \u201cThis is an area linked most with Labour dominance, not for 10 or 20 years, but over a century,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd we are seeing a change of historic proportions.\u201d<\/p>\n Ap Iorwerth said there was a \u201cdeep sense\u201d among citizens that the Tories and Labour had forgotten them. \u201cThat\u2019s left a vacuum.\u201d He argued, as he would, that Plaid provided a \u201cpositive alternative\u201d to fill this gap.<\/p>\n The Plaid leader said he thought that the people of Caerphilly were tired of Reform\u2019s focus on migration. \u201cMigration isn\u2019t even devolved to Wales,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is the sowing and perpetuating of divisions and tensions.\u201d<\/p>\n Reform\u2019s arrival in the town is certainly causing discomfort. Their office is surrounded by businesses \u2013 grocery stores, barber shops and nail salons \u2013 that are staffed by relative newcomers to the UK.<\/p>\n \u201cIt makes us feel scared when we see them here,\u201d said one shopkeeper, who started a business in the town having arrived in the UK from the Middle East. \u201cWe are contributing, paying our taxes but we see the leaflets and it worries us.\u201d The shopkeeper asked not to be identified because he feared reprisals.<\/p>\n Cath, who was pushing her grandchild in a pram, expressed disappointment at Starmer. \u201cI voted for him and had every hope for him. I feel let down by him.\u201d<\/p>\n But she was worried about Reform. \u201cThey just tell people what they want to hear.\u201d<\/p>\n Caerphilly\u2019s Piccadilly pub will host a Reform community event. Photograph: Francesca Jones\/The Guardian<\/p>\n But the Reform message is hitting home for some. The Piccadilly pub in the town has put up Reform posters in its windows and will host a \u201ccommunity event\u201d there. \u201cI believe we need change,\u201d said the landlady, Christine. \u201cI hope they put a spoke in some wheels.\u201d<\/p>\n Labour\u2019s standing in Wales has dropped off a cliff since Vaughan Gething stepped down as first minister last year<\/a> amid a donations scandal. His successor, Eluned Morgan, has tried \u2013 but so far failed \u2013 to draw a line between Welsh Labour and the increasingly unpopular UK party.<\/a><\/p>\n According to a YouGov poll<\/a>, only 14% of people would vote for Labour at the Senedd (Welsh parliament) elections compared with Plaid Cymru (30%) or Reform UK (29%). The party polled just ahead of the Conservatives (11%).<\/p>\n Laura McAllister<\/a>, a professor at the Wales Governance Centre that is part of the University of Cardiff, said fatigue and frustration had gripped Welsh Labour. \u201cHaving been in power for so long, the party hasn\u2019t been able to reinvent itself, modernise itself, refresh itself.\u201d<\/p>\n Will Hayward<\/a>, who publishes a newsletter on Welsh politics, said it was difficult to overstate the trouble Welsh Labour was in. He also pointed out that success for Reform in Wales would lead to a sharp rise in staffers working for the party who are able to promote it across the UK.<\/p>\n Labour has chosen a political newcomer to fight Caerphilly. Richard Tunnicliffe<\/a> runs a Welsh language publishing business and was thrust into this election campaign after the death of his friend Hefin David<\/a>, who represented Caerphilly since 2016.<\/p>\n Welsh Labour has gone on the offensive, dismissing the Reform candidate as Farage\u2019s \u201cpuppet\u201d and claiming Caerphilly had little to show from the Plaid contender\u2019s 50 years of service to the area.<\/p>\n But Tunnicliffe\u2019s endorsement of Starmer sounded lukewarm. Asked whether the UK prime minister was listening to people, he replied: \u201cI think he is having to listen to people.\u201d<\/p>\n He said he was prepared to speak up against his own party. For example, he is opposing the Labour-run local authority\u2019s plans to close libraries.<\/a><\/p>\n Tunnicliffe said people wanted change, not tribalism. \u201cPeople feel things have been going backwards. People are feeling they\u2019re not listened to, things have been done to them, not with them.\u201d<\/p>\n It is a refrain that under-pressure candidates may be repeating ad nauseam across the UK in the next few years.<\/p>\n Quick GuideContact us about this storyShow The best public interest journalism relies on first-hand accounts from people in the know.<\/p>\n If you have something to share on this subject, you can contact us confidentially using the following methods.<\/p>\n Secure Messaging in the Guardian app<\/p>\n The Guardian app has a tool to send tips about stories. Messages are end to end encrypted and concealed within the routine activity that every Guardian mobile app performs. This prevents an observer from knowing that you are communicating with us at all, let alone what is being said.<\/p>\n If you don’t already have the Guardian app, download it (iOS<\/a>\/Android<\/a>) and go to the menu. 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