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The market\u2019s focus today is on the September payroll report, says Mohit Kumar of investment bank Jefferies:<\/p>\n
Even though it\u2019s old, market would be watching for any clues around the health of the US employment picture. Consensus expectation is for 51K for NFP. From a markets\u2019 perspective, close to consensus should be the sweet spot. Both a too high or a too low number would be perceived as negative by the market.<\/p>\n
Share<\/a>US jobs report: a preamble<\/p>\n We\u2019re about to, finally, get some official insight into how the US jobs market fared at the end of the summer.<\/p>\n September\u2019s non-farm payroll is due to be released at the bottom of the hour, almost seven weeks late, due to the US government shutdown.<\/p>\n Economists have predicted that the report will show that hiring picked up after a slowdown in August. Payroll growth is forecast to have risen to around 50,000 in September, more than doubling the August increase of just 22,000.<\/p>\n The health of the US labor market is a key factor determining whether the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates next month.<\/p>\n So while the data is rather stale, it is also important for the markets.<\/p>\n Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, explains:<\/p>\n The shutdown stole October\u2019s NFP, November won\u2019t land until after the Fed meets, and [Fed chair Jerome] Powell is now flying the world\u2019s biggest monetary aircraft with half the instruments frozen. When the pilot can\u2019t see the runway, everyone in the cabin trades the turbulence.<\/p>\n Tomorrow\u2019s release of the September NFP \u2013 a 10-week-old fossil \u2013 has been absurdly elevated into the sole guidepost for a data-starved market. In FX, this kind of void amplifies every whisper into a roar.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a008.38 EST<\/p>\n US retail giant Walmart has raised its annual forecasts for the second time this year, and reported another strong quarter of online sales.<\/p>\n The company reported growth in US comparable sales, which includes online and stores, of 4.5% for the August through October period, above estimates for 3.8% growth.<\/p>\n It is now forecasting that annual net sales to rise 4.8% to 5.1%, up from a prior target of 3.75% to 4.75%.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>UBS: AI capex to almost double to $4.7trn<\/p>\n Artificial intelligence spending commitments could almost double, compared to existing plans, over the next five years, Swiss bank UBS has forecast.<\/p>\n In its 2026 outlook, released this morning, UBS predicts that AI capital expenditure (capex) will remain a driver of near-term growth in the markets, pointing to the opportunities in both \u2018agentic\u2019 and \u2018physical\u2019 AI.<\/p>\n UBS predicts that $4.7trn will be spent on global AI capex between 2026 and 2030, with $2.4trn already planned based on more than 40 announcements disclosed this year alone.<\/p>\n It expects $571bn of this spending to come in 2026 (up from a previous forecast of \u00a3500bn).<\/p>\n For momentum to continue, tech leaders and investors must believe future demand justifies today\u2019s significant investments, UBS point out, adding:<\/p>\n Recent data center expansion means installed chip capacity could support a 25-fold increase in chatbot usage. But it is not just chatbots\u2014 anticipation of the next wave, including agentic AI (multiple specialized agents collaborating to replicate knowledge work), physical AI (robots, autonomous vehicles), and AI video, could drive further capex growth.<\/p>\n Businesses are rapidly becoming major AI users; agentic AI could drive compute demand to five times today\u2019s installed base by 2030. Physical AI could push demand even higher.<\/p>\n With millions of robots already deployed and projections for a million humanoid robots sold annually by 2030, the need for computing power could soar even further.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>UK factory output slumps<\/p>\n Just in: Output at UK factories has fallen at the fastest pace since August 2020 over the last quarter, a new poll has found.<\/p>\n The CBI\u2019s latest Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) had found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to November, with bosses forecasting a similar decline over the next three months.<\/p>\n The poll, which measures how many factories reported higher sales vs lower, found:<\/p>\n Output volumes fell at an accelerated pace in the three months to November (weighted balance of -30%, from -16% in the quarter to October), which saw the sharpest decline since the three months to August 2020. Manufacturers expect output volumes to fall at a similar pace in the three months to February (-30%).<\/p>\n The last three months includes the shutdown at Jaguar Land Rover in September, which pulled down UK growth that month.<\/p>\n Total order books were stable at a historically weak level in November, the CBI adds, with export order books still well below average.<\/p>\n Ben Jones, CBI lead economist, says:<\/p>\n \u201cManufacturers face a challenging end to the year. What\u2019s striking in this month\u2019s survey is how consistently firms link the slowdown to uncertainty ahead of the Budget, with customers delaying purchases and investment until they know what\u2019s coming.<\/p>\n \u201cWith the Budget now just days away, the Chancellor must provide much needed certainty and back the government\u2019s growth mission rhetoric with pro-business policies. For manufacturers, this must include accelerated support to address punitive energy costs and increased Growth and Skills Levy flexibility \u2013 interventions that would boost competitivness, increase confidence, and unlock growth.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Here\u2019s a chart showing how the FTSE<\/a> 100 share index has broken out of a five-day losing run this morning:<\/p>\n A chart showing daily moves on the FTSE 100 Photograph: LSEGShare<\/a>CLA president blasts Labour’s rural economic policy Gavin Lane, the new president of the Country, Land and Business Association, has delivered a blistering attack on Labour\u2019s rural economic policy, as Emma Reynolds the Defra secretary watches on. She looks unimpressed, my colleague Helena Horton reports from the CLA\u2019s annual conference.<\/p>\n Reynolds is due to speak but is not taking questions from the press or live questions from the audience. Defra requested the CLA send her questions from members in advance, presumably so officials could help her write answers to them.<\/p>\n Lane said of the changes to inheritance tax which mean a large number of farmers will find it difficult to hand down their businesses to their children:<\/p>\n \u201cWhether through ideology inexperience, or perhaps a fundamentalist misunderstanding of how family businesses work, this government is treating intergenerational asset transfer as a problem to be solved, rather than the foundation of sustainable long term investment.\u201d<\/p>\n He accused Labour of having \u201ceconomic theories about wealth inequality without grasping the breaking up family businesses can destroy the very stability that we need to solve national challenges.\u201d<\/p>\n Lane said Labour was pursuing business consolidation and courting big international companies rather than supporting small and medium-sized businesses which have seen increased taxes and costs over the past year. Unemployment is up, he added, and investment is down in the rural economy. He added that farmers are needed to meet Labour\u2019s targets to build reservoirs and clean energy such as solar farms and onshore wind.<\/p>\n He added:<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m not sure why these taxation changes have been pursued with such vigor, or why there\u2019s been little time for consultation, but the Treasury has decided that private capital accumulation is the problem, without understanding, in my view, that private capital investment is the solution.\u201d<\/p>\n Lane said that farmers and landowners are not faceless corporations and that the people in the room \u201clive above the shop\u201d and care about their local communities.<\/p>\n Lane added:<\/p>\n \u201cYou can\u2019t ask people to pay to plant an orchard they\u2019ll never see grow. Then tell them their kids aren\u2019t allowed to pick the fruit.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Dr Martens to raise US prices due to Trump tariffs Dr Martens is set to put prices up on some items in the US in January as the British bootmaker attempts to offset the impact of Trump\u2019s import tariffs which it said amounted to between \u00a37m and \u00a39m.<\/p>\n The company is also shifting production for US-destined boots and shoes from Laos to Vietnam where the tariff rate is 20% – half that in its neighbouring country. Such Ije Nwokorie, the chief executive of Dr Martens, told The Guardian that Dr Martens had not put prices up in the US for three years and it would be ensuring it \u201cmaintains competitive advantage\u201d there with careful adjustments on certain lines.<\/p>\n He added that the broadening of Dr Marten\u2019s product assortment – with more shoes, and new boot styles including a new welly ready for next year\u2019s festival season, had helped give a kick to wholesale sales in the US – which rose for the first time in several years in the quarter.<\/p>\n Nwokorie said the UK was not trading significantly differently to other European markets at present with the consumer \u201ccautious right now\u201d and \u201clooking for deals\u201d.<\/p>\n He said Dr Marten\u2019s efforts to reduce discounting in a quite promotional environment had affected the sales line but it was benefiting from a \u201cflight to quality\u201d and people trading down from luxury brands with shoe sales up 33%. \u201cThe consumer is still buying products that meet their needs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, reports that Nvidia\u2019s results have steadied market sentiment, while also giving bearishly-inclined investors something to get their teeth into.<\/p>\n He writes:<\/p>\n \u201cWhile bubble fears won\u2019t be completely dispelled by last night\u2019s Nvidia earnings, signs of robust demand mean that investors are able to see the upside from here. The 15% stock price drop into earnings, and the accompanying 5% drop in indices, seemed to clear the air nicely, taking out some excessively frothy sentiment. Overall the bulls got what they wanted last night, while bearish investors (hello, Michael Burry) will still be able to argue that such exuberant spending will ultimately end in tears.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, Burry (famously portrayed in The Big Short) has posted a chart<\/a> showing all the interlinked deals between AI players:<\/p>\n Every company listed below has suspicious revenue recognition. The actual chart with ALL the give-and-take deals would be unreadable. The future will regard this a picture of fraud, not a flywheel. True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/0XyGQ8FjuE<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) November 19, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n![\"Helena](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1763645953_416_Helena_Horton,_R.png\")
Helena Horton<\/p>\n![\"Sarah](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1763645953_570_Sarah_Butler_Next_Gen.png\")
Sarah Butler<\/p>\n
measures are expected to mitigate half the impact of the tariffs by 2027.<\/p>\n
![\"Lisa](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/1763645953_782_Lisa-OCarroll-byline-004.jpg\")
Lisa O\u2019Carroll<\/p>\n