In this episode of Space Minds, host David Ariosto speaks with Doug Hendrix, co-founder and CEO of ExoAnalytic Solutions \u2014 a company born from three physicists\u2019 passion for solving hard problems in space.<\/p>\n
Hendrix shares how ExoAnalytic grew from missile defense algorithms to building a global telescope network that tracks thousands of objects in orbit, providing vital insights into space debris, collisions, and threats. Together, they explore how commercial innovation, AI, and automation are reshaping space domain awareness, the rising challenges of orbital congestion, and what a future space conflict might really look like. Hendrix also reflects on how science fiction and the Apollo era first inspired his lifelong pursuit of the final frontier.<\/p>\n
Click here for Notes and Transcript<\/p>\n
Time Markers<\/p>\n
00:00 \u2013 Episode introduction
00:31 \u2013 Welcome Doug
00:50 \u2013 Origin story
03:47 \u2013 Starting the company
05:29 \u2013 The shifting geopolitical landscape
08:53 \u2013 Contract models
10:23 \u2013 Space domain awareness & Intelsat 33E
13:17 \u2013 A global telescope network
15:04 \u2013 Debris size being tracked
18:21 \u2013 Public vs. private responsibility
21:17 \u2013 Government mandates
22:56 \u2013 Our reliance on space assets
25:21 \u2013 AI, automation & the future of SDA
28:38 \u2013 The human element in the equation
30:05 \u2013 Hypersonic missiles & humans in the loop
32:45 \u2013 Personal inspiration<\/p>\n
Transcript \u2013 Doug Hendrix Conversation<\/p>\n
This transcript has been edited-for-clarity.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 Doug Hendrix, you are the co-founder and CEO of ExoAnalytic Solutions, and you also just so happen to have a PhD in physics from the University of California, Irvine. Thanks so much for joining us here on Space Minds.<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 Thank you. Thanks for having me.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 On that last point, I kind of want to get into that, because your company, ExoAnalytic Solutions, was founded back in 2008 by three career physicists. And it\u2019s interesting to me in the context of the emerging commercial space industry \u2014 this new era that\u2019s relatively recent, at least in the history of space \u2014 that the MBAs of yesteryear don\u2019t populate as many space companies as one might expect. There are a lot of PhDs instead. I wonder if you can get into that \u2014 not only ExoAnalytic\u2019s origin story, but how it fits into the broader commercial shift.<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 Going back a bit further, I got my start in the industry in the late \u201980s working on nuclear weapons effects and hypervelocity impacts for programs like THAAD and Patriot. Then the Berlin Wall came down, and the writing was on the wall for everything I was doing. So I went back to grad school and started my PhD in space plasma physics.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve always liked having multiple things going on, so during grad school I started writing a multiplayer online space combat game. I eventually published it. I\u2019ve always had an interest in space.<\/p>\n
When I finished graduate school \u2014 where I\u2019d studied with one of my co-founders, Mike Van Tiel \u2014 I returned to the defense industry in missile defense and met my other co-founder, who had just finished her master\u2019s in physics. We worked together, eventually brought in our third co-founder \u2014 I actually rescued him from the gravity lab at UC Irvine \u2014 and together we worked on algorithms for missile defense interceptors and remote sensing for tracking missiles.<\/p>\n
We noticed that \u201cTech 1.0\u201d was booming in the \u201990s, and all my undergrad friends in Silicon Valley were becoming millionaires on stock options. We decided that with everyone leaving defense for tech, we\u2019d be the only smart ones left in defense \u2014 that was our plan.<\/p>\n
When the company we worked for was sold, we branched out and started our own. Did we know how to run a business? Almost nothing. If you\u2019re starting a company, you need three people: one to build things, one to sell things, and one to run things. Holly, our third co-founder, became the one who ran the nuts and bolts. We were faking it at first.<\/p>\n
Space was in a bit of a lull. Missile defense was waning, but we focused on developing the best technology for the hardest problems. Around that time, General Shelton, then commander of Space Command, said he needed real-time command and control and automation to fight a future space war. He didn\u2019t say \u201cAI,\u201d but that\u2019s what he meant. We realized that was exactly what we\u2019d been doing in missile defense. So we decided to take all that technology and apply it to space surveillance.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 You talk about the shifting geopolitical landscape. I\u2019d venture to guess this is something of a heyday for missile defense, with new technologies from China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran \u2014 and with AI reshaping the defense industry. Would you say that\u2019s a fair characterization?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 Yes, it really is. For the last decade we\u2019ve been watching events in space \u2014 especially from China and Russia \u2014 ramping up and demonstrating capabilities on orbit. Only recently has awareness really hit across the U.S. space enterprise. The threat is real; that\u2019s why we have a Space Force.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re fortunate that around the same time EXO was founded, a small rocket company called SpaceX was also founded. They showed how a commercial company could innovate outside the fences and still contribute to national security. They\u2019re now the largest launcher for U.S. national security \u2014 and the world. With Starlink and Starshield, they\u2019ve proven that commercial innovation can work. And the government has begun to realize that.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 And cost-plus contracts are kind of a thing of the past too. For listeners who might not know, can you explain what cost-plus means and why it\u2019s been criticized?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 Sure. Cost-plus means the government reimburses you for whatever it costs, often baking in delays and overruns. Big contractors thrive on that model. Smaller ones struggle to stay afloat.<\/p>\n
Now we\u2019re seeing firm fixed-price and performance-based contracts. For example, the space-based interceptor for \u201cGolden Dome\u201d is built around companies pitching ideas, investing their own funds, and if selected, they move on to the next phase and eventually a production contract. It\u2019s a great way to tap industry innovation.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 A lot of what you and your company do involves dual-use technology \u2014 both civilian and defense. I want to point to the Intelsat 33E satellite that broke up in geostationary orbit last year. You were quoted at the time saying ExoAnalytic had tracked 57 pieces of debris. Can you walk us through what happened that day and what space domain awareness really means?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 Sure. I woke up on a Saturday morning, checked our system \u2014 it\u2019s always running \u2014 and saw chatter about Intelsat 33E. A customer said it wasn\u2019t responding. I pointed a telescope at it and found six objects where it used to be. We realized something catastrophic had happened.<\/p>\n
We have a global network of 400 telescopes, fully automated, that updates catalogs, looks for conjunctions, and warns customers. That day I manually analyzed what was happening \u2014 before brunch I\u2019d identified 57 objects. Later we tracked over 500 pieces, and today more than 1,000. Some were as small as softballs, others as big as beach balls, moving up to a kilometer per second. It was an explosion. Within days, the debris had encircled the globe, increasing the GEO population by about a third.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 To give listeners context, even a fleck of paint can puncture a spacesuit. So when you\u2019re talking about beach-ball-sized debris, what kind of danger are we talking about?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 These were in GEO, about 36,000 kilometers up. Nothing reenters from there. Relative velocities of a kilometer per second are enough to destroy a satellite. Within two days, debris had spread around the planet. It\u2019s a real danger. And remember, we still don\u2019t know where every object is \u2014 which is a big challenge for space domain awareness.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 Given cuts at NASA and reduced resources for tracking debris, how do you balance the private sector\u2019s profit motives with society\u2019s need for a safe orbital environment?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 Great question. We don\u2019t make money tracking debris, so we track what we can. No one \u2014 government or private \u2014 is funding the rest. There has to be a business case for expanding coverage. NASA\u2019s Orbital Debris Office and the Office of Space Commerce are trying, but funding is tight. Space Force takes it seriously but mostly in the context of defense.<\/p>\n
If we ever had a kinetic conflict in space, the Intelsat 33E breakup was a preview. One satellite exploding creates chaos; imagine dozens in wartime. It would be catastrophic.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 That\u2019s a fascinating point \u2014 and the global economy is so reliant on space assets, especially GPS. With everyone building their own systems now, does that sense of shared security still exist?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 I think of it like Cold War nuclear deterrence \u2014 everyone loses if satellites start getting blown up. China, Russia, Europe \u2014 they all rely on these systems now. But unintentional debris is still a huge risk. The problem will worsen in low Earth orbit as mega-constellations like Starlink, OneWeb, and Amazon\u2019s Kuiper expand. It\u2019s going to get very crowded.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 So looking ahead \u2014 technologies like AI on orbit, machine learning, quantum sensing, and non-optical sensors \u2014 how do these change the space domain awareness landscape, and what does that mean for ExoAnalytic?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 The numbers are growing, and we\u2019re not tracking everything. We\u2019ll need more sensors \u2014 on the ground and in space \u2014 optical, passive, radar, and more. The more data we have, the more automation and AI we\u2019ll need to process it.<\/p>\n
Our 400 telescopes generate about 20 observations per second. We handle that fine, but to truly monitor all orbits, we\u2019d need to scale that by 100 or 1,000 times. That\u2019s where AI, automation, and machine learning come in \u2014 to process massive amounts of data quickly and reliably.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 You hope \u201cwithout mistakes,\u201d right?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 Right \u2014 there are always mistakes. Our algorithms flag anomalies for human review. About one percent of what we process is seen by a human; 99 percent isn\u2019t. We\u2019re conservative because our reputation depends on reliability. But for life-and-death defense systems, humans still need to be in the loop \u2014 at least at the end.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 But when we talk about hypersonics \u2014 where a missile can cross continents in under ten minutes \u2014 how do you even keep humans in that loop?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 You really can\u2019t. Systems like Patriot and Iron Dome have to be automated as much as possible. The human role is setting parameters, not reacting in real time. You\u2019ve only got minutes \u2014 sometimes seconds. Accuracy has to be nearly perfect. Until interceptors are cheap enough to fire many at once, efficiency is everything. My whole career in missile defense has been about maximizing the probability of kill under those constraints.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 So \u2014 lots of missiles fired, humans out of the loop, algorithms in charge. Got it.<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 (laughs) Not exactly comforting, I know \u2014 but yes, they\u2019re always overhead.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 Let\u2019s end on a more uplifting note. Outside of the work \u2014 what drives you? What got you into physics and space? What still inspires you about this next frontier?<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 I was born in 1966, and for me, the most interesting thing in the world was the Apollo program. Then I learned about Gemini and Mercury \u2014 the whole space program of the \u201960s launched by JFK. I wanted to be an astronaut. Then Star Wars came out \u2014 the most amazing thing ever \u2014 and then Battlestar Galactica. I wanted to be a Viper pilot on a Battlestar.<\/p>\n
I thought I\u2019d go to the Air Force Academy, become a pilot, then an astronaut \u2014 but I didn\u2019t have the discipline. So I went to UC Berkeley and majored in physics because it was the Swiss Army knife of majors. It taught me how to solve problems and simulate space systems.<\/p>\n
I was also deeply inspired by science fiction \u2014 especially Robert Heinlein\u2019s Time for the Stars and The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress. They made me dream about interstellar travel. We\u2019re too young as a civilization to achieve it yet, but that\u2019s still what fascinates me. Meanwhile, I\u2019m doing the next best thing \u2014 contributing to technologies that help humanity navigate and protect space.<\/p>\n
David Ariosto \u2013 PhDs, sci-fi lovers, the big dreamers \u2014 they really do define the new commercial space. Doug Hendrix, co-founder and CEO of ExoAnalytic Solutions, it\u2019s been a pleasure having you on Space Minds.<\/p>\n
Doug Hendrix \u2013 Thank you very much. I appreciate you taking the time and inviting me on.<\/p>\n
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