NBER<\/a>), the downwards spiral didn\u2019t just start when Britain formally completed the withdrawal process in 2020, but shortly after the referendum result was confirmed more than nine years ago.<\/p>\nIn the aftermath, factors such as \u2018elevated uncertainty\u2019 and \u2018reduced demand\u2019 put the UK on a path towards disaster. Things have only got worse in the last five years, and the NBER believe that the initial impact assessment actually \u2018underestimated\u2019 just how damaging Brexit would be.<\/p>\n
Read it and weep\u2026<\/p>\n
As per their figures, the UK\u2019s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) had fallen by as much as 8% from where it should be since 2016, with the impact \u2018accumulating gradually\u2019 as the years have gone by. Investment into the country is also estimated to have dropped sharply, by roughly 12-18%.<\/p>\n
It gets worse. Both employment and productivity have also been severely hampered, with each data set estimated to have been reduced by 3-4% from previous projections within the last decade or so \u2013 which might go a long way towards explaining the general malaise Britain is experiencing.<\/p>\n
Brexit reset talks stall \u2013 as new impact assessment lays impact bare<\/p>\n
Keir Starmer and the Labour leadership prioritised a Brexit \u2018reset\u2019 in the early days of his premiership \u2013 but things have cooled on that front in recent months. As our exile from the EU continues, researchers at the NBER outline how \u2018large, negative impacts\u2019 will continue to harm the UK<\/p>\n
\u201cUsing almost a decade of data since the referendum\u2026 These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cComparing these with contemporary forecasts \u2013 providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions \u2013 shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.\u201d | NBER<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"We all knew it was bad. But the true extent of the damage caused by Brexit is beginning…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":266925,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[934,84,1294,56,54,55],"class_list":{"0":"post-266924","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-brexit","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-uk","12":"tag-united-kingdom","13":"tag-unitedkingdom"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266924","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=266924"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266924\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/266925"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=266924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=266924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=266924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}