It continues to make impressive progress in international territories. And while growth in the more mature US market is slowing, there\u2019s still a large addressable patient population not on therapy. <\/p>\n
Getting approvals for additional medical conditions is a key lever to pull on here. Novo\u2019s had recent wins on that front for liver disease and cardiovascular risk, and early research is emerging for positive impacts on neurodegenerative disorders like Parkinson\u2019s and Alzheimer\u2019s disease. <\/p>\n
But new CEO Mike Doustdar has his work cut out if he\u2019s to win back investors trust after a series of profit warnings this year. Key short-term drivers to watch out for include the expected launch of an oral version of its flagship medication, semaglutide. We\u2019re also hopeful that Novo will make progress with legal action to curtail copycat sales of its products.<\/p>\n
In both cases there are no guarantees of success, but we believe there\u2019s significant downside priced into the current valuation. Analyst forecasts for next year have already cratered, reflecting both legitimate and illegal competitive threats as well as downward pressure on pricing. If the company can meet these lowered expectations, we\u2019d expect to see an improvement in investor sentiment.<\/p>\n
Prices delayed by at least 15 minutes<\/p>\n
Prices delayed by at least 15 minutes<\/p>\n
GSK \u2013 bridging the expectations gap<\/p>\n
Despite the noise in the market, GSK<\/a> is on track to meet this year\u2019s upgraded expectations. Investors are now looking to CEO designate Luke Miels to deliver on outgoing boss Emma Walmsley\u2019s target of growing annual sales to \u00a340bn by 2031. That implies an average growth rate of around 3.5% per year compared to the last reported numbers. <\/p>\n The market remains to be convinced, with consensus forecasts earmarking average growth of less than 2%. The gap reflects concerns about the group\u2019s ability to replace revenue from a loss of exclusivity for one of its leading HIV treatments. But it\u2019s a disease area where the group is rapidly evolving its products. <\/p>\n We also see strong prospects in the wider pipeline, with 15 major product launches planned by 2031. While the risks inherent with drug development mean the 2031 target\u2019s not a slam dunk, we see scope for further upgrades to that ambition along the way. <\/p>\n We think the valuation broadly mirrors the group\u2019s near-term prospects. But if clinical and commercial progress can provide the market with more comfort around the longer-term view, there\u2019s scope for some upside. In the meantime, there\u2019s a 4.2% forward dividend yield<\/a> on offer, which looks well supported to us, although not guaranteed. <\/p>\n Parties related to the author hold shares in GSK.<\/p>\n Prices delayed by at least 15 minutes<\/p>\n Prices delayed by at least 15 minutes<\/p>\n BioMarin \u2013 addressing the root cause of disease<\/p>\n
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