{"id":168714,"date":"2025-09-29T18:47:09","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T18:47:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/168714\/"},"modified":"2025-09-29T18:47:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T18:47:09","slug":"final-look-at-housing-markets-in-august-and-a-look-ahead-to-september-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/168714\/","title":{"rendered":"Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales"},"content":{"rendered":"

After the National Association of Realtors\u00ae (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report<\/a>, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in August.<\/p>\n

There were several key stories for August:<\/p>\n

Sales NSA are down 1.2% YoY through August, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!<\/p>\n

Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 2 1\/2 years.<\/p>\n

Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for August since 2015).<\/p>\n

The median price is up 2.0% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines – and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026).<\/p>\n

Sales at 4.00 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were slightly above the consensus estimate.<\/p>\n

Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of August in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n

In August, sales in these markets were down 1.8% YoY. The NAR reported sales NSA were down 0.8% year-over-year in August (close).<\/p>\n

Important: There were one fewer working days in August 2025 (21) as in August 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was positive while the NSA data showed a decline (there are other seasonal factors).<\/p>\n

Notes for all tables:<\/p>\n

New additions to table in BOLD.<\/p>\n

Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS\u00ae<\/a><\/p>\n

Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver and Minneapolis (included in state totals)<\/p>\n

Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For next month (September 2025 sales): There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).<\/p>\n

September sales will be mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates averaged 6.72% in July and 6.59% in August (somewhat lower than for closed sales in August). <\/p>\n

My early expectation is that we will see existing home sales (SA) up in September compared to September 2024 (3.90 million SAAR – the low for 2024). <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Sales were up 1.8% year-over-year compared to August 2024. Next month will also have an easy year-over-year comparison.<\/p>\n

Total sales last year (2024) were the lowest since 1995 (lower than any year during the housing bust), so it says something that sales are tracking slightly lower in 2025!<\/p>\n

Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For these areas, new listings were down 2.0% year-over-year.<\/p>\n

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 7.0% year-over-year.<\/p>\n

New listings have slowed and are still down 18.4% compared to August 2019 activity.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Inventory was up 16.1% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 19.9% YoY.<\/p>\n

Comparing to August 2019, there are significant regional differences!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

More local data coming in October for activity in September! <\/p>\n

Thanks for reading CalculatedRisk Newsletter! This post is public so feel free to share it.<\/p>\n

Share<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After the National Association of Realtors\u00ae (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":168715,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[84,467,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-168714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-markets","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=168714"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168714\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/168715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=168714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=168714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=168714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}