{"id":171548,"date":"2025-09-30T23:57:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T23:57:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/171548\/"},"modified":"2025-09-30T23:57:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T23:57:07","slug":"theres-only-one-trade-that-ever-works-on-a-government-shutdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/171548\/","title":{"rendered":"There&#8217;s only one trade that ever works on a government shutdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">The Democrats and Republicans are doing the usual shutdown song and dance.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">It will get resolved, it always gets resolved. The impacts are far more meaningful to people in news media and markets. The only trade that&#8217;s ever worked surrounding a government shutdown is to fade any initial market moves, because it&#8217;s always resolved.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Following the comments of politicians regarding the shutdown is a waste of time, because they&#8217;re rarely telling any kind of truth. <\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">Maybe it will result in some economic data being delayed but that&#8217;s about the maximum extent that anyone in markets should care about the minute-to-minute of this latest saga. The longest ever shutdown came in Trump&#8217;s first term and lasted 35 days and the impact was 0.1 percentage points of GDP. The S&amp;P 500 dipped 2.1% initially then ultimately rallied 10.1% during the shutdown.<\/p>\n<p data-v-4026719d=\"\">In terms of data, it could lead to a 0.1 pp uptick in unemployment and around 40K jobless claims, which would quickly revert afterwards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Democrats and Republicans are doing the usual shutdown song and dance. It will get resolved, it always&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":171549,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-171548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/171548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=171548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/171548\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/171549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=171548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=171548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=171548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}