{"id":218487,"date":"2025-10-22T18:41:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T18:41:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/218487\/"},"modified":"2025-10-22T18:41:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-22T18:41:11","slug":"2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-in-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/218487\/","title":{"rendered":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September"},"content":{"rendered":"

The NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 23rd at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2024 at 3.90 million SAAR.<\/p>\n

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects<\/a> the NAR to report sales of 4.00 million SAAR for September.<\/p>\n

September sales will be mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates averaged 6.72% in July and 6.59% in August (lower than for closed sales in July).<\/p>\n

In September, sales in these markets were up 8.2% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 2.5% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).<\/p>\n

Important: There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).<\/p>\n

Notes for all tables:<\/p>\n

New additions to table in BOLD.<\/p>\n

Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS\u00ae<\/a><\/p>\n

Totals do not include Atlanta and Denver (included in state totals)<\/p>\n

Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For the previous month (August), there were one fewer working days in August 2025 (21) as in August 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was positive while the NSA data showed a decline (there are other seasonal factors).<\/p>\n

Sales in all of these markets are down sharply compared to September 2019.<\/p>\n

This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2024 were at 3.90 million SAAR, the low for the year.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

This data suggests that September existing sales (as reported by the NAR) will be up year-over-year. <\/p>\n

For these areas, new listings were up 6.6% year-over-year.<\/p>\n

Last month, new listings in these markets were down 3.6% year-over-year.<\/p>\n

New listings have slowed and are still down compared to September 2019 activity for these markets.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Inventory was up 18.8% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 20.4% YoY. <\/p>\n

Comparing to September 2019, inventory is up sharply in Phoenix and Jacksonville and down in Maryland and San Diego. There are significant regional differences in inventory.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

More local markets to come after the NAR release.<\/p>\n

Thanks for reading CalculatedRisk Newsletter! This post is public so feel free to share it.<\/p>\n

Share<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 23rd at 10:00 AM. The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":218488,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[84,467,56,54,55],"class_list":["post-218487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-markets","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-unitedkingdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=218487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218487\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/218488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=218487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=218487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=218487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}