{"id":201727,"date":"2025-10-15T12:00:10","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T12:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/201727\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T12:00:10","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T12:00:10","slug":"arsenal-are-just-one-point-clear-at-the-top-of-the-premier-league-but-is-there-any-catching-them","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/201727\/","title":{"rendered":"Arsenal Are Just One Point Clear at the Top of the Premier League, But Is There Any Catching Them?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arsenal<\/a>
\nare top of the Premier League and favourites to win the title with
\nthe Opta supercomputer. Is their one-point lead somehow
\nunassailable?<\/p>\n

We may only be halfway through October, but the most recent
\nPremier League weekend felt significant in the title race.<\/p>\n

Aside from the end of Matchdays 1 and 2 of the Premier League
\nthis season, MD7 was the first time in almost a year \u2013 since MD9 in
\n2024-25 \u2013 that Liverpool had not been top of the table at the
\nconclusion of a gameweek.<\/p>\n

Last season, they went top after MD10 in early November and
\ncould not be caught, retaining the lead for the next 28 rounds of
\nfixtures.<\/p>\n

But now, Liverpool<\/a>
\nhave followed up their five-match winning streak at the start of
\nthe season with successive defeats to Crystal Palace and Chelsea,
\nand as a result, lost top spot to Arsenal. The lead may only be one
\npoint, but given how solid Mikel Arteta\u2019s impressive side have
\nlooked, it\u2019s reasonable to wonder now whether they will be
\ncaught.<\/p>\n

A one-point lead with 93 points still to be played for is hardly
\nunassailable. It clearly isn\u2019t. But at this early stage of the
\nseason, Arsenal look incredibly strong and decidedly lacking in
\nweaknesses. The aim now will be to do what Liverpool did a year ago
\nand cling on to first place for the rest of the campaign.<\/p>\n

\"Premier<\/p>\n

Arsenal have had a tough start, already facing Liverpool,
\nManchester
\nCity<\/a>, Newcastle<\/a>
\nand Manchester
\nUnited<\/a>, with their league-topping record built on the firm
\nfoundations of their exceptional defence.<\/p>\n

Arsenal have conceded only three goals in seven games despite
\nplaying some very good teams, giving them the best defensive record
\nin the Premier
\nLeague<\/a>. They also lead the top flight for expected goals
\nagainst (xGA), having allowed their opponents chances worth just
\n4.39 xG across their seven games.<\/p>\n

They have David
\nRaya<\/a> to thank in part for their overperformance of 1.39
\ncompared to their xGA, but even if they had conceded goals exactly
\nin line with their xG, they\u2019d still be letting in under a goal a
\ngame. Even conceding goals at that rate, Arsenal would still have a
\nvery good chance of winning the league.<\/p>\n

At the other end of the pitch, they appear to be finding their
\nfeet after coming in for some criticism for being too reliant on
\nset-pieces, while accusations of them \u201cplaying with the handbrake
\non\u201d were persistent after they fell to a 1-0 defeat at
\nLiverpool.<\/p>\n

But they rank third in the Premier League for xG, with 12.2.
\nThey have had at least 43 more touches in the opposition\u2019s box
\n(249) than any other team, and even when discounting set-pieces,
\nthey have fared decently enough creatively, ranking seventh for xG
\nfrom open play with 6.2.<\/p>\n

And they\u2019ve actually only scored five goals from that 6.2 xG, so
\nthey could have done even better in open play with slightly better
\nfinishing.<\/p>\n

\"Arsenal<\/p>\n

Their incredible record at set-pieces is sometimes used as a
\nstick to beat them with because it can appear they are
\nonly really trying to score from corners and don\u2019t make
\nuse of their attacking talent to beat teams in open play.<\/p>\n

But what then should be said of their most recent results \u2013
\nconsecutive 2-0 wins over Olympiakos in the Champions League and
\nWest
\nHam<\/a> in the Premier League \u2013 in which they created tonnes of
\nchances in open play and didn\u2019t require a corner or free-kick
\ngoal?<\/p>\n

\"Arsenal<\/p>\n

\"Arsenal<\/p>\n

Those wins took Arsenal\u2019s winning streak to four games, and they
\nhave won eight of their 10 games this season, conceding just three
\ngoals. They appear to be better than they were last season, and the
\n
\nOpta Power Rankings<\/a> agree; Arsenal are now ranked as the best
\nteam in the world according to our model.<\/p>\n

Arteta went big in the summer transfer window, and the evidence
\non the pitch suggests the club\u2019s recruitment has been
\nsuccessful.<\/p>\n

Strengthening the first XI of a team who had just finished
\nsecond in the Premier League for a third successive season was
\nalways going to be a tough task, but
\nMart\u00edn Zubimendi<\/a> has strengthened their midfield. He sits in
\nfront of the defence, breaks up play and distributes the ball
\neffectively, while also adding an attacking threat of his own,
\nhaving scored twice in seven appearances.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, Arsenal have mainly added depth, but each of Eberechi
\nEze<\/a>, Noni
\nMadueke<\/a>, Viktor
\nGy\u00f6keres<\/a> and
\nCristhian Mosquera<\/a> could yet prove to be first-XI players. They
\nhave all provided value by covering for injured first-teamers in
\ntheir short time in north London. Kepa
\nArrizabalaga<\/a>,
\nChristian N\u00f8rgaard<\/a> and Piero
\nHincapi\u00e9<\/a> are also good additions.<\/p>\n

Injuries have been a significant contributing factor in Arsenal
\nnot quite getting over the line in the league or Champions League
\nunder Arteta, and that was particularly evident last season, when
\nthey suffered in the absence of Martin
\n\u00d8degaard<\/a>, Bukayo
\nSaka<\/a> and Kai
\nHavertz<\/a>. In 2022-23, their title challenge fell apart when
\nWilliam
\nSaliba<\/a> missed the run-in with a back injury.<\/p>\n

This season, they have already had to make do without each of
\nthem due to injury, and for a period without all four, after Saliba
\nlasted only four minutes of their trip to Anfield before being
\nforced off.<\/p>\n

In the absence of those players this time around, Arsenal
\nhaven\u2019t looked anything like as badly off as they have been
\npreviously. Eze adds some creative spark they lack without
\n\u00d8degaard; Madueke is probably the best back-up right-sided attacker
\nin the country; 21-year-old Mosquera looks like a bargain at \u00a313
\nmillion, having taken to life in the Premier League so ably.<\/p>\n

Gy\u00f6keres is the only one of those four for whom the jury remains
\nout, but even if goals haven\u2019t flowed as freely as he, Arteta or
\nany Arsenal fan would have liked, he is still creating space with
\nhis movement and occupying defenders consistently.<\/p>\n

He has made more off-ball runs into the opposition\u2019s box (49)
\nthan any other player in the Premier League this season, and is
\nclearly working hard to make this move a success. It\u2019s also worth
\nmentioning that he is Arsenal\u2019s top scorer in Premier
\nLeague games with three goals, so it\u2019s not like he\u2019s made a bad
\nstart. That said, when Havertz does return, it will be interesting
\nto see who Arteta opts for up front.<\/p>\n

\"Viktor<\/p>\n

In essence, the greater strength in depth has made Arsenal less
\nreliant on any individual player. Losing Saka or Saliba isn\u2019t felt
\nanything like as severely, though the biggest challenge may come in
\nthe next few weeks. With \u00d8degaard out with a knee injury, Eze will
\nneed to step up and start reproducing the form he showed at Crystal
\nPalace last season.<\/p>\n

Although Arteta would never have wished for them, all these
\ninjuries have helped Arsenal in one sense. They have allowed the
\nnew players who were expected to be on the fringes of the first
\nteam game time they wouldn\u2019t otherwise have got. Arsenal now go
\ninto the bulk of the season knowing there\u2019s less reason to fear an
\ninjury to a key player.<\/p>\n

The biggest threats to Arsenal\u2019s season are probably \u00d8degaard\u2019s
\ninjury turning out to be more serious than first feared and Eze not
\nproving an adequate replacement, or Gy\u00f6keres failing to find his
\ngoalscoring touch. But they do look better set up to contend with
\neither of those concerns.<\/p>\n

Another potential issue, however, is the fine margins this team
\ncan risk playing with. They are slightly more risk-averse than
\ntheir title rivals, and that has played out this season as them
\nbeing a little too reliant on their water-tight defence.<\/p>\n

What that means is, when they do concede, they can struggle. In
\nthe three games they have conceded a goal this season, they have
\neither dropped points, as was the case against Liverpool and
\nManchester City, or very, very nearly dropped points, as was the
\ncase against Newcastle before Gabriel Magalh\u00e3es\u2019
\ninjury-time winner<\/a>. They also needed a last-gasp equaliser to
\ntake a point off City.<\/p>\n

As Liverpool have found in the last couple of weeks, relying on
\ninjury-time winners, as they did in the early part of the season,
\nisn\u2019t sustainable.<\/p>\n

What Arsenal are doing, however, does look rather more reliable.
\nThey are top of the Premier League and they deserve to be, too,
\naccording
\nto Opta\u2019s expected points model<\/a>, which uses expected goals data
\nto assess how each game \u2018should\u2019 have finished based on the quality
\nof chances each team created. Arsenal are the only team in the
\nPremier League who are currently in the exact position the model
\nsays they deserve to be.<\/p>\n

In part because of that, following last weekend\u2019s deposing of
\nLiverpool at the top of the actual table, the Opta
\nsupercomputer now makes Arsenal favourites to win the title. They
\nare victorious in 44.0% of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the
\nseason run by the supercomputer. So, in almost one in every two
\nsimulations, there was no overturning Arsenal\u2019s one-point lead
\nafter seven matchdays.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve been top before. They\u2019ve also been the supercomputer\u2019s
\nfavourites for the title before, too. However, they haven\u2019t been
\ntop since 13 May 2024, when second-placed City had a game in hand
\non them, and they haven\u2019t been favourites to win the league with
\nthe supercomputer since 9 April 2023, at the end of 2022-23, when
\nthey fell apart without Saliba.<\/p>\n

But this time, things feel different. They are different. In a
\ntitle race packed with flaws, they are the least flawed team, and
\nby some distance. They have been the best team in the league this
\nseason. There\u2019s good reason they\u2019re favourites.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s still incredibly early on in the season \u2013 obviously far too
\nearly to call the title race. But Liverpool had the lead from
\nMatchday 10 onwards last season, and there is a chance Arsenal
\ncould hold on to it from even earlier this time around. On the
\nevidence of their very solid start to 2025-26, they don\u2019t look much
\nlike giving up their lead.<\/p>\n


\n\"Premier<\/a><\/p>\n

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