Plans to switch off the UK\u2019s TV transmitters and move all broadcasters to internet-only streaming are moving too fast and risk leaving 5.4m UK households without access to any television at all in 2035, a new report has found.<\/p>\n
Mathew Horsman, an independent analyst and former managing director of research firm Mediatique, will warn this week that around 10 million people could lose access.<\/p>\n
The Department of Culture Media & Sport (DCMS) will decide on when to switch off the country\u2019s TV transmitters in 2026, using data from a report by Exeter University that predicts 95% of UK homes will be watching TV online by 2040 and just 1.4 million, mostly older, individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds will depend on terrestrial. In July, the media regulator, Ofcom, insisted a decision early in the year is essential \u201cto manage an inclusive transition\u201d.<\/p>\n
Horsman\u2019s figures paint a gloomier picture of the UK\u2019s digital uptake than the Exeter report. The Digital Poverty Alliance, which campaigns over digital exclusion, thinks the figures are even higher, with nearly 20% of premises to be without adequate connections in 2040, owing to inability or unwillingness to pay. \u201cYou can build all the high-speed fibre that you want, but that tends to be more expensive than social tariff broadband, so people can\u2019t afford to take that up,\u201d says CEO Elizabeth Anderson.<\/p>\n
The expected switch-off date of 2035 follows the end of ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5\u2019s current licences in 2034, the same year their contracts with Arqiva, the company that owns the UK\u2019s TV transmitter network, finish. The BBC, meanwhile, enters its charter review with DCMS in 2027 and ends its transmitter contract in 2030. The BBC\u2019s director-general, Tim Davie, said in May that the corporation wanted a switchover \u201cin the 2030s, setting out the conditions and providing certainty to ensure success\u201d.<\/p>\n
The government is being taken along by this consensus view of 2035 \u2026\u00a0 and we\u2019re going down a route with blinders on<\/p>\n
Mathew Horsman, analyst<\/p>\n
\u201cI think the government\u2019s being taken along by this consensus view of 2035 that the BBC is pushing and my fear is that we\u2019re going down a route with blinders on, going hell bent for leather to get to an outcome,\u201d Horsman told The Observer.<\/p>\n
His report suggests commercial public service broadcasters (PSBs) would give up around \u00a3768m in ad revenue by shutting down the premium they can charge on broadcast ads. \u201cEarly switch-off could also threaten universality, eroding justification for the universal licence fee,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n
The report was funded by Arqiva, but Horsman insists \u201cthis has nothing to do with protecting its interests\u201d.<\/p>\n
He proposes slimming down the transmitter network from six so-called \u201cmuxes\u201d \u2013 the technology that carries multiple TV channels on a single frequency \u2013 to three, reducing broadcasters\u2019 transmission costs and extending broadcast TV to 2045.<\/p>\n
The switch to digital is a critical part of the government\u2019s plan to deliver NHS, DWP and even education services online. Shutting down TV transmissions frees up space in the spectrum for improved mobile phone coverage, amongst other things.<\/p>\n
A spokesperson for the PSB group Future TV Taskforce told The Observer delivering television over the internet in the mid-2030s \u201chas the potential to close the digital divide once and for all\u201d.<\/p>\n
They added the shift is already being led by consumers, and that \u201cthis isn\u2019t about forcing something through, it\u2019s about transitioning in a planned, organised way,\u201d so that \u201cno one is left behind\u201d.<\/p>\n
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