Bengaluru – Goldman Sachs raised on Oct 6 its December 2026 gold price forecast to US$4,900 per ounce from US$4,300, citing strong Western exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and likely central bank buying.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate,\u201d Goldman said.<\/p>\n
Spot gold was trading around US$3,960 per ounce, as of 0130 GMT on Oct 7, after hitting a fresh high of US$3,977.19 earlier in the day.<\/p>\n
Gold, traditionally seen as a refuge from political and economic uncertainty, has soared 51 per cent so far in 2025 on strong central bank buying, increased demand for gold-backed ETFs, a weaker US dollar and growing interest from retail investors seeking a hedge against rising trade and geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n
Goldman expects central bank buying to average 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, saying emerging market central banks are likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s central bank added gold to its reserves in September for the eleventh straight month, official data from the People\u2019s Bank of China (PBOC) showed on Oct 7.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s gold reserves rose to 74.06 million fine troy ounces at the end of September from 74.02 million ounces at the end of August.<\/p>\n
Its gold reserves were valued at US$283.29 billion (S$365.9 billion) at the end of September, up from US$253.84 billion at the end of August, the PBOC said.<\/p>\n
\u201cA strong figure would reinforce the idea that China is keen to de-dollarize and accelerate its actions in that space,\u201d said independent analyst Ross Norman.<\/p>\n
\u201cFurther purchases, even modest ones, will be seen domestically as positive for a price-sensitive market. It may narrow the significant discounts at Loco Shanghai. It will give investors, ETF buyers, and institutions confidence that gold will continue rising.\u201d<\/p>\n
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said Western ETF holdings are expected to rise as the US Federal Reserve is seen lowering the funds rate by 100 basis points by mid-2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn contrast, noisier speculative positioning has remained broadly stable. Following the large September increase, the level of Western ETF holdings has now fully caught up with our US rates-implied estimate, suggesting the recent ETF strength is not an overshoot,\u201d it said. REUTERS<\/p>\n
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