{"id":260533,"date":"2025-11-13T13:45:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T13:45:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/260533\/"},"modified":"2025-11-13T13:45:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T13:45:12","slug":"if-the-ai-bubble-does-burst-taxpayers-could-end-up-with-the-bill","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/260533\/","title":{"rendered":"If the AI bubble does burst, taxpayers could end up with the bill"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>You might not care very much about the prospect of the AI bubble bursting. Surely it\u2019s just something for the tech bros of Silicon Valley to worry about \u2013 or the wealthy investors who have spent billions of dollars funding development.<\/p>\n<p>But as a sector, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/topics\/artificial-intelligence-ai-90\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">AI<\/a> may have become too big to fail. And just as they did after the financial crisis of 2008, taxpayers could be picking up the tab if it collapses.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/topics\/global-financial-crisis-447\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">financial crisis<\/a> proved to be very expensive. In the UK, the public cost of bailing out the banks was officially put at <a href=\"https:\/\/researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk\/documents\/SN05748\/SN05748.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u00a323 billion<\/a> \u2013 roughly equivalent to \u00a3700 per taxpayer. In the US, taxpayers stumped up an estimated <a href=\"https:\/\/mitsloan.mit.edu\/ideas-made-to-matter\/heres-how-much-2008-bailouts-really-cost\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">US$498 billion<\/a> (\u00a3362 billion). <\/p>\n<p>Today, the big AI firms are worth way more than banks, with a combined value <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/08\/10\/ai-artificial-intelligence-billionaires-wealth.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">exceeding \u00a32 trillion<\/a>. Many of these companies are interconnected (or entangled) with each other through a complex web of deals and investments worth <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=FSbq0T7j77g&amp;t=19s\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">hundreds of billions of dollars<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And despite a recent study which reports that 95% of generative AI pilots at companies <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/08\/18\/mit-report-95-percent-generative-ai-pilots-at-companies-failing-cfo\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">are failing<\/a>, the public sector is not shy about getting involved. The UK government for example, has said it is going <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/news\/prime-minister-sets-out-blueprint-to-turbocharge-ai\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201call in\u201d<\/a> on AI. <\/p>\n<p>It sees potential benefits in incorporating AI into education, defence and health. It wants to bring AI efficiency to court rooms and passport applications.  <\/p>\n<p>So AI is being <a href=\"https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/research-briefings\/cbp-10236\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">widely adopted<\/a> in public services, with a level of integration which make it a critical feature of people\u2019s day to day lives. <\/p>\n<p>And this is where it gets risky. <\/p>\n<p>Because the reason for bailing out the banks was that the entire financial system would collapse otherwise. And whether or not you agree with the bailout policy, it is hard to argue that banking is not a crucial part of modern society.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, the more AI is integrated and entangled into every aspect of our lives, the more essential it becomes to everyone, like a banking system. And the companies which provide the AI capabilities become organisations that our lives depend upon. <\/p>\n<p>Imagine, for example, that your healthcare, your child\u2019s education and your personal finances all rely on a fictional AI company called \u201cEh-Aye\u201d. That firm cannot be allowed to collapse, because too much depends on it \u2013 and taxpayers would probably find themselves being on the hook if it got into financial difficulties. <\/p>\n<p>Bubble trouble<\/p>\n<p>For the time being though, the money flowing in to AI shows little sign of slowing. Supporters insist that despite the failures, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.popularmechanics.com\/science\/a68205442\/singularity-three-months\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">investment is critical<\/a>. They argue that artificial general intelligence (AGI), the point at which AI acquires human-like cognitive capabilities, will vastly <a href=\"https:\/\/ia.samaltman.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">improve our lives<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p>Others are less optimistic. Commentators including computer scientists <a href=\"https:\/\/garymarcus.substack.com\/p\/the-last-few-months-have-been-devastating\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Gary Marcus<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=21EYKqUsPfg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Richard Sutton<\/a> have cast doubts on the power of AI to become truly intelligent.<\/p>\n<p>In my <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41599-025-05749-0\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">own research<\/a>, I highlight the limitations of large language models (LLMs) when it comes to reasoning. Similar conclusions have been drawn <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Yhsw8RkpO1U\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">at other universities<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/machinelearning.apple.com\/research\/illusion-of-thinking\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">even at tech company Apple<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>            <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Close up of a roulette wheel.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/file-20251107-64-q8zifa.jpg\" class=\"native-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>              Betting everything on AGI.<br \/>\n              <a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shutterstock.com\/image-photo\/casino-roulette-wheel-close-ready-play-2520020587\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Leszek Glasner\/Shutterstock<\/a><\/p>\n<p>So perhaps the endless expansion of the AI bubble comes down to how strongly the AI pioneers believe in its future. They\u2019ve gone pretty far with it, so maybe it makes sense for them to go all in, with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/topic\/Pascals-wager\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">pragmatic kind of faith<\/a> that keeps the bubble growing. <\/p>\n<p>The trouble is that one tech billionaire\u2019s act of faith could also be described as a gamble. And it\u2019s a gamble they <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/video\/openai-wants-federal-backstop-for-new-investments\/4F6C864C-7332-448B-A9B4-66C321E60FE7\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">want everyone to join<\/a>, with taxpayers\u2019 money on the table. <\/p>\n<p>So if the gamble fails and the bubble bursts, who would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/ai-bubble-will-burst\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">bear the costs<\/a>? Would the UK government cut funding from the NHS or siphon money from a cash strapped education sector? Would it bail out <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-10-19\/uk-pension-providers-team-up-in-push-for-infra-ai-investments?embedded-checkout=true\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">pension funds<\/a> that had over-invested in AI?<\/p>\n<p>One thing is certain. The future being offered by AI firms is not guaranteed. Yet governments and businesses are worried they will miss out if they don\u2019t get on board \u2013 and there are no safeguards in place to protect taxpayers from the fallout if things go wrong.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"You might not care very much about the prospect of the AI bubble bursting. Surely it\u2019s just something&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":260534,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[554,733,4308,86,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-260533","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-artificial-intelligence","10":"tag-artificialintelligence","11":"tag-technology","12":"tag-uk","13":"tag-united-kingdom","14":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/260533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=260533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/260533\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/260534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=260533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=260533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=260533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}